Ohio State (4-0) at Nebraska (3-1)
When: Saturday, September 28, 2019
Where: Memorial Stadium,
Lincoln, Nebraska
Time: 7:30 ET | TV: ABC
Opening Odds: Ohio State -14.5/66.5
ESPN’s College GameDay will be live in Lincoln, Nebraska this weekend to take-in the Big Ten battle between Ohio State and the home Cornhuskers in what – on paper – looks like a complete mismatch. Nebraska is trying to get back to national prominence and can make a big statement with a win on Saturday as 17-point underdogs. The ‘Huskers are 3-1, but have failed to cover the spread in three of their four contests and nearly lost last week at Illinois despite outgaining the Illini by 391 yards. Ohio State coach Ryan Day is off to a 4-0 start in his first year replacing Urban Meyer and the team has been simply dominant in their last three games, outscoring Cincinnati, Indiana, and Miami Oh by a combined 169-15. Buckeyes QB Justin Fields – a transfer from Georgia – is having no trouble replacing first-round NFL draft pick Dwayne Haskins Jr., accounting for 19 touchdowns (six rushing) through four games. Nebraska went 0-3 against ranked opponents last year and has not beaten a Top 25 team since 2016. The Buckeyes have won four straight meetings with the closest coming last year in Columbus, a 36-31 Ohio State victory.
Fields and the offense has been terrific, yes, but the defense looks much stronger than a year ago and is led by Chase Young, who has 17.5 sacks since the start of the 2018 season. Fields threw four touchdowns and ran for another two – ALL in one quarter – in last week’s 76-5 victory over Miami (OH) and has a solid running game behind him. Junior running back J.K. Dobbins has rumbled for an NCAA fifth-best 477 yards and five touchdowns on just 68 carries (7.0 yards per attempt) – including 193 yards two weeks ago against the Hoosiers. Ohio State will host Michigan State next week.
One problem in this matchup for Nebraska is the defense against an Ohio State offense that is clicking right now. They’ve allowed opponents to score 25 points a game thus far including 38 to Illinois. In fairness, the Illini capitalized on several Nebraska turnovers in that game. Quarterback Adrian Martinez, who was recruited by Ohio State, helped Nebraska avoid that upset at Illinois last week when he led an offense that exceeded 300 yards rushing and 300 yards passing for the second time in school history. Martinez, a sophomore, passed for 327 yards and three touchdowns and ran for another 118. The Cornhuskers won’t play another team currently ranked until November 16th when they host Wisconsin.
I thought this could have been the year that Nebraska turns the corner, but I haven’t like what I’ve seen so far. On the other side, Ohio State looks like a legitimate playoff contender behind Fields. I can see this one getting ugly.
Pick: Ohio State -17 (More Week 5 Free Picks)
Betting Trends:
Buckeyes are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Buckeyes are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.
Buckeyes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.
Buckeyes are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Buckeyes are 6-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Buckeyes are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
Buckeyes are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Buckeyes are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on fieldturf.
Buckeyes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
Buckeyes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
Buckeyes are 36-17-1 ATS in their last 54 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Buckeyes are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Buckeyes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Cornhuskers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 conference games.
Cornhuskers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Cornhuskers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games on fieldturf.
Cornhuskers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Cornhuskers are 4-10-2 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Cornhuskers are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 home games.
Cornhuskers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Cornhuskers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Cornhuskers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games in September.
Over is 3-0-1 in Buckeyes last 4 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 4-0 in Buckeyes last 4 conference games.
Over is 9-1 in Buckeyes last 10 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 5-1-1 in Buckeyes last 7 games on fieldturf.
Over is 18-4 in Buckeyes last 22 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Over is 9-2 in Buckeyes last 11 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Buckeyes last 5 games following a ATS win.
Over is 9-3 in Buckeyes last 12 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 9-3 in Buckeyes last 12 road games.
Over is 5-2-1 in Buckeyes last 8 games overall.
Over is 5-2 in Buckeyes last 7 games following a straight up win.
Over is 11-5 in Buckeyes last 16 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
Over is 11-5 in Buckeyes last 16 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Over is 11-5 in Buckeyes last 16 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 13-3-1 in Cornhuskers last 17 conference games.
Over is 4-1 in Cornhuskers last 5 games in September.
Over is 4-1 in Cornhuskers last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Cornhuskers last 5 home games.
Over is 6-2-1 in Cornhuskers last 9 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 12-4-1 in Cornhuskers last 17 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 5-2-1 in Cornhuskers last 8 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Buckeyes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
