New England (8-1) at Philadelphia (5-4)
When: Sunday, November 17th, 2019
Where: Lincoln Financial Field,
Time: 4:25 ET | TV: CBS
Opening Odds: New England -3/46.5
The knock on the New England Patriots 8-0 start to the season is that they didn’t really play anyone good. Well, in their last game, they went to a tough Baltimore Ravens squad and were pummeled 37-20, as their top ranked defense showed some holes. The Patriots are coming off their bye week and usually come out strong in such situations. New England travels to Philadelphia this weekend in a rematch of Super Bowl 52, a game in which the Patriots lost 41-33 in Minneapolis. Almost no other team is as effective at getting a win after taking a loss than the Patriots, and since 2016, New England is 8-2 in that scenario, including 7-3 ATS in that stretch. New England is 6-3 against the spread this season, while the Eagles are 5-4 overall and 4-5 ATS. The Philadelphia Eagles are 2-2 against teams with winning records and are also coming off a bye after beating both the Buffalo Bills and Chicago Bears in back-to-back weeks. Philadelphia a 14-4 record in games right after the bye since 2001 and are tied with the Dallas Cowboys for first place in the NFC East. The betting odds for this game opened at New England -3, but the money has gone in favor of the favorite, and as of Saturday afternoon, sits at Patriots -4.5.
New England is all of the sudden in race for the AFC’s top spot, one game ahead of the Ravens after their Week 9 setback. Also on the Patriots’ side is the thirst for revenge that they’ll have against the team that prevented Tom Brady from claiming his sixth Super Bowl ring that year, only for the future Hall of Famer to get it the very next year. “You assume I’m over it? Come on now,” Brady said on a radio show on Monday morning. “That’s a lot of mental scar tissue from that year. That was a tough game.” The Patriots defense could not solve Lamar Jackson, who threw for 163 yards and a touchdown and rushed for 61 yards and two more scores. New England still owns the No. 1 defense in terms of yards allowed (249.3) and points surrendered (10.9), while also ranking second against the pass (150.2). Brady was held to one touchdown or less for the fourth time in six games, but the offense still ranks seventh in the league in passing. Recently acquired wide receiver Mohamed Sanu, caught 10 passes for 81 yards and a score in his second game with the club. Running back Sony Michel had a season-low four carries versus the Ravens and has yet to eclipse 100 yards after reaching that mark six times last season. New England will host another NFC East opponent next week in the Cowboys.
The Eagles were busy during their bye, and brought back Jordan Matthews for the third time to replace an injured DeSean Jackson at wide receiver, while also signing right guard Brandon Brooks to a four-year contract extension. Carson Wentz doesn’t have a great track record when it comes to facing strong defenses and the Patriots have held quarterbacks they face to a 45.8 passer rating. Wentz, who missed the Super Bowl victory over New England due to a knee injury, has 11 touchdowns versus two interceptions over his last seven games but has a thin receiving corps to deal with. Alshon Jeffery (ankle) did not practice for a second straight day and DeSean Jackson was placed on injured reserve, so the Eagles may lean on the running game led by Jordan Howard (525 yards, 6 TDs rushing) and rookie Miles Sanders. Philadelphia ranks eighth defensively overall and fourth versus the run (87.3 yards), but still allow 23.7 points per game. The Eagles will host the Seattle Seahawks next Sunday afternoon – a game that was flexed out of the Sunday Night Football schedule.
I think the Patriots will struggle offensively in this one. The Eagles have an underrated defense and the week off will not only help New England, it will also help Philly. The Patriots defense was exposed in Baltimore and my not be as good as everyone thinks. Take the points.
Pick: Eagles +4.5 (More Week 11 Free Picks)
Patriots are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 11.
Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on grass.
Patriots are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a bye week.
Patriots are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Patriots are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in November.
Patriots are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games.
Patriots are 37-15-1 ATS in their last 53 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
Patriots are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Patriots are 46-20 ATS in their last 66 games overall.
Patriots are 36-16 ATS in their last 52 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Patriots are 46-21-1 ATS in their last 68 games following a straight up loss.
Patriots are 35-16-2 ATS in their last 53 games following a straight up loss of more than 14 points.
Patriots are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games following a ATS loss.
Patriots are 21-10 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Eagles are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
Eagles are 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Eagles are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up win.
Eagles are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games on grass.
Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 11.
Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 4-0 in Patriots last 4 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
Under is 8-1 in Patriots last 9 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 8-1 in Patriots last 9 games following a straight up loss of more than 14 points.
Over is 6-1 in Patriots last 7 games following a bye week.
Under is 5-1 in Patriots last 6 road games.
Under is 13-3 in Patriots last 16 games following a straight up loss.
Under is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 games on grass.
Under is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 games in Week 11.
Under is 11-4 in Patriots last 15 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 19-7 in Patriots last 26 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 15-6 in Patriots last 21 games overall.
Under is 5-2 in Patriots last 7 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 6-1 in Eagles last 7 games following a straight up win.
Under is 5-1 in Eagles last 6 games in November.
Under is 5-1 in Eagles last 6 games following a ATS win.
Under is 10-2-1 in Eagles last 13 games in Week 11.
Under is 9-2 in Eagles last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Over is 4-1 in Eagles last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 6-2 in Eagles last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 12-5 in Eagles last 17 home games.
Under is 14-6 in Eagles last 20 games following a bye week.
Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
Underdog is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.