Minnesota (78-71) at NY Yankees (82-67)
When: Monday, September 18th 2017
Where: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
Time: 7:05 ET | TV: MLB Network
Opening Odds: New York -155/9.5
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In what could be a preview of the American League Wild Card game, the Minnesota Twins visit the New York Yankees to open a three-game series on Monday night in the Bronx. The Twins start an 10-game road trip on Monday and are four games behind New York in the Wild Card race and two ahead of the L.A. Angels with 13 games remaining. After New York, Minnesota will have three games remaining with the Indians and seven with lowly Detroit. Minnesota collected 16 hits, including a grand slam by Joe Mauer, en route to a 13-7 victory over Toronto on Sunday to salvage a split of the four-game series. Eddie Rosario (two) and Byron Buxton also homered among three hits and two RBIs apiece for the Twins. Mauer needs one double to reach 400 in his career and is two runs away from tying Rod Carew (950) for third place in Twins history. The Yankees may hold a four-game lead for the first wild card, but still have their sights set on the Boston Red Sox, who they trail by three games in the AL East. New York lost two of three at Minnesota in mid-July, with Didi Gregorius hitting the only homer in the series for the club, and the shortstop has gone deep in each of his last three games to push his career-best totals to 24 HRs and 81 RBIs. The Yankees shuffled their rotation in order to give Jaime Garcia the start on Monday against the team from which they acquired him in late July, while the Twins counter with ace Ervin Santana.
Pitchers: Twins – Ervin Santana (15-7, 3.35 ERA) | Yankees – Jaime Garcia (5-9, 4.35)
Santana is unbeaten in his last 10 starts, but has recorded just four victories in that span. He struck out seven over six scoreless innings in a no-decision versus San Diego last time out. Santana is 9-2 with a 2.74 ERA and three complete games in 14 starts on the road this year. Matt Holliday (5-for-12, two homers) and Greg Bird (2-for-3, two homers) have given Santana trouble and he’s is 6-9 lifetime against the Yankees.
Garcia earned the victory in his lone start with Minnesota before being shipped to New York, where he has gone 0-2 with a 4.60 ERA in six starts. Garcia has allowed one earned run in each of his last two turns but only was able to work a total of 9.2 innings due to pitch counts. Jason Castro has homered against Garcia, who pitched six scoreless innings in his only career start versus the Twins.
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I know most people will be watching the Lions vs. Giants game on ESPN, but this contest will have a feel of October as both teams appear to be headed to a one-game playoff in a few weeks. Santana has been terrific all year and is pretty solid on the road. The Twins are knocking the cover off the ball with homers in 16 straight games. I’ll take the road dog in this one.
Pick: Twins +150
BETTING TRENDS:
- Twins are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Twins are 6-2 in their last 8 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Twins are 5-2 in their last 7 during game 1 of a series.
- Twins are 7-3 in their last 10 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Twins are 13-6 in their last 19 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Twins are 3-9 in their last 12 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Twins are 1-4 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Twins are 4-1 in Santana’s last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Twins are 4-1 in Santana’s last 5 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Twins are 4-1 in Santana’s last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Twins are 7-2 in Santana’s last 9 starts.
- Twins are 7-2 in Santana’s last 9 starts on grass.
- Twins are 10-4 in Santana’s last 14 road starts.
- Twins are 10-4 in Santana’s last 14 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Twins are 4-9 in Santana’s last 13 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Twins are 2-5 in Santana’s last 7 Monday starts.
- Yankees are 5-0 in their last 5 games following a loss.
- Yankees are 5-0 in their last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Yankees are 5-0 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Yankees are 7-1 in their last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Yankees are 5-1 in their last 6 home games.
- Yankees are 4-1 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series.
- Yankees are 4-1 in their last 5 overall.
- Yankees are 4-1 in their last 5 Monday games.
- Yankees are 4-1 in their last 5 games on grass.
- Yankees are 6-2 in their last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Yankees are 13-6 in their last 19 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Yankees are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. American League Central.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Twins last 5 Monday games.
- Under is 4-0 in Twins last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Twins last 4 games following a win.
- Under is 4-1 in Twins last 5 overall.
- Under is 4-1 in Twins last 5 on grass.
- Over is 5-2 in Twins last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Over is 5-2 in Twins last 7 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 22-9-1 in Twins last 32 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 9-4 in Twins last 13 vs. American League East.
- Under is 7-1 in Santana’s last 8 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-1 in Santana’s last 6 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1-2 in Santana’s last 7 Monday starts.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Santana’s last 6 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 3-1-1 in Santana’s last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 6-2-1 in Santana’s last 9 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 10-4-1 in Santana’s last 15 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 5-2 in Santana’s last 7 starts vs. American League East.
- Under is 12-5 in Santana’s last 17 road starts.
- Under is 29-14-2 in Santana’s last 45 starts on grass.
- Over is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 on grass.
- Over is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 home games.
- Over is 6-1 in Yankees last 7 vs. American League Central.
- Over is 6-1 in Yankees last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-1 in Yankees last 5 games following a loss.
- Over is 7-2 in Yankees last 9 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 5-2 in Yankees last 7 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 7-3 in Yankees last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Over is 7-3 in Yankees last 10 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.
- Twins are 17-47 in the last 64 meetings.
- Twins are 14-39 in the last 53 meetings in New York.
