Seattle (12-5) at Green Bay (13-3)
When: Sunday, January 12th, 2020
Where: Lambeau Field,
Green Bay, WI
Time: 6:40 ET | TV: FOX
Opening Odds: Green Bay -3.5/47
It’s been 10 years since Aaron Rodgers led Green Bay to their last Super Bowl title, but the team is in good position to make another run beginning Sunday in an NFC Divisional battle with the Seattle Seahawks. The Packers were humiliated 37-8 at San Francisco in Week 12, but bounced back by winning their final five games to earn a first round bye, while the Seahawks traveled out East to beat Philadelphia 17-9 in a Wild Card contest. The winner will play Saturday’s Minnesota-San Francisco winner in the NFC title game. Either team would visit the 49ers but host the Vikings. Seattle improved to 8-1 away from home with the win in Philly last week, but will play a Packers team that has only lost once at home this season. Russell Wilson continued his success on the road last week, throwing for 325 yards and a touchdown and adding a team-high 45 on the ground to lead fifth-seeded Seattle to a victory over NFC East champions. The Seahawks have never won multiple road games in a single postseason and lost on two occasions in the playoffs in Green Bay (2004, 2008). The most recent postseason matchup came on Jan. 18, 2015, in Seattle. It looked like the Packers had that won with a 19-7 lead and just over two minutes left in regulation, but the Seahawks were able to rally thanks to a botched onside kick catch attempt by Green Bay’s Brandon Bostick and eventually won it 28-22 in overtime on a Wilson 35-yard pass to Jermaine Kearse. They most recently played Week 11 of the 2018 regular season in Seattle with the Seahawks winning 27-24. The Seahawks are 0-4-1 against the spread in the past five meetings and have dropped eight in a row at Lambeau Field.
The Seahawks got a big break last Sunday when Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz was knocked out in the first quarter with a possible concussion on a borderline dirty hit from defensive end Jadeveon Clowney. No penalty was called and the Seahawks went after backup Josh McCown all afternoon. Rookie receiver D.K. Metcalf continues to shine and had nine catches for 160 yards – the most by any NFL rookie ever in a playoff game. Marshawn Lynch, signed off the street a few weeks ago with the team so ravaged by injury at tailback, rushed for a short score in limited action but head coach Pete Carroll says “Beast Mode” will handle a bigger load this week. Lynch has 10 rushing touchdowns in 12 playoffs games and faces a Green Bay rush defense that surrendered 119.9 yards on the ground per contest this season (22nd). Seattle’s defense allows 263.9 yards a game through the air – 27th in the NFL.
The Packers were one of three NFC division champions to finish 13-3 but lost a tiebreaker for the top seed with San Francisco but won one with New Orleans to earn the No. 2. Rodgers had another typically excellent season in throwing for 4,002 yards with 26 touchdowns and only four interceptions. Running back Aaron Jones tied for the NFL lead with 19 total touchdowns, but his starting right tackle Bryan Bulaga missed Week 17 with a concussion and is questionable for Sunday. Davante Adams missed a 1,000-yard season by three yards this season, but leads the NFL with 40 receiving touchdowns since 2016. The Green Bay defense allowed 20 points or less in their final five games and finished ninth in the league in that category (19.6). Za’Darius Smith recorded a career-high 13 sacks, while fellow linebacker Blake Martinez finished second in the league with 155 tackles.
These teams always seem to play exciting games against each other, whether it’s the regular season or playoffs. I’m expecting another close contest, so taking the four points is a must. Seattle is 11-3-1 ATS in its past 15 road games and are 8-1 SU this season away from home. Give me Russell Wilson and four points.
Pick: Seahawks +4 (NFL Playoff Staff Free Picks)
Seahawks are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a road underdog.
Seahawks are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Seahawks are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 road games.
Seahawks are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games on grass.
Seahawks are 22-8-2 ATS in their last 32 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Seahawks are 28-13-3 ATS in their last 44 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Seahawks are 34-16-3 ATS in their last 53 games as an underdog.
Seahawks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Divisional Playoffs games.
Seahawks are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Seahawks are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Seahawks are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC.
Packers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Packers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Packers are 7-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in January.
Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 playoff games.
Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Over is 10-1 in Seahawks last 11 playoff games as an underdog.
Over is 7-1 in Seahawks last 8 Divisional Playoffs games.
Over is 7-2-1 in Seahawks last 10 games as an underdog.
Under is 3-1-1 in Seahawks last 5 games overall.
Over is 6-2 in Seahawks last 8 games as a road underdog.
Under is 3-1-1 in Seahawks last 5 vs. NFC.
Over is 8-3 in Seahawks last 11 playoff road games.
Over is 7-3 in Seahawks last 10 playoff games.
Over is 7-3-1 in Seahawks last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 9-4 in Seahawks last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Over is 11-5 in Seahawks last 16 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Under is 4-0 in Packers last 4 games overall.
Under is 6-0 in Packers last 6 games following a straight up win.
Over is 4-0 in Packers last 4 games in January.
Under is 5-0 in Packers last 5 games on grass.
Under is 4-0 in Packers last 4 vs. NFC.
Under is 4-0 in Packers last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 5-1 in Packers last 6 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 5-1 in Packers last 6 games as a favorite.
Over is 5-1 in Packers last 6 playoff games.
Over is 4-1 in Packers last 5 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Packers last 5 games as a home favorite.
Under is 4-1 in Packers last 5 home games.
Under is 4-1 in Packers last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Over is 7-2 in Packers last 9 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 5-2 in Packers last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Over is 5-2 in Packers last 7 Divisional Playoffs games.
Over is 15-7 in Packers last 22 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Seahawks are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Green Bay.
Seahawks are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Over is 7-3-1 in the last 11 meetings.
Home team is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings.