South Florida (9-1, 6-1) at Central Florida (10-0, 7-0)
When: Friday, November 24th 2017
Where: Spectrum Stadium, Orlando, FL
Time: 3:30 ET | TV: ABC
Opening Odds: Central Florida -9/64
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This will be the ninth time the South Florid Bulls and Central Florida Golden Knights have met on the football field, and the stakes have never been higher. The 12th-ranked Knights have been cruising all season long, scoring at least 31 points in all 10 victories while USF’s lone setback came against Houston, but can claim the American Athletic Conference East title and a date with Memphis in the championship game with a win in the I-4 series. The Knights are looking for a little revenge after dropping the last two in the series including last season’s 48-31 loss. Central Florida is led by sophomore quarterback McKenzie Milton, who has thrown for 2,928 yards and 26 touchdowns while completing a blistering 69.6% of his passes for the nation’s top scoring offense (48.2). Senior quarterback Quinton Flowers makes the Bulls offense go with 17 TD passes and nine touchdowns on the ground with a team-high 870 rushing yards. South Florida is tied for second in the nation with 17 interceptions. The Bulls have won six of the eight all-time meetings and have scored at least 44 points in each of the last two.
Flowers will go down as the best offensive player in school history without a doubt, and he just keeps adding to his lore. He has run for at least 119 yards in three of his last four games and is 146 yards away from becoming USF’s all-time leading rusher. His completion percentage is down to 53.5% this season after completing 62.5% in 2016. Flowers isn’t the only rusher of note on the team, as senior running backs Darius Tice (860 yards, 10 TDs rushing) and D’Ernest Johnson (715, seven) contribute, along with senior receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling (48 catches, 737 yards). USF’s defense allows 19.9 points per game, but have surrendered 20 or more in all four road contests. The unit is led by senior linebacker Auggie Sanchez, who has a school-record 378 career tackles.
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Milton, who threw for 225 yards with two interceptions in the loss last year against USF, has not been picked off while tossing six touchdown passes in the last two games. Junior wide receiver Tre’Quan Smith is Milton’s top target with 44 catches for 850 yards and 11 touchdowns, and sophomore running back Adrian Killins Jr. leads the ground game with 629 yards and eight scores. Junior LB Pat Jasinski has at least six tackles in nine straight games and leads the way with 76 for UCF, which leads the nation in turnover margin per game at +1.6.
These are two terrific teams and this is the game of the day on Black Friday. You’ll probably see a lot of scoring, but in the end, I think the Bulls have a great chance of winning this game outright. They’ve won the last two and they’re getting way too many points in this one.
Pick: South Florida +9.5
TRENDS:
- Bulls are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Bulls are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 Friday games.
- Bulls are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Bulls are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
- Bulls are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.
- Bulls are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 conference games.
- Bulls are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
- Knights are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
- Knights are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Knights are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Knights are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 Friday games.
- Knights are 35-17 ATS in their last 52 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Knights are 2-5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Knights are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
- Knights are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
- Knights are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in November.
- Over is 4-0 in Bulls last 4 Friday games.
- Under is 4-0 in Bulls last 4 games on grass.
- Over is 5-0 in Bulls last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 10-2 in Bulls last 12 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-1 in Bulls last 5 games overall.
- Under is 4-1 in Bulls last 5 games following a ATS loss.
- Under is 4-1 in Bulls last 5 conference games.
- Under is 6-2 in Bulls last 8 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 19-7 in Bulls last 26 games in November.
- Over is 4-0 in Knights last 4 games on grass.
- Under is 5-1 in Knights last 6 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Under is 5-1 in Knights last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 8-2 in Knights last 10 Friday games.
- Over is 4-1 in Knights last 5 home games.
- Over is 4-1 in Knights last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Under is 8-2 in Knights last 10 games following a ATS win.
- Over is 5-2 in Knights last 7 games overall.
- Over is 5-2 in Knights last 7 games following a straight up win.
- Bulls are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
- Favorite is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
