Houston (11-6) at Kansas City (12-4)
When: Sunday, January 12th, 2020
Where: Arrowhead Stadium,
Kansas City, MO
Time: 3:05 ET | TV: CBS
Opening Odds: Kansas City -7.5/48.5
We will know one-half of the AFC Championship Game come Sunday morning when the fourth-seeded Houston Texans visit the No. 2 Kansas City Chiefs in an AFC Divisional game. The Titans and Ravens tangle on Saturday and will play the winner of this contest. Houston was the only home team to win on Wild Card Weekend and would get to host the AFC title game with a win and a Titans upset of the Ravens. The Texans survived an overtime thriller with the Buffalo Bills last Saturday – a game Houston trailed 16-0. The Chiefs finished the regular season strong, winning their final six games (5-0-1 ATS) en route to a first round bye. It’s the second-ever postseason meeting between these franchises. In the Wild Card Round in 2016, Kansas City cruised to a 30-0 win in Houston before losing at New England in the Divisional Round. The Chiefs’ QB then was Alex Smith, while Houston’s was Brian Hoyer. Now the Chiefs and Texans have the two most exciting young quarterbacks in the NFL in Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson, both picked in the first round of the 2017 NFL Draft. Watson and the Texans pulled off a 31-24 upset in Kansas City back in Week 6, but was intercepted twice before rushing for two touchdowns. Carlos Hyde rushed for 116 yards and a touchdown, while Mahomes threw for 273 yards and three touchdowns. Kansas City was up 17-3 after one quarter before faltering. The road team is 6-1 against the spread in the past seven meetings.
The Texans are still one of four active franchises to never play in a Super Bowl, joining Cleveland, Jacksonville and Detroit, and they haven’t even reached an AFC title game yet, going 0-3 all-time in Divisional Round games – all on the road. Watson led a come-from-behind 22-19 overtime win last week over visiting Buffalo by throwing for a score and rushing for one. He also miraculously avoided a sack in overtime and completed a 34-yard pass to help set up Ka’imi Fairbairn’s 28-yard field goal for the win. Three-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year J.J. Watt had been out since around mid-season due to injury but was back and recorded a sack for a Houston defense that ranks 29th against the pass. Houston is just 1-7-1 ATS in its past nine after an ATS win and were 4-2-1 against the spread this season on the road.
The six-game winning streak the Chiefs are on wasn’t going to be enough to get them a first round bye until the Miami Dolphins shocked the New England Patriots in Week 17 as 17-point underdogs. Everyone knows how the Kansas City offense works with Mahomes running the show for a team that averages 28.2 points a game. The defense has been an issue for this team during the regular season and in their recent playoff history, but have seemed to have mended their woes. Since allowing 35 points in a Nov. 10 loss at Tennessee, the Chiefs have held three of their next six opponents to single-digits and none over 21 points.
History is not on the side of the Chiefs as far as covering a number at home during the postseason. Kansas City is 1-9 ATS in their past 10 playoff home games and play better on the road. Houston has their issues on defense as well, but the return of Watt seems to have given them a lift. Watson will battle all the way to the end and at least keep this one close.
Pick: Texans +9.5 (NFL Playoff Staff Free Picks)
Texans are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
Texans are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Texans are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog.
Texans are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 road games.
Texans are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Texans are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Texans are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
Texans are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.
Chiefs are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Chiefs are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Chiefs are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
Chiefs are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.
Chiefs are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
Chiefs are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC.
Chiefs are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 home games.
Chiefs are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Chiefs are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Chiefs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Chiefs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 playoff games as a favorite.
Chiefs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 playoff games.
Chiefs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 playoff home games.
Under is 4-0 in Texans last 4 road games.
Under is 4-1 in Texans last 5 games on grass.
Under is 21-6 in Texans last 27 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 7-2 in Texans last 9 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 13-5 in Texans last 18 games following a ATS win.
Under is 5-2 in Texans last 7 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 5-2 in Texans last 7 games in January.
Under is 7-3 in Texans last 10 games overall.
Over is 9-4 in Texans last 13 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 11-5 in Texans last 16 games as a road underdog.
Under is 22-10 in Texans last 32 vs. AFC.
Under is 5-1 in Chiefs last 6 games overall.
Under is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 games following a straight up win.
Under is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 games as a favorite.
Under is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 playoff games as a favorite.
Under is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 games on grass.
Under is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 vs. AFC.
Under is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 playoff home games.
Over is 10-4 in Chiefs last 14 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 7-3-1 in Chiefs last 11 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 40-18-1 in Chiefs last 59 games as a home favorite.
Under is 11-5 in Chiefs last 16 games in January.
Road team is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
