Chicago (4-5) at LA Rams (5-4)
When: Sunday, November 17th, 2019
Where: L.A. Memorial Coliseum,
Los Angeles, CA
Time: 8:20 ET | TV: NBC
Opening Odds: Los Angeles -7/42
Two teams who have not lived up to expectations take the field this Sunday night in Los Angeles as the Rams host the Chicago Bears at the L.A. Memorial Coliseum. Back when the 2019 NFL schedule was released, this looked like one of the marquee matchups of the season. Los Angeles finished 13-3 in 2018, won the NFC West and of course would go on to lose in the Super Bowl to New England. Chicago was 12-4 and won the NFC North but was upset in the Wild-Card round by Philadelphia. Chicago is coming off a much-needed home victory over the Detroit Lions to keep their playoff hopes alive, while the Rams offense was horrible in a 17-12 loss at Pittsburgh. The teams did play in the 2018 regular season on a cold Sunday night in Chicago in Week 14 and the Bears’ defense was spectacular in a 15-6 victory. Los Angeles was held to just 214 yards and turned the ball over four times – all interceptions by Jared Goff. Todd Gurley was held to just 28 yards rushing. Chicago QB Mitchell Trubisky wasn’t much better than Goff with 110 yards passing and three interceptions, but the Bears rushed for 194 yards. The Bears are 7-2 ATS in the past nine meetings and the over has cashed in two of the past three.
Trubisky tied his season high with three touchdown passes and didn’t turn it over in the win over the Lions last Sunday, but were outgained 357-226. Chicago struggled to run the ball against one of the NFL’s worst defenses and Trubisky was sacked five times. Rookie running back David Montgomery has recorded 235 yards and three touchdowns over his last three games after totaling 231 in his previous six, but an ankle injury in practice has him questionable for Sunday night. The Bears released Mike Davis last week, leaving the club with Tarik Cohen and Ryan Nall as the lone active backs. Wide receiver Allen Robinson has 53 receptions for 618 yards, with those totals eclipsing the sum of all other wide receivers on the team. Chicago’s feared defense could be missing linebacker Danny Trevathan (team-leading 70 tackles), who is nursing an ailing elbow that ultimately could land him on injured reserve. Chicago is 9-3 ATS in its past 12 after a win and will host the New York Giants next week.
Goff led the Rams offense to just three points, with their only touchdown came via their defense. Goff was picked off twice and lost a fumble, which was returned for a touchdown. Top receiver Cooper Kupp was held without a catch for just the second time in his three-year career and the Rams converted just 1-of-14 third downs. Part of the Rams’ issues was a banged-up offensive line that was unable to protect Goff, who was sacked four times and under duress throughout the contest. Todd Gurley averaged 6.08 yards per carry versus Pittsburgh before being held without one throughout the fourth quarter. The L.A. defense played well enough to win, holding the Steelers to 273 yards and forcing two turnovers. The unit is ranked fifth in the NFL in rushing defense, holding the opposition to just 90.8 yards a game.
This is way too many points to lay on a Rams team that is really struggling on offense. Yes, the Bears offense stinks too, but I trust the Chicago defense to keep this one close.
Pick: Bears +6.5 (More Week 11 Free Picks)
Bears are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 11.
Bears are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in November.
Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
Bears are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up win.
Bears are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win.
Bears are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 vs. NFC.
Bears are 21-43-1 ATS in their last 65 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Rams are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Rams are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Rams are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. NFC.
Rams are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Rams are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
Rams are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall.
Rams are 3-12-2 ATS in their last 17 games in Week 11.
Rams are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games in November.
Under is 4-0 in Bears last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Under is 8-1 in Bears last 9 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 10-2 in Bears last 12 games on grass.
Under is 5-1 in Bears last 6 games following a ATS win.
Under is 9-2 in Bears last 11 vs. NFC.
Under is 4-1 in Bears last 5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Bears last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 11-3 in Bears last 14 games overall.
Under is 9-3 in Bears last 12 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 5-2 in Bears last 7 games following a straight up win.
Under is 7-3 in Bears last 10 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 4-0 in Rams last 4 games overall.
Under is 4-0 in Rams last 4 games on grass.
Under is 5-1 in Rams last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Rams last 5 home games.
Under is 4-1 in Rams last 5 games in Week 11.
Over is 5-2 in Rams last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Los Angeles.
Bears are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings.