New England (10-3) at Pittsburgh (11-2)
When: Sunday, December 17th 2017
Where: Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA
Time: 4:25 ET | TV: CBS
Opening Odds: New England -1/53.5
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In what will have a feel of an AFC Championship Game, the New England Patriots will travel to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers with the winner claiming the No. 1 seed and homefield in the conference postseason. The Steelers have a one-game lead in the AFC thanks to the Patriots upset loss at Miami on Monday night, which snapped an eight-game winning streak. The Steelers ride their own eight-game winning streak into Sunday’s contest, but have won their last three games by a combined seven points. Pittsburgh is coming off a 39-38 win over rival Baltimore last week to clinch the AFC North with three weeks to go. Now they can focus on claiming the top overall seed in the conference. Bill Belichick and the Patriots have won four in a row against Pittsburgh, including a 36-17 victory in last season’s AFC Championship Game. Tom Brady has 22 touchdown passes and zero interceptions (playoffs included) in the past seven versus Pittsburgh.
The Patriots really missed star tight end Rob Gronkowski last week, who was serving a one-game suspension. New England was 0-for-11 on third down and Tom Brady threw multiple interceptions for the first time this season while completing only 55.8% of his passes in the 27-20 loss at Miami. Brady will have Gronk back this week and will also have the services of recently acquired wideout Kenny Britt, who was released by Cleveland earlier this week. The ground game had rushed for at least 191 yards in its previous two games but was held in check by the Dolphins, with Dion Lewis and Rex Burkhead managing a combined 25 yards on 10 carries. New England had not allowed more than 17 points during its eight-game winning streak, but saw Miami hold the ball for over 36 minutes. The Patriots own the 29th-ranked overall defense (374.6) and 29th against the pass as well (253.9).
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Ben Roethlisberger keeps racking up the big numbers and last week became the first quarterback in league history with three 500-yard games after rallying Pittsburgh from a double-digit fourth-quarter deficit for the second straight week in the win over Baltimore. Big Ben threw the ball 66 times last week without throwing an interception. A knee injury limited star running back Le’Veon Bell to six carries in the AFC title game last season, but he has run for an NFL-best 1,105 yards and also has 75 receptions including 35 over the past four games. Antonio Brown, who has scored six times in the past four games, is coming off a big game against the Ravens with 11 catches for 213 yards to boost his league-leading totals to 99 receptions for 1,509 yards. Pittsburgh, which lost linebacker and leading tackler Ryan Shazier to a serious spinal injury on Monday Night Football at Cincinnati two weeks ago, allowed 413 yards to a Baltimore offense that ranks near the bottom of the league.
I fully expect a shootout here between Brady and Roethlisberger with the top seed on the line. Both defenses have their flaws, but New England will get scorched by Big Ben in this one. Look for a close game with Pittsburgh’s automatic kicker Chris Boswell making the difference.
Pick: Steelers +3
- Patriots are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games on grass.
- Patriots are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Patriots are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in December.
- Patriots are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC.
- Patriots are 9-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Patriots are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games.
- Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Patriots are 24-7 ATS in their last 31 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
- Patriots are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.
- Patriots are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Patriots are 42-18-1 ATS in their last 61 games following a straight up loss.
- Patriots are 34-16-2 ATS in their last 52 games overall.
- Patriots are 35-17-2 ATS in their last 54 games following a ATS loss.
- Steelers are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Steelers are 19-6-2 ATS in their last 27 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Steelers are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Steelers are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss.
- Steelers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Steelers are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games in December.
- Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
- Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
- Steelers are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Steelers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Patriots last 4 games in December.
- Under is 4-0 in Patriots last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 7-1 in Patriots last 8 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.
- Under is 11-2 in Patriots last 13 games on grass.
- Under is 5-1 in Patriots last 6 road games.
- Under is 7-2 in Patriots last 9 games overall.
- Under is 5-2 in Patriots last 7 vs. AFC.
- Over is 5-2 in Patriots last 7 games in Week 15.
- Over is 4-0 in Steelers last 4 games overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Steelers last 4 games following a straight up win.
- Over is 4-0 in Steelers last 4 home games.
- Over is 4-0 in Steelers last 4 games on grass.
- Under is 5-0 in Steelers last 5 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 6-1 in Steelers last 7 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Steelers last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Steelers last 5 games in December.
- Over is 4-1 in Steelers last 5 vs. AFC.
- Under is 7-2 in Steelers last 9 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 13-4-1 in Steelers last 18 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Pittsburgh.
- Patriots are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 meetings.
- Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Pittsburgh.
- Over is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings.
