Red Sox vs Yankees Preview & Free Pick | Prediction [7/1/18]

Boston (56-28) at NY Yankees (53-27)
When: Sunday, July 1st 2018
Where: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
Time: 8:05 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: New York -205/8 

The best series of the weekend will be the finale on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball as the Boston Red Sox battle the New York Yankees in the rubber match of their three-game set. The Yankees bombed four home runs in taking Friday’s opener 8-1, but Boston returned the favor on Saturday with an 11-0 thrashing behind Rafael Devers. The 21-year-old third baseman become the youngest player to hit a grand slam in the history of the rivalry when he took Sonny Gray deep in the first inning on Saturday to start the route. Boston heads into Sunday’s finale with a one-game lead in the AL East and the season series knotted at four wins apiece. The Yankees, who lost for just the 12th time at home, will continue their homestand with a three-game interleague series against the NL East-leading Atlanta Braves beginning on Monday before heading into the All-Star break on an 11-game road trip. Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts on Saturday, while Boston’s J.D. Martinez has recorded multiple hits in six of his last nine games. The pitching matchup for Sunday should be terrific, with lefty David Price going for Boston opposite New York ace Luis Severino.

Pitchers: Red Sox – David Price (9-5, 3.66 ERA) | Yankees – Luis Severino (12-2, 2.10)

Price’s overall numbers are pretty decent, but let’s look at what he’s done in his last nine starts. Price is 7-1 with a 2.72 ERA during that stretch with 57 strikeouts in 56.1 innings. He struck out seven over six innings against the Los Angeles Angels on Tuesday, allowing one run and five hits to pick up his ninth victory. Price allowed four runs in just one inning against New York before leaving with numbness in his throwing hand on April 11th.

Severino is having a Cy Young-type season and has allowed three runs or fewer in each of his last 14 starts. He dominated the Philadelphia Phillies on Tuesday, striking out nine in seven scoreless innings. Severino leads the AL in wins and ERA and is up to 132 strikeouts in 111.2 innings. He recorded 11 strikeouts while allowing two runs over six innings at home against Boston on May 8th but did not factor in the decision.

This is a prime-time, playoff-type pitching matchup here. Severino is one of the best in the game right now, while Price is still regarded as one of the best lefties around. These teams have shown off their offenses this weekend, but both teams have also shown they can buckle against great pitching. I say this is a low-scoring affair, with the Yankees edging the Red Sox, but my official play is the under.

Pick: UNDER 8 +105

BETTING TRENDS:

• Red Sox are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
• Red Sox are 5-1 in their last 6 games on grass.
• Red Sox are 4-1 in their last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Red Sox are 11-3 in their last 14 Sunday games.
• Red Sox are 25-9 in their last 34 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Red Sox are 39-15 in their last 54 vs. American League East.
• Red Sox are 39-15 in their last 54 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
• Red Sox are 44-17 in their last 61 games vs. a right-handed starter.
• Red Sox are 5-2 in their last 7 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Red Sox are 56-27 in their last 83 overall.
• Red Sox are 37-18 in their last 55 games following a win.
• Red Sox are 47-23 in their last 70 during game 3 of a series.
• Red Sox are 4-0 in Price’s last 4 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Red Sox are 4-0 in Price’s last 4 starts vs. American League East.
• Red Sox are 7-0 in Price’s last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
• Red Sox are 5-0 in Price’s last 5 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Red Sox are 4-0 in Price’s last 4 starts with 4 days of rest.
• Red Sox are 5-0 in Price’s last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
• Red Sox are 8-1 in Price’s last 9 starts.
• Red Sox are 6-1 in Price’s last 7 starts on grass.
• Red Sox are 4-1 in Price’s last 5 road starts.
• Red Sox are 12-4 in Price’s last 16 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Red Sox are 20-8 in Price’s last 28 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
• Red Sox are 2-5 in Price’s last 7 Sunday starts.

