Houston (3-2) at Golden State (2-3)
When: Saturday, May 26th 2018
Where: Oracle Arena, Oakland, CA
Time: 9:05 ET | TV: TNT
Opening Odds: Golden State -10.5/212.5
The defending NBA champion Golden State Warriors are in a position they are not used to, and will need a spirited home effort to extend their Western Conference Finals series with the Houston Rockets to seven games. Game 6 is set for Saturday night and will have a very different feel to it, not just the change in venue, but Houston star point guard Chris Paul will not play after leaving with a hamstring injury in the final minute of Thursday’s 98-94 victory. “I hate it for him above all,” Houston coach Mike D’Antoni told reporters. “He’s practically won us the past two games. But it’s a great opportunity for other guys, and we have plenty to choose from. We’ll be ready.” Reserve shooting guard Eric Gordon may play a bigger role in Game 6, and is coming off a terrific performance on Friday, scoring 24 points and getting a steal on Golden State’s last possession to seal the win. The Rockets are seeking their first NBA Finals appearance since 1995 and have two chances to do so. Warriors small forward Andre Iguodala (knee) sat out the last two games and is questionable for Game 6, while Klay Thompson played through a knee strain in Game 5 and scored 23 points on 8-of-14 shooting. Golden State is currently 12-point favorites, the highest spread of the series thus far, and that has everything to do with Paul being out. Houston shocked everyone by winning Game 4 in Oakland as 7.5-point underdogs and it ended Golden State’s 16-game home postseason winning streak. Game 7 would be back in Houston on Monday night if the Warriors even the series on Saturday.
With Paul out on Saturday, the Rockets will need star guard James Harden to break out of his scoring funk. The MVP candidate has missed his last 20 3-point attempts after going 0-of-11 from beyond the arc on Thursday. Harden scored a series-low 19 points on 5-of-21 shooting in Game 5 but is averaging 27.4 points against Golden State. Center Clint Capela recorded his first double-double of the series with 12 points and 14 rebounds on Thursday. Houston only used seven players in Game 5, with six players not seeing any action. That should give D’Antoni plenty of fresh legs to make up for Paul being sidelined.
Star forward Kevin Durant led the Warriors with 29 points in Game 5 but was just 8-of-22 and is averaging 31.2 points on 46.5% shooting in the series after shooting 51.6% during the regular season. After two terrific home games in which guard Steph Curry shot a combined 11-for-25 from beyond the arc in Games 3 and 4, the former MVP regressed to 2-of-8 from 3-point territory and missed a floater late in Game 5 that would have give Golden State the lead. Head coach Steve Kerr sounds pretty optimistic about his team’s chances in the series despite being on the brink of elimination. “I feel great about where we are right now,” he told reporters after Game 5. “That may sound crazy, but I feel it. I know exactly what I’m seeing out there, and we defended them beautifully (Thursday night). We got everything we needed. Just too many turnovers, too many reaches, and if we settle down a little bit, we’re going to be in really good shape.”
These teams are worn out and the offensive efficiency is not there right now. The last three games have gone under the total and neither team has scored over 100 in the last two. Houston hasn’t scored 100 since Game 2. The total for the last two games in Oakland was 226 and it has now been brought down to 212.5 for this contest. With Paul out and Harden struggling to find the ocean, I’m going to say Houston has a hard time reaching 100 again here, so I’ll stick with the under trend in this one.
Pick: Under 212.5
- Rockets are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 1 days rest.
- Rockets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Rockets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
- Rockets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Rockets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
- Rockets are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 vs. NBA Pacific.
- Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Saturday games.
- Warriors are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Saturday games.
- Warriors are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
- Warriors are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games.
- Warriors are 10-24 ATS in their last 34 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
- Warriors are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
- Warriors are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Warriors are 4-17 ATS in their last 21 games playing on 1 days rest.
- Under is 4-0 in Rockets last 4 road games.
- Under is 4-0 in Rockets last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Under is 4-0 in Rockets last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Under is 7-1 in Rockets last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
- Under is 14-2 in Rockets last 16 vs. NBA Pacific.
- Under is 5-1 in Rockets last 6 Conference Finals games.
- Under is 5-1 in Rockets last 6 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
- Under is 6-2 in Rockets last 8 Saturday games.
- Under is 33-12 in Rockets last 45 vs. Western Conference.
- Under is 19-7 in Rockets last 26 games following a straight up win.
- Under is 14-6 in Rockets last 20 games playing on 1 days rest.
- Under is 39-18 in Rockets last 57 overall.
- Under is 21-10 in Rockets last 31 games following a ATS win.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Warriors last 6 games following a straight up loss.
- Under is 7-1 in Warriors last 8 overall.
- Under is 7-1 in Warriors last 8 vs. Western Conference.
- Under is 7-1 in Warriors last 8 vs. NBA Southwest.
- Under is 5-1 in Warriors last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.
- Under is 5-1 in Warriors last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
- Under is 5-1 in Warriors last 6 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
- Under is 4-1 in Warriors last 5 Conference Finals games.
- Under is 4-1 in Warriors last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
- Over is 3-1-1 in Warriors last 5 Saturday games.
- Under is 19-7-1 in Warriors last 27 games following a ATS loss.
- Under is 8-3 in Warriors last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
