Minnesota (85-77) at NY Yankees (91-71)
When: Tuesday, October 3rd 2017
Where: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
Time: 8:05 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: New York -220/8
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After one of the great turnarounds in one season, the Minnesota Twins will need one more victory to get into the American League Divisional Series with the hottest team in Baseball – the Cleveland Indians. Standing in their way are the ‘Baby Bombers’ from the Bronx – the New York Yankees, in the AL Wild Card game from Yankee Stadium on Tuesday night. The Twins became the first team in history to lose over 100 games in one season (103) and qualify for the postseason the next. They are led by a young group of great hitters who ranked seventh in the majors in runs scored (5.03) and a solid defense that committed just 78 errors this season. Slugger Miguel Sano will be activated for this game after coming back over the weekend from a six-week stint on the DL for a stress reaction in his left shin. Brian Dozier leads the team with 34 HRs and 93 RBIs. The Yankees, meanwhile, spent most of the first half atop the AL East, but faded a bit after the All-Star Break before regrouping to earn a Wild Card berth and a home game against Minnesota. New York was 4-2 against the Twins this season including a three-game sweep in the Bronx a couple of weeks ago. The Yankees ended the season with the second-best run differential in MLB at +198, behind on Cleveland (+254) thanks to leading Baseball with 241 home runs and a pitching staff that posted a 3.73 team ERA. Aaron Judge, who won the mid-season Home Run Derby, finished with an American League-leading 52 bombs, while driving in 114 runs. Both teams will send their aces to the mound for this win-or-go-home contest with Luis Severino going up against veteran righty, Ervin Santana. The winner will play in Cleveland on Thursday night.
Pitchers: Twins – Ervin Santana (16-8, 3.28 ERA) | Yankees – Luis Severino (14-6, 2.98 ERA)
Santana, in his 13th year, had a career season with his 16 wins almost matching his high of 17 set in 2010 with the Angels. He also threw a career-best five complete games and three shutouts. Santana’s control wasn’t his best this season and he did allow 31 home runs, but was usually backed with great run support (4.67). He was terrific on the road this season, posting a 10-3 record and 2.71 ERA and 11 of his 17 road starts went under the total. Santana’s only loss since July 21st was at Yankee Stadium on September 18th, when he allowed two runs and seven hits in 5.2 innings.
Severino finished fourth in the AL with 230 strikeouts and logged 193.1 innings. He failed to complete a game in his 31 starts, but has one of the best bullpens in Baseball backing him. Like Santana, Severino was better on the road than in hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium, but his team was 11-5 in his home starts and recorded 6.38 runs per game for him. He was also better at night, posting a 12-4 record and 2.37 ERA under the lights. Severino was not sharp in his September 20th start against the Twins, lasting only three innings, while giving up 5 hits and three runs, but he was also moved up two days for that start, prompting his early exit.
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Severino and the Yankees are heavy favorites in this game, and they should be. There were an American League-best 51-30 at home and won five of six before their meaningless season finale. In those final five victories, New York’s pitching allowed a total of eight runs. Minnesota is an up-and-coming team that will compete with the Indians in the Central for years to come, but they’re not ready yet. Look for the Yankees to add to Santana’s growing home run count and cruise to a Wild Card victory here.
Pick: Yankees -1.5 -114
BETTING TRENDS:
- Twins are 6-1 in their last 7 during game 1 of a series.
- Twins are 7-2 in their last 9 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Twins are 5-2 in their last 7 road games.
- Twins are 5-2 in their last 7 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Twins are 7-3 in their last 10 overall.
- Twins are 7-3 in their last 10 games on grass.
- Twins are 9-4 in their last 13 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Twins are 5-21 in their last 26 playoff games.
- Twins are 1-5 in their last 6 vs. American League East.
- Twins are 1-5 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Twins are 1-5 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Twins are 0-6 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Twins are 0-5 in their last 5 playoff road games.
- Twins are 5-0 in Santana’s last 5 Tuesday starts.
- Twins are 4-1 in Santana’s last 5 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Twins are 7-2 in Santana’s last 9 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Twins are 12-4 in Santana’s last 16 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Twins are 5-2 in Santana’s last 7 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Twins are 9-20 in Santana’s last 29 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Twins are 3-7 in Santana’s last 10 starts vs. American League East.
