Stanford (3-0) at Oregon (3-0)
When: Saturday, September 22nd 2018
Where: Autzen Stadium,
Eugene, Oregon
Time: 8:00 ET | TV: ABC
Opening Odds: Oregon -1.5/54.5
The high-powered Oregon Ducks offense will get its first test of the season when they open Pac-12 play against the Stanford Cardinal on Saturday night. ESPN GameDay will be live in Eugene Saturday morning to preview the big matchup between two Heisman Trophy contenders in Stanford’s Bryce Love and Oregon’s Justin Herbert. Love missed last week’s win over UC Davis with an undisclosed injury but is expected to start against Oregon, which ranks fifth nationally in rushing defense at 1.96 yards per carry. The Ducks have cruised through the non-conference portion of their schedule with wins over Bowling Green (58-24), Portland State (62-14) and San Jose State (35-22), and are looking to avenge last season’s 49-7 loss at Stanford. Love rushed for 147 yards and two touchdowns in that win over the Ducks but is off to a slow start in 2018 as opponents have been keying on him. Oregon quarterback Herbert, who is tied for second nationally with 12 passing TDs, leads an offense that ranks eighth in the country in scoring at 51.7 points per game. Stanford’s defense should be up to the task after holding their first three opponents to 23 points in wins over San Diego State (31-10), USC (17-3) and UC Davis (30-10). Stanford holds a 48-32-1 lead in the series – including 16-13 in Eugene.
With Love struggling to start the season, the QB/WR combination of K.J. Costello and JJ Arcega-Whiteside have been picking up the offensive slack. Costello threw a pair of scoring passes in last week’s win over UC Davis to Arcega-Whiteside, who has recorded 13 receptions while averaging 24.9 yards per catch on the season. Stanford’s 7.7 average in points allowed ranks them first nationally. The schedule doesn’t get any easier for the Cardinal as they travel to South Bend next week to take on Notre Dame.
Herbert has thrown four interceptions through three games already, and will probably need a little more from running back Tony Brooks-James, who was held to 39 rushing yards in last week’s win. On defense, linebacker Justin Hollins had two tackles for loss, a sack, an interception, a forced fumble and a pass breakup in last week’s win over San Jose State as the Ducks held the Spartans to 29 yards net rushing. Hollins and fellow linebacker Jalen Jelks have combined for 9.5 tackles for loss with 5.5 sacks. Oregon will travel to Cal next week before hosting conference favorite Washington on October 13th.
The Ducks have a pretty explosive offense, but they haven’t seen a defense like Stanford’s yet this season. Herbert has his flaws and mistakes against the Cardinal will prove costly. Look for Love to have his best output of the season and for Stanford to win a tight contest.
Pick: Stanford -2
Betting Trends:
- Cardinal are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Cardinal are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
- Cardinal are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 games following a ATS loss.
- Cardinal are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in September.
- Cardinal are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Ducks are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 conference games.
- Ducks are 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 games overall.
- Ducks are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Ducks are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up win.
- Ducks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
- Ducks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games.
- Ducks are 0-9 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Ducks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games on fieldturf.
- Under is 9-1 in Cardinal last 10 games following a straight up win.
- Under is 4-1 in Cardinal last 5 games in September.
- Under is 7-2 in Cardinal last 9 conference games.
- Under is 10-3 in Cardinal last 13 games overall.
- Under is 24-9 in Cardinal last 33 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Over is 5-2 in Cardinal last 7 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 54-24-1 in Cardinal last 79 games following a ATS loss.
- Over is 8-1 in Ducks last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Under is 5-1 in Ducks last 6 games following a ATS loss.
- Under is 4-1 in Ducks last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 10-3 in Ducks last 13 games following a straight up win.
- Under is 8-3 in Ducks last 11 conference games.
- Over is 53-21-1 in Ducks last 75 home games.
- Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Oregon.
- Over is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings.
