New England (1-1) at Detroit (0-2)
When: Sunday, September 23rd 2018
Where: Ford Field, Detroit, MI
Time: 8:20 ET | TV: NBC
Opening Odds: New England -7/46
Its not often that Tom Brady gets outplayed at the quarterback position, but that’s exactly what happened last week in Jacksonville as Blake Bortles and the Jaguars beat up the New England Patriots. Brady and company look to bounce back when they visit the Detroit Lions on NBC’s Sunday Night Football in Week 3 action. The Patriots will be going up against former defensive coordinator Matt Patricia on Sunday, who is seeking his first victory as a head coach in the NFL. Patricia spent 14 seasons with New England – six as defensive coordinator – and should have some inside knowledge on how to slow down Brady and beat his mentor Bill Belichick. Sunday’s game could mark the Patriots debut of wide receiver Josh Gordon, who has been a limited participant in practice since he was acquired from the Cleveland Browns earlier this week. New England is 45-6 after a loss since the 2003 season, last dropping back-to-back regular-season games in 2015. The Patriots also feast on NFC opponents, going 52-13 against them since 2002 – the NFL’s best inter-conference record in that span.
New England’s defense looked dreadful last week, but usually does start the season slow, but won’t have Patricia anymore to make the necessary adjustments. Bortles threw for 376 yards and four touchdowns in last week’s 31-20 victory. Trey Flowers, the team’s top defensive lineman, was knocked out of last week’s game with a concussion and safety Patrick Chung also suffered a concussion. Neither have yet to practice this week and their availability is in doubt. Brady hit wide receiver Chris Hogan for a pair of scoring passes last week, but it was running back James White who led the team with seven catches for 73 yards. Rookie running back Sony Michel rushed for a team-high 34 yards on 10 carries in his NFL debut.
Detroit started the season off with an embarrassing Monday Night Football loss to the New York Jets 48-17 at home and fell behind by 17 points in the fourth quarter before Matthew Stafford threw a pair of touchdown passes in the 30-27 setback. Stafford has already attempted 99 passes with his team digging deep holes and their inability to run the ball continues. Rookie Kerryon Johnson has managed a team-high 60 yards on 13 carries through two games. While Golden Tate and running back Theo Riddick share the team lead with 14 catches, Kenny Golladay is becoming the big-play guy with 13 receptions for 203 yards and a score. The Lions could be without one of their top defenders with cornerback Darius Slay unable to practice this week due to a concussion.
Both of these teams have their issues for sure, especially on defense. They’re both giving up a ton of yards and have key injuries. The Lions offense is really bad and they just can’t seem to establish any sort of running game. Brady and the Patriots always seem to bounce back strong after a loss. I expect no less here in this spot.
Pick: Patriots -7
Betting Trends:
- Patriots are 8-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
- Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Patriots are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 road games.
- Patriots are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games on fieldturf.
- Patriots are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS loss.
- Patriots are 21-7-2 ATS in their last 30 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Patriots are 26-9 ATS in their last 35 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Patriots are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Patriots are 43-18-1 ATS in their last 62 games following a straight up loss.
- Patriots are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games in September.
- Patriots are 37-18-2 ATS in their last 57 games overall.
- Patriots are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Lions are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Lions are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games on fieldturf.
- Lions are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Lions are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games in Week 3.
- Under is 5-0 in Patriots last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Under is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 road games.
- Over is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 games in September.
- Under is 8-3 in Patriots last 11 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 5-2 in Patriots last 7 games following a straight up loss.
- Over is 5-2 in Patriots last 7 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 5-1 in Lions last 6 games in September.
- Over is 5-1 in Lions last 6 games following a straight up loss.
- Over is 4-1 in Lions last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 8-2 in Lions last 10 home games.
- Over is 8-3 in Lions last 11 games overall.
- Over is 5-2 in Lions last 7 games on fieldturf.
- Over is 5-2 in Lions last 7 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 9-4 in Lions last 13 games following a ATS win.
- Over is 31-14 in Lions last 45 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
