Baltimore (71-71) at Cleveland (86-56)
When: Sunday, September 10th 2017
Where: Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH
Time: 8:05 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Cleveland -182/9.5
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The Cleveland Indians are on a remarkable run as we head into the last few weeks of the regular season, and will vie for their 18th consecutive victory when they wrap-up a three-game set with the Baltimore Orioles on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball. Trevor Bauer, who is looking for an American League-best 16th victory, has won a career-best eight straight decisions and owns a 2.47 ERA in his last 10 outings. Francisco Lindor hit his second solo homer in three days during Saturday’s 4-2 victory, improving to 6-for-13 with five runs scored in that stretch. Cleveland’s shortstop is 9-for-27 with two homers, six RBIs in five games against the Orioles this season. While Cleveland hasn’t lost since August 23rd and has outscored its poor opponents 118-30 during its ridiculous winning streak, Baltimore has been outscored 18-3 during its three-game skid to fall three games behind Minnesota for the second AL Wild Card spot. Manny Machado has hit safely in seven of his last nine games and is 6-for-9 with three homers and four RBIs in his career versus Bauer. Baltimore SS Tim Beckham, who hit his 20th homer on Saturday, is batting .350 with eight HRs and 21 RBIs since being acquired from Tampa Bay at the July 31st trade deadline.
Pitchers: Orioles – Jeremy Hellickson (8-8, 5.26 ERA) | Indians – Trevor Bauer (15-8, 4.39)
Jeremy Hellickson has not been great since coming over from Philadelphia, running a 2-3 mark with a 6.87 ERA in seven starts. He somehow came away with a no-decision in his last outing against the New York Yankees when he allowed five runs in 2.1 innings. Hellickson issued four walks for the second straight outing to drive up his pitch count on Tuesday, although he kept the ball in the park after surrendering eight homers in his previous four outings. Hellickson owns a 2-1 mark with a 3.00 ERA in four career starts versus Cleveland.
Bauer has made seven quality starts in his last eight outings and has struck out 65 in his last 58.1 innings spanning 10 appearances (nine starts). He won his fourth consecutive start on Monday after striking out nine and allowing just two runs on three hits in a 5-3 victory at the Chicago White Sox. Bauer hasn’t been great in his career versus Baltimore, posting an 0-3 mark with a 6.75 ERA.
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This is the type of situation where you just keep betting the Indians until they lose. If you said that after they won, say, eight in a row, you would be rich right now. The pitching matchup heavily favors the Indians also, so I’ll take the runline here and head on over to watch the Giants vs. Cowboys game instead.
Pick: Indians -1.5 -105
BETTING TRENDS:
- Orioles are 9-3 in their last 12 Sunday games.
- Orioles are 6-2 in their last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Orioles are 5-2 in their last 7 games following a loss.
- Orioles are 11-26 in their last 37 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Orioles are 2-5 in their last 7 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Orioles are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Orioles are 1-4 in their last 5 overall.
- Orioles are 1-4 in their last 5 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Orioles are 1-4 in their last 5 games on grass.
- Orioles are 0-4 in their last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Orioles are 4-0 in Hellickson’s last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Indians are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. American League East.
- Indians are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 3 of a series.
- Indians are 24-6 in their last 30 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Indians are 4-1 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
- Indians are 10-3 in their last 13 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Indians are 20-6 in their last 26 home games.
- Indians are 20-6 in their last 26 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Indians are 41-13 in their last 54 games following a win.
- Indians are 39-13 in their last 52 overall.
- Indians are 39-16 in their last 55 games on grass.
- Indians are 37-17 in their last 54 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Indians are 13-6 in their last 19 Sunday games.
- Indians are 35-17 in their last 52 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Indians are 4-0 in Bauer’s last 4 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Indians are 5-0 in Bauer’s last 5 starts vs. American League East.
- Indians are 5-0 in Bauer’s last 5 starts.
- Indians are 5-0 in Bauer’s last 5 starts on grass.
- Indians are 6-1 in Bauer’s last 7 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Indians are 4-1 in Bauer’s last 5 home starts.
- Indians are 4-1 in Bauer’s last 5 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Indians are 5-2 in Bauer’s last 7 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 road games.
- Under is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Under is 16-3-2 in Orioles last 21 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 5-1-1 in Orioles last 7 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Orioles last 5 games following a loss.
- Under is 4-1 in Orioles last 5 vs. American League Central.
- Under is 11-3 in Orioles last 14 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 3-1-1 in Orioles last 5 during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 20-7-1 in Orioles last 28 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 5-0 in Hellickson’s last 5 starts on grass.
- Over is 5-0 in Hellickson’s last 5 starts overall.
- Under is 4-1 in Indians last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 4-1 in Indians last 5 Sunday games.
- Under is 4-1 in Indians last 5 home games.
- Under is 4-1 in Indians last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 6-2-1 in Indians last 9 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
- Under is 8-3 in Indians last 11 during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 16-7-1 in Indians last 24 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Under is 6-1-3 in Bauer’s last 10 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Under is 5-1-2 in Bauer’s last 8 starts on grass.
- Under is 5-1-2 in Bauer’s last 8 starts overall.
- Under is 4-1 in Bauer’s last 5 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 35-14-5 in Bauer’s last 54 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 5-2-1 in Bauer’s last 8 home starts.
- Under is 32-13-6 in Bauer’s last 51 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 9-4 in Bauer’s last 13 Sunday starts.
- Under is 16-5-1 in the last 22 meetings.
- Orioles are 0-4 in the last 4 meetings.
- Indians are 0-4 in Bauer’s last 4 starts vs. Orioles.
