Texas (16-24) at Houston (24-16)
When: Saturday, May 12th 2018
Where: Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX
Time: 7:10 ET | TV: FS Southwest, AT&T SportsNet Southwest
Opening Odds: Houston -240/8.5
The Houston Astros might be the kings of Texas when it comes to Baseball, but the Texas Rangers are letting them know they won’t lay down for their in-state rivals. The Rangers won their third-straight game at Minute Maid Park when Cole Hamels and three relievers combined on a one-hit shutout in the opener of their three-game weekend series. The Astros won the season series 12-7 en route to a World Series title in 2017, and took three of four in Arlington earlier this season, but Texas has tied up the 2018 season series at four apiece. Houston was unable to get the offense going in the 1-0 series-opening loss after dominating Oakland 24-4 during a three-game road sweep earlier in the week. The Astros have lost four straight at home for the first time since 2016 and been shut out in three of those. Rangers 2B Rougned Odor went 0-for-3 with two strikeouts in his first game back from the disabled list Friday, while third baseman Adrian Beltre was also hitless in three at-bats, snapping a six-game hitting streak and three-game streak with multiple RBIs.
Pitchers: Rangers – Doug Fister (1-3, 4.02 ERA) | Astros – Charlie Morton (4-0, 2.16)
Doug Fister took the loss in his last outing against Boston on Sunday, allowing six runs on nine hits and two walks. Fister has been solid in his two road starts in 2018, posting a 1.74 ERA but hasn’t won since he allowed one run in five innings while beating Houston in his season debut on March 30th. He is 2-1 with a 3.09 ERA in four starts versus the Astros.
Charlie Morton had trouble finding the strike zone last Saturday (43 of 82 pitches for strikes) at Arizona but managed to escape with a no-decision after limiting the damage to three runs on three hits and four walks in five innings. Morton is 1-0 with a 4.32 ERA over his last three outings after going 3-0 with a 0.72 ERA through his first four starts. Morton received a no-decision on April 14th against Texas despite striking out a career-high tying 12 over six innings.
Neither pitcher is at their best right now, and I don’t see Houston’s offense staying down much longer and Fister could be the perfect medicine for them. Even though it was a 1-0 game last night, I’m taking the over.
Pick: OVER 8.5 +105
BETTING TRENDS:
- Rangers are 10-21 in their last 31 vs. American League West.
- Rangers are 5-16 in their last 21 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Rangers are 1-4 in their last 5 games following a win.
- Rangers are 1-6 in their last 7 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Rangers are 1-7 in their last 8 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Astros are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. American League West.
- Astros are 16-6 in their last 22 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Astros are 13-5 in their last 18 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Astros are 37-15 in their last 52 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Astros are 40-18 in their last 58 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Astros are 13-6 in their last 19 during game 2 of a series.
- Astros are 13-6 in their last 19 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Astros are 61-30 in their last 91 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Astros are 3-7 in their last 10 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Astros are 2-5 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Astros are 0-4 in their last 4 home games.
- Astros are 4-1 in Morton’s last 5 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Astros are 7-3 in Morton’s last 10 home starts.
- Astros are 2-5 in Morton’s last 7 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Astros are 1-4 in Morton’s last 5 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Rangers last 4 Saturday games.
- Over is 5-1-1 in Rangers last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 5-1-1 in Rangers last 7 road games.
- Over is 4-1 in Rangers last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 4-1 in Rangers last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 7-2 in Rangers last 9 during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 9-3-2 in Rangers last 14 overall.
- Over is 6-2 in Rangers last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 5-2-1 in Rangers last 8 games following a win.
- Over is 7-3-1 in Rangers last 11 on grass.
- Over is 7-3-1 in Rangers last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-0 in Astros last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Under is 5-0 in Astros last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Astros last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 6-1 in Astros last 7 overall.
- Under is 6-1 in Astros last 7 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 6-1 in Astros last 7 on grass.
- Under is 4-1 in Astros last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Under is 4-1 in Astros last 5 home games.
- Under is 17-6-1 in Astros last 24 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 18-7-1 in Astros last 26 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 7-3-1 in Astros last 11 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-1 in Morton’s last 5 Saturday starts.
- Under is 7-2 in Morton’s last 9 home starts.
- Under is 10-4 in Morton’s last 14 starts on grass.
- Under is 5-2-1 in Morton’s last 8 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 10-4 in Morton’s last 14 starts overall.
- Over is 5-2 in Morton’s last 7 starts vs. American League West.
- Under is 7-3 in Morton’s last 10 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 7-3 in Morton’s last 10 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings in Houston.
- Rangers are 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in Houston.
