Green Bay (14-3) at San Francisco (14-3)
When: Sunday, January 19th, 2020
Where: Levi’s Stadium,
Santa Clara, CA
Time: 6:40 ET | TV: FOX
Opening Odds: San Francisco -7/44.5
Every regular season NFL game is important for one reason or another and this year’s Green Bay at San Francisco result proved to be pivotal. The 49ers mauled the Packers 37-8 at home and thus gaining home field advantage in their rematch this Sunday in the NFC Championship Game. Both teams finished 13-3 and got a first round bye. Jimmy Garoppolo threw for 253 yards and two scores and was way better than Aaron Rodgers, who had one of the worst games of his career in throwing for just 104 yards and the team totaled just 198 yards. Green Bay held off Russell Wilson and the Seahawks 28-23 last week, while the 49ers cruised past the Minnesota Vikings 27-10, setting up a rematch. This will be the first postseason meeting between the teams since a 23-20 San Francisco win at Lambeau Field in a wild card game following the 2013 season. Colin Kaepernick led the way with 227 yards passing and a touchdown as well as 98 yards rushing, while Rodgers had just 177 yards passing for the Packers. Rodgers is looking for his second Super Bowl trip after winning SB XLV over Pittsburgh. Garoppolo is looking for his first Super Bowl trip as a starting quarterback and the 49ers haven’t been to the big game since losing XLVII to Baltimore 34-31. The Packers are 2-5 against the spread in the past seven meetings. The winner faces either Kansas City or Tennessee in the Super Bowl on Feb. 2.
The Packers took care of Seattle last week in what was their first playoff game in three years and Rodgers threw for 243 yards and two scores without turning it over. The future Hall of Famer now has 38 career playoff touchdown passes (17 starts), fifth-most in league history. Top target Davante Adams caught eight balls for 160 yards and two scores. After tying for the NFL lead with 19 touchdowns during the regular season, tailback Aaron Jones rushed for two more. The Green Bay defense was after Wilson all night and sacked him five times, including once late by Preston Smith that wrapped it up. Starting Green Bay right tackle Bryan Bulaga was active but didn’t play due to illness. The Packers are 7-1 ATS in their past eight vs. teams with a winning record.
The 49ers will have one extra day rest than Green Bay as they dominated the Minnesota Vikings last Saturday, 27-10. The San Francisco could be the best in the league when everyone is healthy. Three key players were back on the field vs. the Vikings after missing some time. Dee Ford, linebacker Kwon Alexander and safety Jaquiski Tartt helped hold the Vikings to just 147 yards and 21 on the ground, the fewest the Niners have ever surrendered in a playoff game. Rookie standout Nick Bosa led the way with two of San Francisco’s six sacks of Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins. Running back Tevin Coleman led a stellar running attack with 105 yards and two scores, while Garoppolo was 11-for-19 for 131 yards and touchdown and interception. San Fran is just 7-19-1 ATS in their past 27 as home favorites.
The 49ers sure looked good last week, but Kirk Cousins is no Aaron Rodgers. The San Fran defense held Dalvin Cook in check, but I believe Aaron Jones has an all around solid game to keep the Niners on their toes before Rodgers shreds the secondary. I will take Green Bay in a playoff game and 7.5 points almost every time.
Pick: Packers +7.5 (NFL Playoff Staff Free Picks)
Packers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Packers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Packers are 7-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 playoff games as an underdog.
Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in January.
Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 playoff games.
Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff road games.
49ers are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in January.
49ers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
49ers are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
49ers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
49ers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
49ers are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
49ers are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games as a favorite.
49ers are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games as a home favorite.
49ers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
49ers are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 4-0 in Packers last 4 games overall.
Under is 6-0 in Packers last 6 games following a straight up win.
Over is 4-0 in Packers last 4 games in January.
Under is 5-0 in Packers last 5 games on grass.
Under is 4-0 in Packers last 4 vs. NFC.
Under is 4-0 in Packers last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 6-1 in Packers last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Under is 5-1 in Packers last 6 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 5-1 in Packers last 6 games as an underdog.
Under is 5-1 in Packers last 6 games as a road underdog.
Over is 5-1 in Packers last 6 playoff games.
Over is 5-1 in Packers last 6 playoff road games.
Over is 4-1 in Packers last 5 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Packers last 5 playoff games as an underdog.
Under is 4-1 in Packers last 5 road games.
Over is 7-2 in Packers last 9 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 5-2 in Packers last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Over is 15-7 in Packers last 22 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 4-0 in 49ers last 4 playoff games.
Under is 5-1 in 49ers last 6 games in January.
Over is 7-2-1 in 49ers last 10 vs. NFC.
Over is 3-1-1 in 49ers last 5 games overall.
Under is 3-1-1 in 49ers last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 3-1-1 in 49ers last 5 games following a straight up win.
Over is 6-2-1 in 49ers last 9 games as a favorite.
Over is 6-2 in 49ers last 8 games on grass.
Over is 5-2 in 49ers last 7 games as a home favorite.
Over is 5-2 in 49ers last 7 home games.
Under is 14-6 in 49ers last 20 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Packers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
