Minnesota (10-6) at New Orleans (13-3)
When: Sunday, January 5th, 2020
Where: Mercedes-Benz Superdome,
New Orleans, LA
Time: 1:05 ET | TV: FOX
Opening Odds: New Orleans -7.5/46.5
The NFL Playoff action on Sunday shifts over to the NFC and first up is a rematch of a memorable game between the Minnesota Vikings and New Orleans Saints. This is the biggest spread of the four weekend games, as the Saints come in as 8-point favorites against the visiting Vikings. This might be New Orleans’ Drew Brees best last chance to get back to the Super Bowl, as the 41-year-old guided his team to a 13-3 record and an NFC South title. Following the 2017 campaign, New Orleans looked like it was going to upset the Vikings in Minneapolis in the Divisional Round with a 24-23 lead and just a few seconds left. However, the “Minneapolis Miracle” took place with Stefon Diggs catching a 61-yard touchdown pass from Case Keenum as time expired. In last season’s NFC title game in New Orleans, things were just as gut-wrenching, as the officials missed a blatant defensive pass interference call late in the fourth quarter on the Los Angeles Rams. If that’s called, the Saints almost surely are winning that game and play New England in the Super Bowl. They would end up losing in overtime and the NFL was so embarrassed that it now allows challenges by coaches on pass interference penalties or the lack of one being called. These teams last played in the 2018 regular season with New Orleans winning 30-20 at Minnesota. Brees threw for only 120 yards, but Alvin Kamara caught a TD pass and rushed for another. Kirk Cousins threw for 359 and two scores with a pick for the Vikings. The favorite is 5-1 against the spread in the past six meetings.
Minnesota was already locked into the NFC’s No. 6 seed entering Week 17 so Coach Mike Zimmer rested most of his starters in a 21-19 home loss to Chicago. Sean Mannion started under center for Cousins and threw for just 126 yards with two picks. With top running back Dalvin Cook resting, Mike Boone rushed for 148 yards and a TD. Cook hasn’t played since Week 15 due to a shoulder injury but says he’s more than ready for the playoffs. He had a breakout season in rushing for 1,135 yards and 13 TDs in 14 games and is a must for the underdog Vikings. Cousins is 0-1 in his postseason career with that start coming in 2015 with Washington. The defense is fifth in the league in points allowed (18.9), but middle of the pack in yards allowed per game (341.6). The Vikings are 2-6 ATS in their past eight as underdogs.
The NFC was very top-heavy this year and despite the Saints finishing with a 13-3 record, have to play opening weekend as the No. 3 seed. Last year, they also finished 13-3, but were the conference’s top seed. The Saints had a shot at a first-round bye with a win in Week 17 and some help so they played all their healthy starters in a 42-10 blowout win at Carolina. Brees threw for three scores against the Panthers and led the NFL in completion percentage at 74.3, which was 0.1 percent shy matching of his own league record from 2018. Michael Thomas had an MVP-caliber season with a single-season record of 149 catches along with 1,725 yards and nine scores. New Orleans is banged up on defense, with linemen Marcus Davenport and Sheldon Rankins on injured reserve, but rank fourth against the run (91.3). The Saints are 4-1 ATS in their past five as a favorite.
We all know about Cousins’ record in big games and he’s going up against one of the best, but this is a lot of points for a Saints defense. New Orleans has played four playoff teams this season and surrendered at least 27 points in each. I say Cousins and Cook have big games and Minnesota keeps this close.
Pick: Vikings +8 (Wild Card Staff Free Picks)
Vikings are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Vikings are 21-7-2 ATS in their last 30 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Vikings are 38-14 ATS in their last 52 games following a straight up loss.
Vikings are 42-18-1 ATS in their last 61 games on fieldturf.
Vikings are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS win.
Vikings are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 playoff road games.
Vikings are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog.
Vikings are 4-14 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Vikings are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Vikings are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Vikings are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog.
Saints are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Saints are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Saints are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.
Saints are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Saints are 28-10 ATS in their last 38 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Saints are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win.
Saints are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
Saints are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. NFC.
Saints are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games following a ATS win.
Saints are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Saints are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite.
Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 playoff home games.
Saints are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as a favorite.
Under is 5-0 in Vikings last 5 Wildcard games.
Over is 5-0 in Vikings last 5 road games.
Under is 5-1 in Vikings last 6 playoff games as an underdog.
Over is 4-1 in Vikings last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 6-2 in Vikings last 8 games overall.
Under is 19-7-1 in Vikings last 27 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 5-2 in Vikings last 7 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 7-3-1 in Vikings last 11 playoff games.
Over is 7-3 in Vikings last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Under is 11-5 in Vikings last 16 vs. NFC.
Under is 15-7 in Vikings last 22 games as an underdog.
Over is 4-0 in Saints last 4 games following a ATS win.
Over is 4-1 in Saints last 5 games following a straight up win.
Over is 4-1 in Saints last 5 Wildcard games.
Over is 4-1 in Saints last 5 vs. NFC.
Over is 4-1 in Saints last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 7-2 in Saints last 9 playoff games as a favorite.
Over is 22-7 in Saints last 29 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 6-2 in Saints last 8 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 6-2 in Saints last 8 playoff home games.
Over is 13-5-1 in Saints last 19 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Over is 5-2 in Saints last 7 games overall.
Over is 5-2 in Saints last 7 games as a favorite.
Under is 12-5 in Saints last 17 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 9-4 in Saints last 13 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Vikings are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
Over is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings.
Favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
