Texas (1-2) at Iowa State (2-1)
When: Thursday, September 28th 2017
Where: Jack Trice Stadium, Ames, IA
Time: 8:00 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Texas -7/64
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The Texas Longhorns will try and rebound from a heart-breaking loss at USC two Saturdays ago, when they visit the Iowa State Cyclones in the Big 12 opener for both schools on Thursday night. Many experts around the country viewed the close road loss to the Trojans (27-24 double OT) as a moral victory for first-year coach Tom Herman, he was having none of it. “They don’t put the L next to that game with a little asterisk that says, “Yeah, but …”. Texas took a 3-point lead with :45 remaining in that game, only to see USC come down to kick a game-tying field goal as time expired in regulation. The Longhorns, who opened the season with a 51-41 home loss to Maryland and followed that up with a 56-0 home victory over lowly San Jose State before falling to the Trojans, defeated Iowa State 27-6 last season in Austin and are 5-1 all-time in Ames. The Cyclones are a 44-41 overtime loss to Iowa away from a 3-0 start, opening the season with a 42-24 home victory over Northern Iowa and winning at Akron 41-14 on September 16th.
Sophomore quarterback Shane Buechele, who passed for 375 yards and two touchdowns and ran for another TD against Maryland, is expected to return to the starting lineup after missing the last two games with a shoulder injury. All-American left tackle Connor Williams (sprained MCL and PCL) won’t be around to block for him on an already thin offensive line. Junior defensive back DeShon Elliott, who had two interceptions and seven tackles against USC, leads a Longhorn defense that has allowed 113 yards rushing over its last two games, including 71 on 37 carries by the Trojans. Texas will host Kansas State and the two Oklahoma schools over the next three weeks.
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Junior quarterback Jacob Park leads the pass-happy Cyclones and ranks 14th in the NCAA in yards per game (311.7) and has four 300-yard passing games in six career starts. He has a terrific target in senior wide receiver Allen Lazard, a preseason All-American who has 19 receptions for 178 yards and three touchdowns and is the active NCAA career leader in consecutive games with a reception (38). Texas is 16-5 all-time in Big 12 openers while Iowa State is 5-16. Iowa State leads the Big 12 and ranks sixth nationally with 26 tackles for loss, an average of 8.7 per game.
TOP 25 FREE PICKS AGAINST THE SPREAD
Although Texas is a few years away from competing for a national title, they’re headed in the right direction and it starts with their defense. I don’t see Iowa State having much success against this stout unit. Texas will create turnovers and a bunch of three-and-outs and come away with an easy victory.
Pick: Texas -6
TRENDS:
- Longhorns are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Longhorns are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Longhorns are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Longhorns are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Longhorns are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Longhorns are 8-23 ATS in their last 31 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Longhorns are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.
- Cyclones are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.
- Cyclones are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Cyclones are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
- Cyclones are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games on grass.
- Cyclones are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games.
- Cyclones are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Cyclones are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
- Cyclones are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Cyclones are 5-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
- Cyclones are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Cyclones are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Cyclones are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Longhorns last 4 road games.
- Under is 5-0 in Longhorns last 5 games following a straight up loss.
- Under is 4-0 in Longhorns last 4 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 9-1 in Longhorns last 10 games overall.
- Under is 8-1 in Longhorns last 9 games on grass.
- Under is 5-1 in Longhorns last 6 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 9-2 in Longhorns last 11 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Longhorns last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Under is 11-3 in Longhorns last 14 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 20-6 in Longhorns last 26 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 25-9 in Longhorns last 34 conference games.
- Under is 19-7 in Longhorns last 26 games following a ATS win.
- Under is 20-8 in Longhorns last 28 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 6-0-1 in Cyclones last 7 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Cyclones last 4 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 10-0-1 in Cyclones last 11 games following a straight up win.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Cyclones last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Over is 4-0 in Cyclones last 4 home games.
- Over is 4-0 in Cyclones last 4 games on grass.
- Over is 5-1 in Cyclones last 6 games overall.
- Over is 5-1 in Cyclones last 6 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 5-1 in Cyclones last 6 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Cyclones last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-1 in Cyclones last 5 games in September.
- Over is 4-1 in Cyclones last 5 conference games.
- Under is 19-7 in Cyclones last 26 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Over is 16-6-2 in Cyclones last 24 games following a ATS win.
- Over is 10-4 in Cyclones last 14 games following a bye week.
- Over is 5-2 in Cyclones last 7 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