- Yankees are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. American League Central.
- Yankees are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Yankees are 8-0 in their last 8 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Yankees are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Yankees are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Yankees are 7-1 in their last 8 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Yankees are 6-1 in their last 7 during game 1 of a series.
- Yankees are 13-3 in their last 16 home games.
- Yankees are 4-1 in their last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Yankees are 16-5 in their last 21 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Yankees are 18-6 in their last 24 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Yankees are 20-7 in their last 27 games following a loss.
- Yankees are 20-7 in their last 27 games on grass.
- Yankees are 20-8 in their last 28 overall.
- Yankees are 7-3 in their last 10 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Yankees are 13-6 in their last 19 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Yankees are 3-8 in their last 11 games following an off day.
- Yankees are 1-4 in their last 5 playoff home games.
- Yankees are 0-5 in their last 5 playoff games.
- Yankees are 4-0 in Severino’s last 4 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Yankees are 4-0 in Severino’s last 4 home starts.
- Yankees are 4-0 in Severino’s last 4 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Yankees are 4-0 in Severino’s last 4 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Yankees are 6-1 in Severino’s last 7 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Yankees are 6-1 in Severino’s last 7 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Yankees are 5-1 in Severino’s last 6 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Yankees are 13-3 in Severino’s last 16 starts.
- Yankees are 4-1 in Severino’s last 5 starts vs. American League Central.
- Yankees are 12-3 in Severino’s last 15 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Yankees are 7-2 in Severino’s last 9 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Yankees are 19-7 in Severino’s last 26 starts on grass.
- Yankees are 3-10 in Severino’s last 13 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Yankees are 1-5 in Severino’s last 6 Tuesday starts.
- Over is 4-0 in Twins last 4 games following an off day.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Twins last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Twins last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 5-1 in Twins last 6 playoff games.
- Under is 4-1 in Twins last 5 on grass.
- Under is 4-1 in Twins last 5 overall.
- Under is 4-1-1 in Twins last 6 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 6-2 in Twins last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 6-2 in Twins last 8 playoff road games.
- Over is 5-2-1 in Twins last 8 road games.
- Under is 5-2 in Twins last 7 vs. American League East.
- Under is 7-3-1 in Twins last 11 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 7-3 in Twins last 10 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 33-16-3 in Twins last 52 games following a win.
- Under is 13-3-1 in Santana’s last 17 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 12-3-1 in Santana’s last 16 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 16-4 in Santana’s last 20 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 12-4-1 in Santana’s last 17 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-2 in Santana’s last 7 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Under is 14-6 in Santana’s last 20 road starts.
- Under is 7-3-1 in Santana’s last 11 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 15-7-3 in Santana’s last 25 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 15-7-1 in Santana’s last 23 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 31-15-2 in Santana’s last 48 starts on grass.
- Under is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 7-1 in Yankees last 8 playoff home games.
- Under is 5-1 in Yankees last 6 on grass.
- Under is 5-1 in Yankees last 6 home games.
- Under is 5-1 in Yankees last 6 overall.
- Under is 4-1 in Yankees last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 7-2 in Yankees last 9 playoff games.
- Under is 7-2 in Yankees last 9 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 9-3 in Yankees last 12 Tuesday games.
- Over is 8-3 in Yankees last 11 vs. American League Central.
- Under is 5-2 in Yankees last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 20-8-1 in Yankees last 29 games following a loss.
- Under is 5-2 in Yankees last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Over is 7-3 in Yankees last 10 games following an off day.
- Over is 7-3 in Yankees last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-0 in Severino’s last 4 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 5-0 in Severino’s last 5 starts vs. American League Central.
- Over is 8-1 in Severino’s last 9 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Over is 7-1 in Severino’s last 8 home starts.
- Over is 6-1 in Severino’s last 7 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Over is 6-1 in Severino’s last 7 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 10-2 in Severino’s last 12 starts on grass.
- Over is 10-2 in Severino’s last 12 starts overall.
- Over is 5-1 in Severino’s last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-1 in Severino’s last 5 Tuesday starts.
- Over is 4-1 in Severino’s last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 4-1 in Severino’s last 5 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 7-3-1 in Severino’s last 11 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings.
- Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in New York.
- Twins are 17-50 in the last 67 meetings.
- Twins are 14-42 in the last 56 meetings in New York.
