New Orleans (9-2) at Atlanta (3-8)
When: Thursday, November 28th, 2019
Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium,
Atlanta, Georgia
Time: 8:20 ET | TV: NBC
Opening Odds: New Orleans -5.5/49
The Lions and Cowboys aren’t the only Thanksgiving games in town. The NFL added a third game to the holiday schedule in 2006, and although it doesn’t include one team playing every year like Detroit and Dallas, it has given us some great matchups. This will be the second consecutive year that the New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons will face each other in this time slot. New Orleans won 31-17 at home in 2018 in only the Saints’ second game on Thanksgiving – they won at Dallas in 2010. The Falcons are 1-2 all-time on the holiday, and the only other time they hosted was in 2007 at the old Georgia Dome, losing 31-13 to the Colts. The Saints can clinch the NFC South with a win on Thursday, but it won’t be easy considering what the Falcons did to them just a few weeks ago. The biggest point spread upset in the NFL this season was in Week 10 in New Orleans when the Saints were 14-point favorites over the Falcons but lost 26-9. Both teams were coming out of their bye week, with Atlanta on a six-game losing streak and New Orleans on a six-game winning streak. It marked the first time in 18 years a team on at least a six-game skid beat one on at least a six-game winning streak. The Saints have bounced back with wins at Tampa Bay 34-17 and at home against Carolina 34-31. Atlanta’s stunning win in Week 10 snapped a three-game skid against the Saints, and the Falcons were able to repeat the performance a week later in a 29-3 rout at Carolina. The Falcons regressed last week in a 35-22 loss to Tampa Bay. The underdog is 9-3 ATS in the past 12 meetings while the under has cashed in four of the previous five.
The Saints escaped Carolina last week as 9.5-point favorites with a Will Lutz 33-yard field goal as time expired. Brees led the Saints from their own 14-yard line with 1:51 left to the Carolina 15 with 3 seconds remaining. He threw for 311 yards and three touchdowns overall and in last year’s Thanksgiving win, recorded four scoring passes and a 111.9 rating. Michael Thomas had 10 catches for 101 yards last week could break the NFL single-season record for receptions (143 by Marvin Harrison) if he keeps this up – he already has 104. The defense is starting to show some holes. After holding five straight opponents to fewer than 260 total yards, the Saints have given up at least 317 in their past three including 351 to the Panthers last week. New Orleans will have 10 days off before hosting the San Francisco 49ers.
After two strong defensive performances, the Falcons allowed 446 yards in the home loss to Tampa Bay and rank 26th overall (376.3) and 28th in points allowed per game (27.0). Matt Ryan didn’t throw a touchdown pass last week, was picked off once and lost a fumble that was returned for a touchdown. It was his lowest-rated game of the season and he has just three TD passes in his past four games. No. 1 running back Devonta Freeman was out with a foot injury and isn’t likely to play in this quick turnaround. Top receiver Julio Jones suffered a shoulder injury but it’s not thought to be serious. Jones had 11 catches for 147 yards against the Saints last Thanksgiving. The Falcons, who are 7-3 ATS in their past 10 Thursday games, will host Carolina next week.
This is a game that New Orleans should dominate and everyone betting this game seems to be on them. The Falcons looked terrible last week, but were showing signs of improvement prior. The Saints aren’t flawless and might be in for a fight on the road here. I’ll take the points.
Pick: Falcons +7 (More Week 13 Free Picks)
Saints are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Saints are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
Saints are 24-8 ATS in their last 32 road games.
Saints are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. NFC.
Saints are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
Saints are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Saints are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Saints are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
Saints are 7-3 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Saints are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Saints are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
Saints are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss.
Falcons are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Falcons are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Falcons are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 Thursday games.
Falcons are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games overall.
Falcons are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Falcons are 6-21 ATS in their last 27 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Falcons are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Falcons are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Falcons are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 13.
Under is 7-0-1 in Saints last 8 Thursday games.
Under is 5-1 in Saints last 6 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 9-2 in Saints last 11 vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 4-1 in Saints last 5 vs. NFC South.
Under is 4-1 in Saints last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Over is 21-7 in Saints last 28 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 5-2 in Saints last 7 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
Under is 6-0 in Falcons last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Under is 4-1 in Falcons last 5 games overall.
Under is 4-1 in Falcons last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home.
Under is 4-1 in Falcons last 5 home games.
Under is 4-1 in Falcons last 5 vs. NFC.
Under is 16-5 in Falcons last 21 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 16-5 in Falcons last 21 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 3-1-1 in Falcons last 5 Thursday games.
Under is 26-10 in Falcons last 36 games in November.
Under is 5-2 in Falcons last 7 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 5-2 in Falcons last 7 games on grass.
Under is 5-2 in Falcons last 7 games following a straight up loss.
Under is 12-5 in Falcons last 17 games in Week 13.
Under is 9-4 in Falcons last 13 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
Underdog is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings.
Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Atlanta.
