New Orleans (6-2) at Buffalo (5-3)
When: Sunday, November 12th 2017
Where: New Era Field, Orchard Park, NY
Time: 1:00 ET | TV: FOX
Opening Odds: New Orleans -2.5/48.5
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The red-hot New Orleans Saints travel to Buffalo seeking their seventh-straight victory on Sunday and take on a Bills team that is coming off an embarrassing road loss. The Saints dropped their first two games to Minnesota and New England before reeling off six straight thanks to a vastly improved defense that ranks 10th in points allowed (19.4), but has allowed 17 or less in four of their past five games. New Orleans is coming off a heated 30-10 victory over the Tampa Bay Bucs as rookie cornerback back Marshon Lattimore was taken out from behind by Mike Evans last week, leading to a one-game suspension for the Tampa wide receiver and confirming the belief of the Saints’ secondary that they are in opponent’s heads. The Bills will try to attack that secondary with a passing game that ranks 30th in the league at an average of just 186.9 yards. Quarterback Tyrod Taylor threw for 285 yards last week at the New York Jets, but most of that came in garbage time as the Jets were up 27 points at one point thanks to three Bills’ turnovers. New Orleans took the last four in the series, including wins in its last two trips to Buffalo.
In the past, it’s been all about an explosive passing game led by Drew Brees, with not much balance in other areas of the team. But now, they not only have an improved defense, but have added a bit of a running game to help take pressure off the aging Brees. Mark Ingram and rookie Alvin Kamara combine for 852 rushing yards and seven TDs and contribute to the passing game as well with a combined 533 receiving yards. The running game is actually ranked seventh in the league, which is unheard of in New Orleans. Second-year wideout Michael Thomas is on pace to match his 90 reception total of last season, but his yards per catch (10.9) is down along with his scoring (2 TDs, 9 in 2016). The Saints will host Washington next Sunday afternoon.
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Buffalo, who is a perfect 4-0 at home this season, added a new weapon to the inept passing game last week, trading for Carolina’s Kelvin Benjamin. The former first round draft pick had 32 catches for 475 yards and two scores for Carolina this season and Buffalo hopes he can put up similar numbers to his rookie season when he caught 73 for 1,008 yards and nine touchdowns. He will make his Bills debut this Sunday against the tough New Orleans secondary. The Bills defense is very good against the run (8th), but can be beaten through the air (26th). Buffalo is hoping to get back corner E.J. Gaines (hamstring) this week, who missed the last three games but returned to practice on a limited basis this week and is questionable. The Bills, who are one game behind New England in the AFC East, will travel to L.A. next week to take on the Chargers.
I do believe the Saints are for real and will eventually win the NFC South, but this is a tough road game for them in the elements as a favorite. This is the perfect situation for the Bills, who have held three of their four opponents to 16 points or less in Orchard Park. Look for Benjamin to make an immediate impact here. Take the points.
Pick: Bills +3
- Saints are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Saints are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
- Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Saints are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 road games.
- Saints are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in November.
- Saints are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games following a ATS win.
- Saints are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Saints are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Saints are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games overall.
- Saints are 39-17-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Saints are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games in Week 10.
- Saints are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games on turf.
- Bills are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 home games.
- Bills are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Bills are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games on turf.
- Bills are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
- Bills are 12-26-2 ATS in their last 40 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Bills are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Bills are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
- Bills are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games in November.
- Over is 5-0 in Saints last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 5-0 in Saints last 5 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 5-1 in Saints last 6 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 5-1 in Saints last 6 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Saints last 5 games overall.
- Under is 4-1 in Saints last 5 games following a straight up win.
- Under is 8-2 in Saints last 10 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
- Under is 4-1 in Saints last 5 games following a ATS win.
- Over is 8-2 in Saints last 10 games in Week 10.
- Over is 4-1 in Saints last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 6-2 in Saints last 8 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 7-3 in Saints last 10 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 27-12 in Saints last 39 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Over is 5-1 in Bills last 6 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 14-3 in Bills last 17 home games.
- Over is 14-3 in Bills last 17 games on turf.
- Over is 4-1 in Bills last 5 games in November.
- Over is 8-2 in Bills last 10 games following a straight up loss.
- Over is 8-2 in Bills last 10 games following a ATS loss.
- Over is 7-2 in Bills last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 10-3 in Bills last 13 games in Week 10.
- Over is 6-2 in Bills last 8 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 14-6 in Bills last 20 games overall.
- Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
- Favorite is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
