San Diego (68-83) at Milwaukee (82-69)
When: Wednesday, September 18, 2019
Where: Miller Park,
Milwaukee, WI
Time: 7:40 ET | TV: FS San Diego/Wisconsin
Opening Odds: Milwaukee -160/9
This is the time of year when you get matchups with teams going in complete opposite directions and we have a prime case this week in Milwaukee where the surging Brewers host the hapless San Diego Padres. Milwaukee has been on quite a run this month, winning 11 of their last 12 games to not only tie the Chicago Cubs for the second wild card spot, but are within two games of the St. Louis Cardinals for the NL Central lead. The Brewers, who are 6-1 since losing MVP Christian Yelich for the season, used a Mike Moustakas solo homer in the seventh to help get past the Padres 3-1 in the second of a four-game set. Milwaukee used five pitchers to combine on a four-hitter including Drew Pomeranz, who notched his second save Tuesday and has a 2.53 ERA in 20 games since being traded from San Francisco. Milwaukee aims to even-up the season series with the Padres at three wins apiece behind right-hander Adrian Houser. Dinelson Lamet goes for San Diego, which has tied its season high with six consecutive setbacks. Outfielder Hunter Renfroe returned from an ankle injury Tuesday to club his 32nd home run and his first since Aug. 10 for the struggling Padres.
Pitchers: Padres – Dinelson Lamet (2-5, 4.06 ERA) | Brewers – Adrian Houser (6-6, 3.84)
Lamet has been hurt by run support in his last three starts – all losses – and will make his 12th start on Wednesday. He is 0-3 in his last three outings despite a respectable 3.38 ERA while striking out 21 over 16 innings. Lamet, who is 2-2 with a 3.19 ERA in six road starts, struck out a career high-tying 12 in six innings at Miller Park back in 2017.
Houser had allowed exactly one run in five consecutive starts until he was hit hard by the Cubs and Cardinals in his latest two outings. He allowed seven runs and eight hits over seven total innings against them including a 10-0 loss at St. Louis last time out – Milwaukee’s only loss in its last 12 contests. Houser will get his first start against San Diego but did pitch 3.1 scoreless innings against them in relief earlier this season.
I always take a look at the underdog in an MLB game and dig to see if I can support a play on them. I see nothing in San Diego that gives me confidence that they can beat this red-hot Milwaukee team. I’m not saying they can’t, but laying less than a buck-fifty with a team that has won 11-of-12 is a no-brainer.
Check out who Bobby Babowski has on his Free MLB Picks page for Wednesday. He is 130-88 +2928 units on the season after a 31-15 run!
Pick: Brewers -140
BETTING TRENDS:
Padres are 2-6 in their last 8 vs. National League Central.
Padres are 2-7 in their last 9 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Padres are 2-9 in their last 11 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Padres are 2-9 in their last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.
Padres are 0-8 in their last 8 road games.
Padres are 0-5 in their last 5 games following a loss.
Padres are 0-5 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Padres are 0-8 in their last 8 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Padres are 0-6 in their last 6 overall.
Padres are 0-8 in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Padres are 0-7 in their last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Padres are 0-6 in their last 6 games on grass.
Padres are 0-4 in their last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Padres are 3-7 in Lamet’s last 10 road starts.
Padres are 3-8 in Lamet’s last 11 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Padres are 7-19 in Lamet’s last 26 starts.
Padres are 7-19 in Lamet’s last 26 starts on grass.
Padres are 2-7 in Lamet’s last 9 starts with 5 days of rest.
Padres are 1-6 in Lamet’s last 7 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Padres are 2-14 in Lamet’s last 16 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Padres are 0-4 in Lamet’s last 4 starts during game 3 of a series.
Brewers are 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Brewers are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Brewers are 5-0 in their last 5 during game 3 of a series.
Brewers are 8-0 in their last 8 Wednesday games.
Brewers are 5-0 in their last 5 home games.
Brewers are 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Brewers are 11-1 in their last 12 vs. a team with a losing record.
Brewers are 9-1 in their last 10 games following a win.
Brewers are 6-1 in their last 7 vs. National League West.
Brewers are 14-3 in their last 17 overall.
Brewers are 14-3 in their last 17 games on grass.
Brewers are 4-1 in their last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Brewers are 4-1 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
Brewers are 19-7 in their last 26 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Brewers are 3-8 in Houser’s last 11 starts.
Brewers are 3-8 in Houser’s last 11 starts on grass.
Brewers are 1-6 in Houser’s last 7 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Under is 4-0 in Padres last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 4-0 in Padres last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 4-1 in Padres last 5 during game 3 of a series.
Under is 20-6 in Padres last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Under is 20-8-2 in Padres last 30 vs. National League Central.
Under is 7-3 in Padres last 10 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Under is 15-7 in Padres last 22 Wednesday games.
Under is 4-0-1 in Lamet’s last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 4-1 in Lamet’s last 5 starts vs. National League Central.
Under is 4-1 in Lamet’s last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 3-1-1 in Lamet’s last 5 starts on grass.
Under is 3-1-1 in Lamet’s last 5 starts overall.
Under is 5-0 in Brewers last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
Under is 5-0 in Brewers last 5 vs. National League West.
Under is 12-2 in Brewers last 14 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 4-1 in Brewers last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Under is 4-1 in Brewers last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
Under is 8-2 in Brewers last 10 home games.
Under is 7-2 in Brewers last 9 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 13-5 in Brewers last 18 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 5-2 in Brewers last 7 during game 3 of a series.
Under is 17-7-1 in Brewers last 25 overall.
Under is 17-7-1 in Brewers last 25 on grass.
Under is 7-3 in Brewers last 10 Wednesday games.
Under is 6-1 in Houser’s last 7 home starts.
Under is 5-1 in Houser’s last 6 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Houser’s last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.
Under is 5-2 in Houser’s last 7 starts on grass.
Under is 5-2 in Houser’s last 7 starts overall.
Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
