Baltimore (6-2) at New England (3-5)
When: Sunday, November 15th, 2020
Where: Gillette Stadium,
Foxborough, MA
Time: 8:20 ET | TV: NBC
Opening Odds: Baltimore -7/41
The New England Patriots finally ended their losing skid, but still have a long way to go if they want to enter the postseason discussion. Bill Belichik’s crew has a monumental task waiting for them at Gillette Stadium Sunday night, as the Pats host the Baltimore Ravens in Week 10 action. New England seeks to build off the momentum of Monday’s 30-27 win over the New York Jets that snapped a four-game losing streak. Quarterback Cam Newton was 27-of-35 for 274 yards and two rushing touchdowns. It was his best all-around game since a Week 2 loss in Seattle. However, he hasn’t thrown a TD pass in four games in a row. Baltimore comes into Sunday’s contest having won 10 straight road games including a 24-10 at the Indianapolis Colts last week. Lamar Jackson rushed for a touchdown for the third time in five games in the win and was great in beating New England last season. The reigning NFL MVP accounted for three scores (two rushing, one passing) as Baltimore handed New England its first defeat of the season, a 37-20 decision on Nov. 3.
Baltimore comes into this game as 7-point favorites with a total of 44. This is one of the biggest public plays of the week, with over 70% of the action on the Ravens. Baltimore is 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games in New England, while the under is 6-1 in their last seven games against AFC opponents. The Patriots are 3-5 ATS for the season and the Over is 4-0 in their last four games as a home underdog. The over is 4-0 in the last four meetings between these teams and the road team is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine games.
Baltimore has one of the best rushing offences in the league thanks to Jackson, averaging 5.1 yards per carry (3rd in the NFL) and a league-best 170.1 yards per game. The Ravens could see the return of Pro Bowl running back Mark Ingram II, who was listed as limited in practice on Wednesday after missing the last two games with an ankle injury. Ingram, who joins Jackson, Gus Edwards and rookie J.K. Dobbins in the backfield, rumbled for 144 scrimmage yards (115 rushing, 29 receiving) against the Patriots last season. After the Ravens ranked first in scoring last season by averaging 33.2 points, their scoring in 2020 has slipped to 28.4 (8th). The Ravens defense is tied for 6th in the league with 24 sacks, while their 43.4 percent blitz rate is the highest in the NFL. They are also holding other teams to an average of 6.4 passing yards per attempt, 2nd best in league. Baltimore defensive end Calais Campbell (calf), linebacker Matthew Judon (calf), and cornerback Jimmy Smith (ankle) did not practice on Wednesday, while linebacker L.J. Fort (finger) was listed as limited.
The Patriots spread the ball around against the Jets, with Damien Harris rushing 14 times for 71 yards and Rex Burkhead rushing 12 times for 56 yards and a TD. Wide receiver Jakobi Meyers was Newton’s favorite target on Monday with career highs in both catches (12) and receiving yards (169). New England’s pass defense was poor last week, giving up three passing TDs to Joe Flacco. The rush defense gives up an average of 140.4 yards per games (28th) and 4.6 yards per carry. The pass defense ranks 9th in the league, giving up 221.9 yards per contest, while J.C. Jackson leads the league with five interceptions. Wideout N’Keal Harry (concussion) was one of 18 players listed as a limited participant in Wednesday’s practice. Some of the names on the list included Harris (ankle, chest), linebacker Ja’Whaun Bentley (groin), defensive end Deatrich Wise Jr. (knee, hand), defensive lineman Lawrence Guy (shoulder, elbow, knee), and kicker Nick Folk (back). The Patriots will be at Houston next Sunday.
I still believe this Patriots defense is good enough to keep them in most games and Newton can go off at any time. The whole world is on Baltimore in this game, but remember this: New England has been a home dog just three times in the last 15 years, and they won all three. I’ll take the points.
Pick: Patriots +7
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