Baltimore (40-43) at Milwaukee (46-40)
When: Wednesday, July 5th 2017
Where: Miller Park, Milwaukee, WI
Time: 7:10 ET | TV: MASN2, FSN Wisconsin
Opening Odds: Milwaukee -130/10.5
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The Milwaukee Brewers, who are 17-7 in the third game of a series, will look to complete the sweep of the Baltimore Orioles on Wednesday night at Miller Park. Milwaukee slugger Eric Thames sat out the opener of the series – an 8-1 win for the Brewers – but was back in there against a right-hander Tuesday afternoon and responded in a big way. He blasted his 22nd and 23rd home runs as part of a four-homer day for Milwaukee, which opened up a season-high 3.5-game lead in the National League Central. Travis Shaw had one of the other two home runs for the Brewers a day after he was struck in the wrist with a pitch, and the third baseman has four HRs in his last eight games. The Orioles are still waiting for their third baseman to start hitting again, as Manny Machado was held to a single in four at-bats Tuesday and is 3-for-31 over his last eight games. The hottest hitter on the team is All-Star second baseman Jonathan Schoop, who homered and scored twice Tuesday for his multi-hit effort in his last nine games. The Orioles continue to fall down the AL East standings (8 GB), but are still in the thick of the Wild Card race (3 GB) and can be a threat if they can get some decent starting pitching. Jayson Aquino will get the start for Baltimore in place of Chris Tillman, who is expected to be placed on the paternity list. Here’s my 2-cents on Tillman: Stay on paternity list or go back to Triple-A.
Pitchers: Orioles – Jayson Aquino (1-1, 9.00 ERA) | Brewers – Matt Garza (3-4, 4.36)
Aquino will be making just his second career start and his first since April 22nd, when he held Boston to two runs in six innings. He followed that up with two relief appearances for Baltimore and gave up six runs in just two innings, which prompted a demotion to Triple-A Norfolk. Aquino is 2-7 with a 4.46 ERA in 12 starts for the Tides.
Matt Garza is coming off a solid outing in which he let up two runs and six hits in five innings of a no-decision against Miami on Friday in a game the Brewers would win 3-2. He is 9-1 with a 3.11 ERA lifetime versus Baltimore, although he has not faced the Orioles in over three years. Garza has not lasted more than six innings in six of his last seven starts, has allowed seven home runs in 36.1 innings at home this year.
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Milwaukee is just simply a better team than Baltimore and the pitching matchup favors the Brewers despite Garza. The Orioles are replacing a poor pitcher with another one here tonight. Look for the Brewers to sweep this series.
Pick: Brewers -130
W/L TRENDS
| Baltimore |
- Orioles are 4-1 in their last 5 during game 3 of a series.
- Orioles are 9-4 in their last 13 vs. National League Central.
- Orioles are 29-13 in their last 42 interleague games.
- Orioles are 20-9 in their last 29 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Orioles are 7-19 in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Orioles are 8-22 in their last 30 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Orioles are 4-12 in their last 16 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Orioles are 6-20 in their last 26 road games.
- Orioles are 4-14 in their last 18 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Orioles are 1-4 in their last 5 overall.
- Orioles are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Orioles are 1-4 in their last 5 games after losing the first 2 games of a series.
- Orioles are 3-13 in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Orioles are 1-5 in their last 6 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Orioles are 1-6 in their last 7 games on grass.
- Orioles are 0-4 in their last 4 interleague road games.
- Orioles are 0-4 in their last 4 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Orioles are 0-4 in their last 4 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record.
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| Milwaukee |
- Brewers are 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Brewers are 6-1 in their last 7 home games.
- Brewers are 6-1 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Brewers are 5-1 in their last 6 overall.
- Brewers are 5-1 in their last 6 games on grass.
- Brewers are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Brewers are 14-3 in their last 17 during game 3 of a series.
- Brewers are 4-1 in their last 5 Wednesday games.
- Brewers are 6-2 in their last 8 interleague home games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Brewers are 14-5 in their last 19 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Brewers are 5-2 in their last 7 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Brewers are 15-6 in their last 21 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Brewers are 10-4 in their last 14 interleague games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Brewers are 2-5 in their last 7 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Brewers are 7-0 in Garza’s last 7 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Brewers are 6-1 in Garza’s last 7 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Brewers are 4-1 in Garza’s last 5 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Brewers are 4-1 in Garza’s last 5 Wednesday starts.
- Brewers are 3-7 in Garza’s last 10 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Brewers are 4-10 in Garza’s last 14 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Brewers are 2-5 in Garza’s last 7 starts.
- Brewers are 2-5 in Garza’s last 7 starts on grass.
- Brewers are 0-4 in Garza’s last 4 starts with 4 days of rest.
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OU TRENDS
| Baltimore |
- Under is 5-0 in Orioles last 5 road games.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Orioles last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Orioles last 5 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 7-1 in Orioles last 8 overall.
- Under is 6-1-1 in Orioles last 8 on grass.
- Under is 5-1 in Orioles last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 5-1 in Orioles last 6 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-1 in Orioles last 6 interleague road games.
- Under is 4-1 in Orioles last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 7-2 in Orioles last 9 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 6-2 in Orioles last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 8-3 in Orioles last 11 interleague games.
- Over is 13-5-1 in Orioles last 19 games following a loss.
- Over is 7-3 in Orioles last 10 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 38-17 in Orioles last 55 vs. National League Central.
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| Milwaukee |
- Under is 9-1 in Brewers last 10 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 5-1 in Brewers last 6 interleague home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-1 in Brewers last 5 interleague games.
- Under is 4-1 in Brewers last 5 vs. American League East.
- Over is 3-1-1 in Brewers last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 5-2-1 in Brewers last 8 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 5-2 in Brewers last 7 home games.
- Under is 5-2 in Brewers last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 7-3-1 in Brewers last 11 interleague home games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Over is 23-10-3 in Brewers last 36 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
- Over is 33-16-6 in Brewers last 55 interleague home games.
- Over is 4-0 in Garza’s last 4 interleague starts.
- Under is 6-1 in Garza’s last 7 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Under is 6-1 in Garza’s last 7 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 13-3-2 in Garza’s last 18 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-1 in Garza’s last 5 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 4-1 in Garza’s last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Garza’s last 5 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
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HEAD TO HEAD
- Orioles are 0-4 in the last 4 meetings in Milwaukee.
- Orioles are 0-4 in the last 4 meetings.
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