New England (8-0) at Baltimore (5-2)
When: Sunday, November 3rd, 2019
Where: M&T Bank Stadium,
Baltimore, MD
Time: 8:20 ET | TV: NBC
Opening Odds: New England -4.5/46.5
Statistically, the New England Patriots are in the middle of one of the best seasons in NFL history, but they have been the benefit of a pretty soft schedule thus far. Things will get a lot tougher the rest of the way starting Sunday night in Maryland, as Bill Belichick’s crew take on the 5-2 Baltimore Ravens in Week 9 action. Just one team that New England has beaten currently has a winning record and that’s Buffalo, which was exposed Sunday in a big loss to the Eagles. The Pats have been able to beat up on some of the league’s worst like the Jets twice, Redskins and winless Dolphins. The Patriots will close against the Bengals, Bills, and Dolphins, but inbetween have to play Baltimore, Philadelphia, Dallas, Houston, and Kansas City. The Westgate Superbook reported this week that they will lose six-figures if the Patriots go 16-0, and I just don’t see that happening. The Patriots already have squared off against four quarterbacks drafted in the first round in 2018 and will face a fifth member from that class in Lamar Jackson on Sunday night. New England has won 21 straight against first- or second-year QBs but that mark could be in peril against Jackson, the only signal-caller to ever pass for at least 1,500 yards and rush for 500 in the first seven games of a season. The Ravens seem to always play the Patriots tough even though Baltimore is just 1-8 all-time in the regular season and 3-10 including playoffs. The teams haven’t met since Week 14 of the 2016 season and New England won 30-23 on a Monday night. The Ravens have won three straight and are coming off their bye week after beating Seattle 30-16 on Oct. 20. The road team is 6-1-1 ATS in the past eight meetings and the over is 4-1 in the previous five.
New England remains the clear favorite to win another Super Bowl thanks to a defense that is ranked first overall (234 yards a game) and tops in points allowed at just 7.6. They forced three more turnovers in Sunday’s 27-13 win over Cleveland and scored another touchdown, this time courtesy of a Dont’a Hightower 26-yard fumble return. The Patriots have a turnover differential of plus-17, tied for the fifth-highest turnover margin by a team through its first eight games since 1970 and their plus-189 point differential is tied for the third-highest through a team’s first eight games in history. Belichick on Sunday became the third NFL head coach ever with 300 victories including playoffs. New England leads the league with 19 interceptions and 31 sacks, including five last week, but allowed the Browns to rush for 159 yards. Tom Brady ended his interception streak at four games last week, throwing for 259 yards with two touchdowns – both to Julian Edelman. Running back Sony Michel has at least 16 rushing attempts over the past five games but he is averaging only 3.3 yards per carry.
Baltimore has the advantage of coming in to this contest off a bye week and are taking control of the AFC North, leading by 2.5 games over the Pittsburgh Steelers. Jackson threw for 324 yards and five touchdowns in a Week 1 blowout of Miami and hasn’t been that good of a passer since, but he also has three 100-yard rushing games – including the past two. The bye week came at a good time as rookie receiver Marquise Brown (ankle), linebacker Patrick Onwuasor (ankle) and cornerback Jimmy Smith (knee) all should return from injuries for this game. Running back Mark Ingram has rushed for 470 yards and seven scores while tight end Mark Andrews has a team-high 36 receptions. The Ravens defense has recorded just 12 sacks and been vulnerable through the air, allowing an average of 265.4 yards passing – 26th in the league. Baltimore will be at winless Cincinnati next week.
The Patriots aren’t going 16-0 this year. They have five tough games in a row coming up and the Ravens are good enough to win this game. Jackson is going to give the Patriots defense a run for their money – literally – and lead them to a big upset here.
Pick: Ravens +3 (More Week 9 Free Picks)
Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 9.
Patriots are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in November.
Patriots are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.
Patriots are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 vs. AFC.
Patriots are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Patriots are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Patriots are 5-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Patriots are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Patriots are 25-10 ATS in their last 35 games on fieldturf.
Patriots are 37-15 ATS in their last 52 games following a straight up win.
Patriots are 46-19 ATS in their last 65 games overall.
Patriots are 37-16 ATS in their last 53 games following a ATS win.
Ravens are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Ravens are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
Ravens are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 9.
Ravens are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Ravens are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Ravens are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games on fieldturf.
Ravens are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games.
Ravens are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Ravens are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. AFC.
Under is 8-0 in Patriots last 8 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 5-1 in Patriots last 6 vs. AFC.
Under is 5-1 in Patriots last 6 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 games overall.
Under is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 games following a straight up win.
Under is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 games in November.
Under is 24-9 in Patriots last 33 road games.
Under is 8-3 in Patriots last 11 games on fieldturf.
Under is 7-3 in Patriots last 10 games in Week 9.
Under is 4-1 in Ravens last 5 games on fieldturf.
Over is 4-1 in Ravens last 5 vs. AFC.
Under is 8-3 in Ravens last 11 games following a bye week.
Under is 7-3 in Ravens last 10 games in November.
Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Baltimore.
Road team is 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
Underdog is 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
