When betting on the NBA, choosing between spreads and moneylines is more than a matter of preference—it’s about strategy. Each offers distinct advantages and risks, making it crucial to understand how they work and when to use them effectively. This guide breaks down both options so you can make informed wagers based on your betting style and risk tolerance.
Understanding Spreads vs. Moneylines
Spread betting is ideal when you believe a team will either dominate or keep the game close. Sportsbooks assign a point margin that must be covered. For example, if a team is favored by -6.5, they must win by at least seven for the bet to cash. Conversely, an underdog at +6.5 needs to lose by six or fewer—or win outright—for a successful bet.
One thing to consider when betting spreads is how different sportsbooks set their lines. Platforms like FanDuel are popular among NBA bettors due to their competitive odds and frequent line adjustments based on betting action. Keeping an eye on FanDuel NBA odds can help identify valuable spread opportunities, especially when early movement signals potential sharp action.
The Case for Betting Spreads
Spread betting is ideal when you believe a team will either dominate or keep the game close. Sportsbooks assign a point margin that must be covered. For example, if a team is favored by -6.5, they must win by at least seven for the bet to cash. Conversely, an underdog at +6.5 needs to lose by six or fewer—or win outright—for a successful bet.
Why Consider Spreads?
- Balanced Payouts – Spread bets typically have -110 odds, meaning you risk $110 to win $100. The pricing remains stable, regardless of whether a favorite or underdog is involved.
- Value in Close Games – Even if an underdog loses outright, they can still cover the spread, offering a viable path to profit.
- Less Vulnerable to Heavy Favorites – Instead of taking a risky moneyline bet on a huge favorite, the spread can offer a better return with reduced exposure.
However, betting spreads requires predicting more than just the winner. Unexpected swings, late-game free throws, and garbage-time scoring can make covering the spread unpredictable.
The Case for Betting Moneylines
Moneyline betting keeps things simple: pick the team you think will win. The payout depends on the team’s odds, which are influenced by factors like recent form, injuries, and home-court advantage.
When Moneylines Make Sense
- Higher Probability for Favorites – Betting on a favorite means a higher chance of winning, but the payout can be minimal, especially on heavily favored teams.
- Better Risk Control – If you’re confident a team will win but not sure about the margin, a moneyline bet eliminates the need for point differentials.
- Upset Potential – Underdogs carry greater risk but offer better payouts. A +200 underdog means a $100 bet returns $200 in profit.
The downside? Moneylines don’t always provide the best value. A -300 favorite means risking $300 to win $100, which can be costly if an upset occurs.
Which Should You Bet?
The decision comes down to risk tolerance, betting style, and the specific matchup. If you’re comfortable assessing margins of victory, spreads offer consistent value. If you prefer a straightforward approach, moneylines keep things simple but require careful bankroll management, especially when backing heavy favorites.
Before placing a bet, analyzing recent team performances is key. Box scores tell part of the story, but watching NBA highlights can reveal crucial details—how a team executes in clutch moments, whether a star player is fully healthy, or if a team’s defensive intensity is slipping. These factors don’t always reflect in the odds, giving sharp bettors an edge when deciding between a spread or moneyline wager.
Consider these factors:
- Blowout Potential: If a team consistently dominates, covering the spread might be easier than relying on an expensive moneyline.
- Underdog Viability: If an underdog can keep it close but isn’t a strong candidate to win outright, spreads are the better option.
- Market Efficiency: Sportsbooks adjust moneylines and spreads based on public betting trends. Spreads often provide better value if a moneyline is inflated due to public betting.
Navigating Risk and Reward
There’s no universal answer to whether spreads or moneylines are better—each has its advantages based on the matchup and your betting strategy. Spreads reward those who can gauge game dynamics and final margins, while moneylines suit those prioritizing outright winners. The key is understanding the risk-reward balance and picking the right approach for each game.
