Phoenix (3-2) at Dallas (2-3)
When: Thursday, May 12th, 2022
Where: American Airlines Center,
Dallas, TX
Time: 9:30 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Phoenix -2/214
The home teams have ruled this year’s NBA Playoffs and the Dallas Mavericks vs. Phoenix Suns series is no different. They say a series doesn’t start until the road team wins a game. Well, if the Suns win at Dallas on Thursday night, the series is over and Phoenix will advance to their second straight Western Conference finals. The Suns dominated Games 1 and 2 in Phoenix, while Dallas won by nine and 10 points respectively in Games 3 and 4 to even the series up. On Tuesday, the series shifted back to the desert and the Suns used a huge third quarter en route to a dominating 110-80 win and 3-2 series lead. Game 6 is set for Thursday night at American Airlines Center with the Suns favored by two points and a total of 212.5.
As I mentioned above, the Suns exploded in the third quarter on Tuesday, outscoring the Mavericks 33-14 and forcing Dallas into 12 turnovers to take a 22-point lead into the fourth quarter. Dallas topped 100 points in each of the first four games before the Phoenix defense stepped up. Dallas shot just 38 percent for the game and a dismal 8-of-32 from beyond the arc. Phoenix also outrebounded the Mavs 50-38, while shooting 49.4 percent for the game. The Under has cashed in each of the last three games in this series and is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings. The Suns have fared well in Dallas before Games 3 and 4, going 9-1 ATS prior to those contests, which they failed to cover.
Devin Booker continues to have a solid postseason and scored 28 points in Game 5, falling just shy of his third 30-point effort of the series. Booker is averaging 26.8 points in the series and is shooting an even 50 percent (16 of 32) from beyond the arc. Deandre Ayton had 20 points on 9-of-13 shooting in just 22 minutes and has shot 50 percent or better in all postseason games this season. Cameron Johnson contributed 14 points off the bench and was a +15. Every Suns player was in the plus for Game 5.
Luka Doncic put up 28 points and 11 rebounds on Tuesday and is averaging 32 points, 9.6 rebounds and 7.4 assists in the series. He’s still looking for more help and Jalen Brunson helped out with 21 points as the backcourt combined for 49 points. However, the rest of the Mavericks totaled 31 points on 8-of-31 shooting. Reggie Bullock started and played almost 35 minutes, but was held scoreless on 0-of-5 shooting and was a -19. The only other double-digit scorer was Davis Bertans off the bench with 10 points and was the only Mavericks player with a positive rating (+1).
I think we all know Phoenix is the better team, but it is really tough to win on the road. Role players perform better at home and that’s what the Mavericks have. I’ll stick with the homecourt advantage in this one and take Dallas.
Check out who Bobby Babowski has on his Free NBA Picks page for today.
Pick: Mavericks +2
