Tennessee (10-7) at Baltimore (14-2)
When: Saturday, January 11th, 2020
Where: M&T Bank Stadium,
Baltimore, MD
Time: 8:15 ET | TV: CBS
Opening Odds: Baltimore -10/48
Now that wild card weekend is complete, we finally get to see the top teams in each conference take the field. We have the best of the best Saturday night in prime time as the 14-2 Baltimore Ravens host the upstart Tennessee Titans in an AFC Divisional matchup to see who goes to the conference championship game. The Ravens ran through the AFC this season, posting 7-1 records both home and away and are led by MVP favorite Lamar Jackson, who helped Baltimore to an NFL-best 206 rushing yards per game and 33.2 points. While Jackson hasn’t played since a Week 16 win over Cleveland, the Titans are coming off an upset win last weekend over the New England Patriots in what could have been Tom Brady’s last game with the team, or possibly ever. Tennessee was third in rushing this season and running back Derrick Henry went nuts against New England to the tune of 182 yards on 34 carries and a touchdown in the 20-13 triumph. It’s the first postseason matchup between these franchise since 2009 when Baltimore won 13-10 in Nashville. The Ravens then dropped the AFC title game in Pittsburgh. The Ravens visited Tennessee in Week 6 last season and won 21-0. Lamar Jackson hadn’t yet taken over as Baltimore’s starting quarterback, as Joe Flacco threw for 238 yards with a touchdown. Marcus Mariota threw for just 117 yards for the Titans and was sacked 11 times. He’s no longer the starter for Tennessee, as Ryan Tannehill has completely taken over the job. The Ravens are 3-1-1 against the spread in the past five meetings, while the under is 5-0-1 in the past six in Baltimore.
Tannehill didn’t have to do much last week against the Patriots with Henry and the defense carrying the load and completed just 8-of-15 passed for 72 yards and a touchdown and interception. The Tennessee defense, which at times this season was very leaky, didn’t allow a TD pass to Brady and returned his only interception for a touchdowns with nine seconds to go. Tannehill, the former Miami Dolphin, now has five wins as a starting quarterback against Brady (5-6). Only Peyton Manning has more. Tennessee has proven to be better on the road this season (6-3 SU/ATS) then at home (4-4). The Titans are 4-0 ATS in their past four road games.
The Ravens not only finished with the NFL’s best regular-season record at 14-2, but are currently on a franchise-record 12 game winning streak. Jackson led the NFL with 36 touchdown passes while also setting the single-season rushing record for a quarterback with 1,206 yards. He’s such a lock to win the NFL MVP that most books have taken the prop off the board. Jackson did not play well in his postseason debut last year, a 23-17 home Wild-Card loss to the Chargers. He was 3-for-9 for just 25 yards through three quarters. The Ravens defense ranks third in the league in points allowed (17.6) and fifth against the run (93.4). Baltimore is 7-1 ATS in its past eight playoff games.
Baltimore is obviously the better team, but that doesn’t necessarily mean a victory. This Tennessee team has been playing well and can eat up the clock with the terrific running game that they have. The Titans are also in a lot better position at quarterback with Tannehill running the show this postseason instead of Mariota. I’ll take the points here.
Pick: Titans +9.5 (NFL Playoff Staff Free Picks)
Titans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on fieldturf.
Titans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
Titans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Titans are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. AFC.
Titans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
Titans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
Titans are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
Titans are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 Saturday games.
Titans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Titans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Divisional Playoffs games.
Ravens are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
Ravens are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win.
Ravens are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 vs. AFC.
Ravens are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Ravens are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win.
Ravens are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 playoff games.
Ravens are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.
Ravens are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on fieldturf.
Ravens are 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Saturday games.
Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Ravens are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games in January.
Ravens are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Ravens are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
Ravens are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Ravens are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite.
Ravens are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 playoff home games.
Under is 4-0 in Titans last 4 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Under is 6-1 in Titans last 7 playoff games.
Under is 5-1 in Titans last 6 playoff road games.
Over is 9-2 in Titans last 11 games overall.
Under is 4-1 in Titans last 5 playoff games as an underdog.
Over is 4-1 in Titans last 5 road games.
Over is 6-2 in Titans last 8 vs. AFC.
Over is 5-2 in Titans last 7 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 5-2 in Titans last 7 games following a straight up win.
Under is 10-4 in Titans last 14 games in January.
Over is 5-2 in Titans last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 5-2 in Titans last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Over is 4-0 in Ravens last 4 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 6-0 in Ravens last 6 playoff games as a favorite.
Under is 6-0 in Ravens last 6 playoff home games.
Under is 8-2 in Ravens last 10 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Under is 4-1-1 in Ravens last 6 games in January.
Over is 5-2 in Ravens last 7 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 5-2 in Ravens last 7 games as a home favorite.
Under is 5-2 in Ravens last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Titans are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Under is 8-3-1 in the last 12 meetings.
Under is 5-0-1 in the last 6 meetings in Baltimore.
