Philadelphia (79-74) at Cleveland (91-64)
When: Sunday, September 22, 2019
Where: Progressive Field,
Cleveland, Ohio
Time: 6:37 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Cleveland -159/10
It’s going to be a big night Sunday in Cleveland. Not only are the Browns hosting the Rams, but the Indians will be playing their home finale on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball against the Philadelphia Phillies. Cleveland is chasing down one of the two American League wild card spots and will begin the day one game behind Tampa Bay for the second spot and three behind front-running Oakland after dropping the middle-game of an interleague series with the Phillies on Saturday. The Indians’ rise up the standings was due in large part to terrific starting pitching, but did not get a good outing Saturday from Zach Plesac in the 9-4 setback, snapping Cleveland’s five game winning streak. Rookie center fielder Oscar Mercado blasted a two-run homer in the second inning for the Indians on Saturday and is 24-for-66 with 13 runs, 13 RBI and three home runs in his last 16 games. The Phillies, who are trying to stay in the National League wild card race, got a three-run homer among four RBI from slugger Bryce Harper, while former Indians Brad Miller (two) and Jay Bruce (one) also went deep in the victory as Philadelphia remained five games behind Milwaukee. Cleveland built a 4-1 lead after two innings but managed just one hit the rest of the way against Phillies’ starter Jason Vargas and three relievers.
Pitchers: Phillies – Vince Velasquez (7-7, 4.89 ERA) | Indians – Adam Plutko (7-4, 4.34)
Velasquez is 3-0 in his last six starts, allowing three runs or less in four of those outings including two against Atlanta last time out, while striking out eight over five innings. He has yet to complete six innings in any of his last seven starts and will be pitching his fourth road contest in a row, where he is 5-5 with a 5.27 ERA overall. Velasquez is 1-1 with a 1.46 ERA in two career outings against the Tribe.
Plutko picked up the win at home last time out after seven straight road starts, when he allowed two runs over six innings of a 7-2 victory against the Detroit Tigers. He has allowed two runs or fewer in five of his last six starts and is 3-1 with a 3.76 ERA over seven starts since August 15th. Plutko, who is 1-0 with a 2.81 ERA in three interleague games (two starts), will face the Phillies for the first time.
All signs point to this being a low scoring affair despite yesterday’s 13 runs. Velasquez and Plutko have been pitching well and the under is a combined 24-15 between the two. Six of Plutko’s eight home starts have gone under and the Phillies tend to follow an offensive explosion with a dud the next day.
Check out who Bobby Babowski has on his Free MLB Picks page for Sunday. He is 131-91 +2663 units on the season after a 32-18 run!
Pick: UNDER 10.5 -115
BETTING TRENDS:
Phillies are 7-1 in their last 8 interleague road games.
Phillies are 5-1 in their last 6 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Phillies are 4-1 in their last 5 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Phillies are 5-2 in their last 7 road games.
Phillies are 5-2 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Phillies are 5-2 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Phillies are 2-5 in their last 7 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Phillies are 2-5 in their last 7 Sunday games.
Phillies are 1-4 in their last 5 games following a win.
Phillies are 4-0 in Velasquez’s last 4 starts.
Phillies are 4-0 in Velasquez’s last 4 starts on grass.
Phillies are 5-1 in Velasquez’s last 6 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Phillies are 4-1 in Velasquez’s last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.
Phillies are 6-2 in Velasquez’s last 8 road starts.
Phillies are 5-2 in Velasquez’s last 7 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Indians are 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Indians are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Indians are 11-2 in their last 13 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Indians are 5-1 in their last 6 overall.
Indians are 5-1 in their last 6 home games.
Indians are 11-3 in their last 14 Sunday games.
Indians are 39-14 in their last 53 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Indians are 19-7 in their last 26 during game 3 of a series.
Indians are 25-10 in their last 35 games following a loss.
Indians are 90-42 in their last 132 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Indians are 45-22 in their last 67 games on grass.
Indians are 2-5 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Indians are 4-10 in their last 14 vs. a team with a winning record.
Indians are 1-4 in their last 5 interleague games.
Indians are 1-4 in their last 5 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.
Indians are 1-5 in their last 6 vs. National League East.
Indians are 4-0 in Plutko’s last 4 starts on grass.
Indians are 5-1 in Plutko’s last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Indians are 5-1 in Plutko’s last 6 home starts.
Indians are 4-1 in Plutko’s last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Indians are 4-1 in Plutko’s last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.
Indians are 4-1 in Plutko’s last 5 starts.
Indians are 6-2 in Plutko’s last 8 starts during game 3 of a series.
Under is 3-0-1 in Phillies last 4 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 3-0-1 in Phillies last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 6-1 in Phillies last 7 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 6-1-1 in Phillies last 8 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 4-1 in Phillies last 5 Sunday games.
Under is 8-2 in Phillies last 10 vs. American League Central.
Under is 16-5-2 in Phillies last 23 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 3-1-1 in Phillies last 5 games following a win.
Under is 22-8-3 in Phillies last 33 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 5-2 in Phillies last 7 on grass.
Under is 5-2 in Phillies last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 5-2 in Phillies last 7 overall.
Under is 15-6-5 in Phillies last 26 interleague road games.
Under is 34-14-6 in Phillies last 54 interleague games.
Under is 11-5 in Phillies last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Over is 4-1 in Velasquez’s last 5 Sunday starts.
Over is 5-2 in Velasquez’s last 7 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 4-0 in Indians last 4 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 6-1 in Indians last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 5-1 in Indians last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Under is 5-1 in Indians last 6 interleague home games.
Under is 12-3 in Indians last 15 on grass.
Over is 4-1-1 in Indians last 6 Sunday games.
Under is 4-1 in Indians last 5 home games.
Under is 4-1 in Indians last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Under is 12-3 in Indians last 15 overall.
Under is 4-1-1 in Indians last 6 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 4-1 in Indians last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Indians last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 7-2 in Indians last 9 games following a loss.
Under is 6-2 in Indians last 8 interleague home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 10-4 in Indians last 14 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 45-20-1 in Indians last 66 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 10-2 in Plutko’s last 12 home starts.
Under is 8-2 in Plutko’s last 10 starts on grass.
Under is 8-3 in Plutko’s last 11 starts overall.
Under is 8-3 in Plutko’s last 11 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 5-2 in Plutko’s last 7 starts with 4 days of rest.
Under is 7-3 in Plutko’s last 10 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Under is 9-4 in Plutko’s last 13 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Phillies are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
Over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Cleveland.
Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings.
Phillies are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings in Cleveland.
