NFL Betting: The QB Carousel

By Richard Gardner, Bodog Sportbook Manager

The 2011 NFL free agency period has seen a lot of intriguing movement at the quarterback position. A number of veterans changed teams over the last week and now that the dust has settled, Bodog’s online sportsbook has released a variety of NFL player props to correspond with the movement. Let’s take a look at three in particular:

Kevin Kolb – Total TD Passes in the 2011 Regular Season 
Line = 17.5 (Over/Under -115)

The Arizona Cardinals paid a hefty sum to acquire the 26-year-old Kolb. Going to Philadelphia were former Pro Bowl CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and a second-round pick in 2012 – like we said, a steep price to pay. And it’s specially steep for Kolb, who has shown flashes of greatness during his brief career, but never over a sustained period of time. His overall numbers are mediocre at best and most of his value is based on a couple of regular-season performances – lighting up the Chiefs in 2009 and an incredibly good effort against Atlanta last year. That said, Kolb is going to Arizona and linking up with Larry Fitzgerald, who might be the best receiver in football. The Cardinals also got Kolb a tight end to throw to (Todd Heap), which is key given how reliant Kolb was on Brent Celek in Philly. On paper, this looks to be an offense that should be in the 20-25 passing TD range, easily…but what’s on paper doesn’t always translate to on-field success.

Matt Hasselbeck – Total Interceptions in the 2011 Regular Season 
Line = 15.5 (Over/Under -115)

The Tennessee Titans underwent a major face change at the QB position this year. Gone are Kerry Collins and Vince Young; in step Matt Hasselbeck and Jake Locker. It’s presumed that Hasselbeck will be the starter for at least this season as he tutors Locker on how to be an NFL QB – so the question is, how good a teacher will he be? The latter part of Hasselbeck’s time in Seattle was filled with interceptions – 17 per season, 34 over his final two years – although he did go out on a high note with two excellent postseason efforts against the Saints and Bears. With new coach Mike Munchak at the helm – a former offensive lineman by trade – it’s likely the Titans will be a run-heavy unit that prefers the ground to the air. Throw in the fact Hasselbeck is known as a quality “game manager” and this has all the makings of a low-risk, minimizing-turnovers-type team.

Donovan McNabb – Total TD Passes in the 2011 Regular Season 
Line = 12.5 (Over/Under -115)

Much like how Hasselbeck will mentor Locker in Tennessee, so too will McNabb mentor Christian Ponder in Minnesota. But for McNabb, this is much more than an opportunity to teach – it’s a chance to resurrect his career after a disastrous stint with the Washington Redskins. On offense, McNabb has positive and negatives to deal with in Minnesota – the positives are working with Adrian Peterson and Percy Harvin, two of the best and most exciting young playmakers in football. The negatives are an underwhelming group of WRs (led by Bernard Berrian) and a banged-up offensive line that could be without Pro Bowl tackle Bryant McKinnie. Thirteen TD passes might be asking a lot from an offense that had just 14 all of last season, especially with a brand-new QB unfamiliar with the personnel.

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