• Yankees are 6-0 in their last 6 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Yankees are 20-6 in their last 26 games vs. a left-handed starter.
• Yankees are 49-15 in their last 64 home games.
• Yankees are 16-5 in their last 21 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
• Yankees are 42-15 in their last 57 games on grass.
• Yankees are 21-8 in their last 29 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
• Yankees are 5-2 in their last 7 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Yankees are 37-15 in their last 52 games following a loss.
• Yankees are 44-18 in their last 62 overall.
• Yankees are 39-16 in their last 55 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Yankees are 55-23 in their last 78 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
• Yankees are 11-5 in their last 16 during game 3 of a series.
• Yankees are 35-16 in their last 51 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Yankees are 1-5 in their last 6 vs. American League East.
• Yankees are 8-1 in Severino’s last 9 starts vs. American League East.
• Yankees are 14-2 in Severino’s last 16 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
• Yankees are 7-1 in Severino’s last 8 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Yankees are 6-1 in Severino’s last 7 starts during game 3 of a series.
• Yankees are 12-2 in Severino’s last 14 starts with 4 days of rest.
• Yankees are 12-2 in Severino’s last 14 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Yankees are 23-5 in Severino’s last 28 home starts.
• Yankees are 13-3 in Severino’s last 16 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Yankees are 4-1 in Severino’s last 5 Sunday starts.
• Yankees are 22-6 in Severino’s last 28 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
• Yankees are 20-6 in Severino’s last 26 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
• Yankees are 16-5 in Severino’s last 21 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Yankees are 37-14 in Severino’s last 51 starts.
• Yankees are 37-14 in Severino’s last 51 starts on grass.

• Under is 9-1 in Red Sox last 10 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Over is 5-1-1 in Red Sox last 7 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Over is 4-1 in Red Sox last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
• Over is 4-1-1 in Red Sox last 6 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Over is 11-3 in Red Sox last 14 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
• Under is 21-6 in Red Sox last 27 Sunday games.
• Under is 3-1-1 in Red Sox last 5 games following a win.
• Under is 8-3-1 in Red Sox last 12 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Under is 34-15-2 in Red Sox last 51 during game 3 of a series.
• Under is 3-0-1 in Price’s last 4 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
• Under is 3-0-1 in Price’s last 4 starts on grass.
• Under is 3-0-1 in Price’s last 4 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Under is 3-0-1 in Price’s last 4 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Under is 3-0-1 in Price’s last 4 starts overall.
• Under is 4-1 in Price’s last 5 road starts.
• Under is 7-3 in Price’s last 10 Sunday starts.
• Over is 7-3 in Price’s last 10 starts during game 3 of a series.

• Under is 4-0-1 in Yankees last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Under is 9-1-1 in Yankees last 11 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
• Under is 7-1 in Yankees last 8 games following a loss.
• Under is 6-1-1 in Yankees last 8 games vs. a left-handed starter.
• Under is 6-1 in Yankees last 7 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Under is 5-1 in Yankees last 6 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Under is 5-1-1 in Yankees last 7 during game 3 of a series.
• Under is 9-2-1 in Yankees last 12 home games.
• Under is 9-2 in Yankees last 11 vs. American League East.
• Under is 22-5-1 in Yankees last 28 overall.
• Under is 20-5-1 in Yankees last 26 on grass.
• Under is 3-1-1 in Yankees last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Under is 4-0 in Severino’s last 4 starts on grass.
• Under is 5-0-1 in Severino’s last 6 starts during game 3 of a series.
• Under is 4-0-1 in Severino’s last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
• Under is 4-0 in Severino’s last 4 starts overall.
• Under is 7-0-1 in Severino’s last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
• Under is 6-0-1 in Severino’s last 7 home starts.
• Under is 7-1-1 in Severino’s last 9 starts with 4 days of rest.
• Under is 8-2-1 in Severino’s last 11 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
• Over is 4-1 in Severino’s last 5 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Under is 4-1 in Severino’s last 5 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Under is 4-1-1 in Severino’s last 6 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Under is 5-2 in Severino’s last 7 starts vs. American League East.

• Over is 4-1 in Price’s last 5 starts vs. Yankees.
• Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in New York.
• Red Sox are 2-5 in the last 7 meetings in New York.
• Red Sox are 2-5 in Price’s last 7 starts vs. Yankees.
• Red Sox are 0-4 in Price’s last 4 road starts vs. Yankees.

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