Minnesota (1-2-1) at Philadelphia (2-2)
When: Sunday, October 7th 2018
Where: Lincoln Financial Field,
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Time: 4:25 ET | TV: FOX
Opening Odds: Philadelphia -1/44.5
The Minnesota Vikings look to get their record back to the .500 mark, but they’ll have to do it in a place that has haunted them in recent visits when they take on the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field Sunday afternoon. This was the site of last year’s NFC Championship Game in which Nick Foles and the Eagles pummeled the Vikings vaunted defense 38-7 en route to their first every Super bowl trophy. Foles is now the backup again behind Carson Wentz, and the Minnesota defense has not been as solid to start the 2018 season. The Vikings have allowed an average of 27.5 points per game, up from a league-best 15.8 a year ago, after a 38-31 loss at the L.A. Rams last Thursday night. On the flip side, the offense has been much better under the leadership of new quarterback Kirk Cousins, ranking 12th in total offense and 5th in passing at 327.2 yards per game. Minnesota ranks just 22nd in points scored 22.5 as the red zone offense has been poor. Philadelphia’s main issues after a 2-2 start is the offensive line. In two games that Wentz has played this season, he’s been sacked nine times, including four last week, and was also hit 11 times in a 26-23 overtime loss to the Tennessee Titans. Through four games this season, the Eagles haven’t scored more than 23 points in a game, and was 1-of-4 in the red zone against the Titans. The Eagles are 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 games at Lincoln Financial Field, while the Vikings are 0-1-1 on the road this season, and 1-5 ATS in the last six meetings in Philadelphia.
Cousins had a big day trying to keep up with the Rams offense last Thursday, passing for 422 yards with three touchdowns and has 12 TDs and three picks in four career meetings at Philadelphia. Cousins has one of the top receiving duos in the league as Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs have a combined 67 receptions and five touchdowns this season. Thielen, who had eight catches for 135 yards and a TD versus the Rams, joined Isaac Bruce and Randy Moss as the lone wide receivers since 1970 to reach triple digits in yards in each of the team’s first four games. Diggs hauled in 11 receptions for 123 yards against Los Angeles and had eight catches for 70 yards in the NFC Championship Game at Lincoln Financial Field last season. Running back Dalvin Cook did not practice on Thursday for a Minnesota team that ranks last in the NFL in rushing yards per game (63.0.
Wide receiver Alshon Jeffery returned in last week’s game at Tennessee after offseason shoulder surgery to make eight catches for 105 yards and a touchdown. Jeffery caught a couple of long touchdowns in last season’s NFC Championship Game against the Vikings. Tight end Zach Ertz recorded his second double-digit reception performance in three games with 10 catches for a season-high 112 yards versus Tennessee. The Eagles rank 26th in points per game (20.5), third in penalty yards (343) and saw their offensive line surrender four sacks to the Titans last week. The defense ranks first against the run, but will need to key on defending the pass – which hasn’t been great thus far, ranking 19th in the league.
Minnesota’s defense hasn’t showed me anything yet this year and they’re going to a place where they got scorched in January. The Eagles offense is putting up good numbers, but the red zone efficiency is not there – yet. I can see that getting corrected very soon and the offensive line will improve to protect Wentz better. Philly is 7-2 ATS in their last nine as a home favorite.
Pick: Eagles -3
Betting Trends:
- Vikings are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Vikings are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Vikings are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Vikings are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 games following a straight up loss.
- Vikings are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games in Week 5.
- Vikings are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Vikings are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games in October.
- Vikings are 17-7 ATS in their last 24 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Vikings are 36-16 ATS in their last 52 games following a ATS win.
- Vikings are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Vikings are 37-17 ATS in their last 54 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Vikings are 44-21 ATS in their last 65 games overall.
- Eagles are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in October.
- Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 5.
- Eagles are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Eagles are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games.
- Eagles are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 vs. NFC.
- Eagles are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss.
- Eagles are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Eagles are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games on grass.
- Eagles are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
- Under is 5-1 in Vikings last 6 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 13-3 in Vikings last 16 games in Week 5.
- Over is 4-1 in Vikings last 5 road games.
- Over is 4-1 in Vikings last 5 games on grass.
- Over is 4-1 in Vikings last 5 vs. NFC.
- Under is 6-2 in Vikings last 8 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Over is 6-2 in Vikings last 8 games following a straight up loss.
- Under is 11-4 in Vikings last 15 games in October.
- Under is 35-16 in Vikings last 51 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Eagles last 4 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 6-1 in Eagles last 7 home games.
- Over is 4-1 in Eagles last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Eagles last 5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Eagles last 5 games following a ATS loss.
- Over is 8-2 in Eagles last 10 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Eagles last 5 games in Week 5.
- Over is 25-9 in Eagles last 34 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 23-9 in Eagles last 32 games following a straight up loss.
- Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
- Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Philadelphia.
- Home team is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
- Vikings are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 meetings.
- Vikings are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Philadelphia.
