Ohio (8-2, 5-1) at Akron (5-5, 4-2)
When: Tuesday, November 14th 2017
Where: InfoCision Stadium, Akron, OH
Time: 7:00 ET | TV: ESPN2
Opening Odds: Ohio -10.5/51
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The Mid-American Conference East title is on the line when the Akron Zips host the Ohio Bobcats on Tuesday night at InfoCision Stadium on ESPN2. These are the only two teams that can represent the East in December’s MAC Championship Game in Detroit and Ohio is in the driver’s seat. With a win, the Bobcats will clinch the division, but if Akron can pull off the upset, they could claim the title by beating lowly Kent State next week. Ohio was impressive last week with a 38-10 drubbing of West-leading Toledo – a team they could meet again in Detroit. The Bobcats ran all over the Rockets defense for 393 yards and held the high-flying Toledo offense in check. It was Ohio’s third straight win since a 26-23 setback to Central Michigan on October 7th. The Bobcats have already clinched their eighth Bowl bid in last nine seasons. Akron was predicted to finish in the middle of the division in preseason polls, but they now control their own destiny and could also make it back to a Bowl for the second time in three years. The Zips, who are 5-5 overall, started the year 1-3 with losses to Penn State, Iowa State and Troy. Akron has rebounded by winning four out of its last six, including a 14-13 thriller at Western Michigan on October 15th. Ohio holds a 19-13-1 series edge over Akron and have won the last nine meetings.
The secret to beating Ohio is stopping the run, but that’s easier said than done. The Bobcats have the 12th-best rushing offense in the nation at 250.8 yards a game and is second in the MAC behind Western Michigan. The Bobcats top the conference with a hefty 5.7 per carry average and have scored 35 times on the ground. Junior A.J. Ouellette leads the team with 897 yards and averages 5.7 yards per carry and has scored seven touchdowns, which ranks second on the team behind quarterback Nathan Rourke. The junior college transfer has rushed for 668 yards and 17 touchdowns through 10 games. Senior Dorian Brown also contributes nicely with 600 yards. Quinton Maxwell opened the 2017 season as the starter, but Rourke was promoted to the starting job in the third game of the season. Since that point, the Bobcats have only two games of fewer than 30 points and have scored at least 38 in each of their last four games. Ohio’s defense is vulnerable to the pass (252.5 yards a game), but is almost unstoppable against the run, ranking 12th in the country (116.1).
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The biggest question Arkon has going into this pivotal game is who will be under center. Senior Thomas Woodson started the first nine games of the year and threw for 1,742 yards and 14 touchdowns to eight interceptions, but was suspended for the contest against Miami (Ohio), leaving freshman Kato Nelson as the team’s No. 1 quarterback against the Redhawks. The redshirt freshman acquitted himself well, throwing for 218 yards and a touchdown on 19 completions and added a rushing score. Nelson is lacking in size (6-foot-1 and 205 pounds), but makes up for it with his speed. Coach Terry Bowden has not indicated whether or not Woodson will return to the lineup for Tuesday night’s game. Whoever the QB is on Tuesday will need more help out of a ground attack averaging only 105 yards per game (124th). With Deltron Sands and Warren Ball out for the year due to injuries, Manny Morgan (3.8 per carry) and Van Edwards (3.1) need to step-up. Kwadarrius Smith (28 catches), A.J. Coney (37), Tra’Von Chapman (40) and Austin Wolf (22) are the leading wideouts. Through 10 games, the Zips have just five plays of 40 yards or more. Akron’s secondary ranks eighth in the MAC in pass efficiency defense and has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 62.9 percent of their throws.
Ohio is the superior team here, but the question you came here for is whether or not the Bobcats can win by two touchdowns or more. The answer is yes. The Akron QB situation is iffy and the Bobcats will run and throw all over the Zips defense. Akron may keep it close for a half, but the Bobcats will pull away after halftime and cruise to an East Division title.
Pick: Ohio -13
TRENDS:
- Bobcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games.
- Bobcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Bobcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Bobcats are 13-2-1 ATS in their last 16 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Bobcats are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games.
- Bobcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.
- Bobcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
- Bobcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Bobcats are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games on fieldturf.
- Bobcats are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in November.
- Bobcats are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games overall.
- Bobcats are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Zips are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
- Zips are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Tuesday games.
- Zips are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 conference games.
- Zips are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
- Zips are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Zips are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on fieldturf.
- Zips are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
- Zips are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Zips are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games in November.
- Zips are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Zips are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Zips are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Under is 5-0 in Bobcats last 5 games in November.
- Over is 6-1 in Bobcats last 7 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 5-1 in Bobcats last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Over is 4-1 in Bobcats last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Bobcats last 5 road games.
- Under is 9-3 in Bobcats last 12 Tuesday games.
- Over is 3-1-1 in Bobcats last 5 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 22-8-1 in Bobcats last 31 conference games.
- Over is 8-3 in Bobcats last 11 games overall.
- Under is 10-4-1 in Bobcats last 15 games following a straight up win.
- Over is 7-3 in Bobcats last 10 games on fieldturf.
- Under is 34-16-1 in Bobcats last 51 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Zips last 4 Tuesday games.
- Under is 5-0 in Zips last 5 games in November.
- Under is 7-1 in Zips last 8 games following a ATS win.
- Under is 7-1 in Zips last 8 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 6-1 in Zips last 7 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Under is 26-9 in Zips last 35 games following a straight up loss.
- Under is 19-7 in Zips last 26 home games.
- Under is 37-14 in Zips last 51 conference games.
- Under is 20-8 in Zips last 28 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 47-19 in Zips last 66 games overall.
- Under is 40-19 in Zips last 59 games on fieldturf.
- Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.
- Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
