TCU (3-0, 0-0) at Oklahoma State (3-0, 0-0)
When: Saturday, September 23rd 2017
Where: Boone Pickens Stadium, Stillwater, OK
Time: 3:30 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Oklahoma State -9.5/65
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A couple of high-powered offenses clash in Stillwater, Oklahoma on Saturday as the 7th-ranked Oklahoma City Cowboys host the 15th-ranked TCU Horned Frogs in the conference opener for both schools. In the first half against Pittsburgh last week, Oklahoma State’s Heisman candidate Mason Rudolph racked up a school-record 423 yards passing with five touchdowns and the Cowboys set a record for total yards in the first half with 516 in building a 49-14 lead at the break. Rudolph is completing 72.3% of his passes with 11 touchdowns versus one interception while averaging 378.3 yards per game in roughly three quarters per game as the Cowboys have scored 54 points per contest TCU, which ranks seventh in FBS in scoring at 49 points per game, moved up five spots in the poll after rallying from a 12-point first-half deficit to SMU for a 56-36 victory behind 365 yards and four TD passes by Kenny Hill. The Cowboys beat the Horned Frogs 31-6 last season behind 334 yards rushing and 207 more through the air by Rudolph, as Hill was limited to 166 yards passing and threw two interceptions. Oklahoma State has won five of the last six games in the series and is 15-10-2 all-time.
Hill has completed 75% of his 84 passes this season – ninth best in FBS – and his QBR rating of 87.6 is eighth best. With Hill’s passing and a running attack led by Darius Anderson (262 yards, 6.2 per carry) that averages 5.4 yards per attempt, TCU leads the nation in third-down conversion percentage at a sizzling 65.8%. The defense gave up 463 total yards and some big plays against SMU but ranks second nationally with three defensive touchdowns. TCU has the third-best road record in FBS since 2009 (34-10) and is 14-9 since joining the Big 12 in 2012.
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Rudolph, who has been sacked just three times, ranks second in FBS in QBR (92.7) behind Oklahoma’s Baker Mayfield and fifth in passer rating (210.3). Justice Hill ran for 91 yards on 11 carries with two touchdowns against Pitt, while receivers Jalen McCleskey (seven receptions for 162 yards and three TDs), James Washington (124 yards), Dillon Stoner (100 yards) and Marcell Ateman (109 yards) became the first FBS foursome since 2005 to surpass 100 yards receiving in one game. Washington is averaging 28.2 yards per reception on 13 receptions this season and 19.9 over his four-year career.
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If you take a look at what these teams did last week, you can pretty much tell who they really are. The Cowboys are for real as they went into Pitt as just 10-point road favorites and humiliated them. TCU struggled for a while with SMU and if they do the same against Oklahoma State, they’ll never catch up. This Pokes offense is just too good for anyone in the Big 12 to stop. I think they roll again.
Pick: Oklahoma State -12.5
TRENDS:
- Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
- Cowboys are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Cowboys are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on fieldturf.
- Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Cowboys are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up win.
- Cowboys are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games in September.
- Under is 4-0 in Horned Frogs last 4 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Horned Frogs last 4 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 6-1 in Horned Frogs last 7 road games.
- Under is 6-1 in Horned Frogs last 7 conference games.
- Under is 5-1 in Horned Frogs last 6 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 5-1 in Horned Frogs last 6 games on fieldturf.
- Under is 5-1 in Horned Frogs last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Under is 4-1 in Horned Frogs last 5 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Horned Frogs last 5 games following a straight up win.
- Under is 6-2 in Horned Frogs last 8 games following a ATS loss.
- Under is 8-3 in Horned Frogs last 11 games overall.
- Over is 7-3 in Horned Frogs last 10 games in September.
- Over is 8-2 in Cowboys last 10 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Cowboys last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Under is 4-1 in Cowboys last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 7-2 in Cowboys last 9 games on fieldturf.
- Over is 6-2 in Cowboys last 8 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 12-4 in Cowboys last 16 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 11-4 in Cowboys last 15 conference games.
- Over is 65-31-2 in Cowboys last 98 home games.
