Cincinnati (66-91) at Milwaukee (83-74)
When: Wednesday, September 27th 2017
Where: Miller Park, Milwaukee, WI
Time: 8:10 ET | TV: FSN Ohio, FSN Wisconsin
Opening Odds: Milwaukee -170/9.5
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The race for the final National League playoff spot resumes tonight in Milwaukee as the Brewers host the last place Cincinnati Reds in the middle game of their three-game set. Domingo Santana started the Brewers off right in Tuesday’s contest, mashing a three-run homer to spark a four-run first inning in the 7-6 win that left the club 1.5 games behind the Colorado Rockies with five to play. Orlando Arcia recorded three more hits to improve to 21-for-59 against the Reds this season. Milwaukee is only one game ahead of St. Louis and plays its final three on the road against the Cardinals. Cincinnati has dropped seven consecutive games, but Scott Schebler hit his 30th homer of the season on Tuesday – and fifth against the Brewers. The Reds’ Zack Cozart also homered on Tuesday – his 24th to match his career high with 63 RBIs. Joey Votto is 19-for-45 with five homers against Milwaukee this season, while Eric Thames is 19-for-55 with 10 homers and 17 RBIs against the Reds.
Pitchers: Reds – Homer Bailey (5-9, 6.96 ERA) | Brewers – Brandon Woodruff (2-2, 3.76)
Homer Bailey could really use a good outing before the season ends. On Thursday, he lasted only four innings while giving up four runs and seven hits in a loss to St. Louis. He has faced the Brewers twice within the past seven weeks, winning at Milwaukee with five innings of two-run ball on August 11th and settling for a no-decision on September 4th after allowing three runs in six innings. Slugger Ryan Braun is 16-for-44 with four homers off Bailey.
CHICAGO BEARS VS GREEN BAY PACKERS PREDICTION
After a great start to his major league career, Brandon Woodruff has been just the opposite over his last three starts, allowing 13 runs and 20 hits over 17 innings. He had allowed just four earned runs total in his first four major-league starts. Woodruff took the loss against the Chicago Cubs last time out after giving up four runs and five hits in five innings. Woodruff has allowed only one earned run in five road starts, but his ERA is four runs higher at home (4.85).
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Look for some offensive fireworks in this one. Bailey has struggled all season and Woodruff hasn’t had a solid outing in weeks. These teams scored 13 last night – I think they get close to that again tonight.
Pick: Over 9.5 -110
BETTING TRENDS:
- Reds are 18-37 in their last 55 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Reds are 44-96 in their last 140 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Reds are 20-44 in their last 64 road games.
- Reds are 3-7 in their last 10 during game 2 of a series.
- Reds are 2-8 in their last 10 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Reds are 1-5 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Reds are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. National League Central.
- Reds are 0-6 in their last 6 games following a loss.
- Reds are 0-6 in their last 6 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Reds are 0-6 in their last 6 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Reds are 0-7 in their last 7 overall.
- Reds are 0-5 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Reds are 0-6 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Reds are 0-7 in their last 7 games on grass.
- Reds are 7-15 in Bailey’s last 22 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Reds are 3-7 in Bailey’s last 10 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Reds are 2-5 in Bailey’s last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Reds are 2-5 in Bailey’s last 7 starts.
- Reds are 2-5 in Bailey’s last 7 starts on grass.
- Reds are 5-13 in Bailey’s last 18 starts vs. National League Central.
- Reds are 2-7 in Bailey’s last 9 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Reds are 1-5 in Bailey’s last 6 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Reds are 1-11 in Bailey’s last 12 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Brewers are 9-2 in their last 11 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Brewers are 4-1 in their last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Brewers are 4-1 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Brewers are 4-1 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
- Brewers are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Brewers are 10-3 in their last 13 during game 2 of a series.
- Brewers are 18-6 in their last 24 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Brewers are 11-4 in their last 15 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Brewers are 5-2 in their last 7 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Brewers are 3-7 in their last 10 Wednesday games.
- Brewers are 6-18 in their last 24 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Brewers are 0-4 in Woodruff’s last 4 home starts.
- Over is 4-0 in Reds last 4 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 4-1 in Reds last 5 during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 8-3 in Reds last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 10-4-1 in Reds last 15 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 9-4 in Reds last 13 games following a loss.
- Over is 6-1 in Bailey’s last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 5-1 in Bailey’s last 6 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 4-1 in Bailey’s last 5 starts on grass.
- Over is 4-1 in Bailey’s last 5 road starts.
- Under is 4-1 in Bailey’s last 5 starts overall.
- Over is 8-2 in Bailey’s last 10 starts vs. National League Central.
- Under is 6-2 in Bailey’s last 8 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 5-2 in Bailey’s last 7 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 9-4 in Bailey’s last 13 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 17-8 in Bailey’s last 25 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 5-1 in Brewers last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
- Under is 5-1 in Brewers last 6 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 9-2-1 in Brewers last 12 home games.
- Under is 4-1 in Brewers last 5 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 7-2 in Brewers last 9 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 38-12-2 in Brewers last 52 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 6-2 in Brewers last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 6-2 in Brewers last 8 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 8-3-1 in Brewers last 12 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 44-18-3 in Brewers last 65 overall.
- Under is 21-9-2 in Brewers last 32 games following a win.
- Under is 41-18-3 in Brewers last 62 on grass.
- Under is 9-4 in Brewers last 13 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Woodruff’s last 4 home starts.
- Under is 6-1 in Woodruff’s last 7 starts overall.
- Under is 5-1 in Woodruff’s last 6 starts on grass.
- Under is 4-1 in Woodruff’s last 5 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 16-4-1 in the last 21 meetings in Milwaukee.
- Over is 5-2 in Bailey’s last 7 road starts vs. Brewers.
- Reds are 5-2 in Bailey’s last 7 road starts vs. Brewers.
- Over is 33-16-2 in the last 51 meetings.
- Reds are 1-6 in the last 7 meetings in Milwaukee.
