New Orleans (4-1) at Jacksonville (2-3)
When: Sunday, October 13th, 2019
Where: TIAA Bank Field,
Time: 1:00 ET | TV: CBS
Opening Odds: Jacksonville -1/43.5
The New Orleans Saints seem to be doing just fine without their future Hall of Fame quarterback and look for their fourth win in a row under backup Teddy Bridgewater when they visit the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday afternoon. The Saints sit atop the NFC South with a 4-1 mark after the offense broke-out in a 31-24 win over Tampa Bay last week after the defense carried the team to wins over Dallas and Seattle. New Orleans has done very well recently against AFC opponents, winning eight straight games against them and are also 13-1 straight up in its last 14 October games. Jacksonville is getting by with their backup QB, who could ultimately become the full-time starter with his solid play. Gardner Minshew replaced the injured Nick Foles and is 2-2 in his four starts. The Jaguars saw their two-game winning streak snapped last Sunday in a 34-27 setback at Carolina, but will play three of their next four at home. Jacksonville has struggled both straight up and against the spread against NFC opponents in recent years, going 4-22 ATS in their last 26. The teams last played in Week 16 of the 2015 season with New Orleans winning 38-27 behind a 412-yard day from Brees against Blake Bortles. The Saints have covered each of the last four meetings.
Bridgewater is coming off his best performance in a Saints uniform with 314 yards passing and four touchdowns in last week’s win over the Bucs. Michael Thomas hasn’t slowed down with Brees out, catching 11 Bridgewater passes for 182 yards and two touchdowns last week. Jacksonville hand their hands full with Christian McCaffrey and will get a dose of Alvin Kamara this week, who had 104 yards from scrimmage versus Tampa Bay. Kamara, who tops the team in rushing with 342 yards and is the team’s second-leading receiver, was a limited participant in Thursday’s practice due to an ankle issue. New Orleans’ defense has not allowed a 100-yard rusher in an NFL-high 31 consecutive games and are 19th overall in yards allowed (363.4).
Minshew threw for 374 yards and two touchdowns in last week’s loss to Carolina and has 1,279 yards and nine touchdowns with just one interception this season. The future is starting to look a little brighter in Jacksonville when it comes to their quarterback issues. Running back Leonard Fournette did his part against the Panthers when he ran for 108 yards and a touchdown. The Jaguars were gashed on the ground last week as the Carolina Panthers recorded 285 rushing yards against them and rank 25th at stopping the run. Jacksonville’s defense could get a boost with the possible return of Pro Bowl cornerback Jalen Ramsey, who was limited in Thursday’s practice.
Jacksonville’s defense had a rough time last week against the Panthers rushing attack, but they’re much better than that and will close the gaps here at home. Minshew and Fournette make this offense a lot better than it has been in recent seasons. I’m going with the Jaguars at home as one of my top plays.
Pick: Jaguars -1.5 (More Week 6 Free Picks)
Saints are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games in Week 6.
Saints are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Saints are 23-8 ATS in their last 31 games following a ATS win.
Saints are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 road games.
Saints are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games in October.
Saints are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
Saints are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
Saints are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up win.
Jaguars are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Jaguars are 1-3-2 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Jaguars are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in October.
Over is 3-0-1 in Saints last 4 games in Week 6.
Under is 6-1 in Saints last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.
Under is 5-1 in Saints last 6 games following a ATS win.
Under is 4-1 in Saints last 5 road games.
Under is 4-1 in Saints last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Saints last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 7-2 in Saints last 9 games on grass.
Over is 18-7 in Saints last 25 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 7-3 in Saints last 10 games following a straight up win.
Under is 7-3 in Saints last 10 games in October.
Under is 4-0 in Jaguars last 4 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
Under is 4-0 in Jaguars last 4 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 4-0 in Jaguars last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 6-1 in Jaguars last 7 home games.
Under is 5-1 in Jaguars last 6 games following a straight up loss.
Under is 4-1 in Jaguars last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 6-2 in Jaguars last 8 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
Favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.