Denver (46-35) at Minnesota (46-35)
When: Wednesday, April 11th 2018
Where: Target Center, Minneapolis, MN
Time: 8:05 ET | TV: Altitude, FS North
Opening Odds: Minnesota -4/220
We have reached the final day of the 2017-18 NBA regular season and there is only one more spot in the 16-team postseason left to garner. The Denver Nuggets and Minnesota Timberwolves are tied for the final spot in the Western Conference and will go head-to-head in Minneapolis on Wednesday night in a win-or-go-home contest. The Timberwolves were as high as the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference at several points this season and could still finish as high as fifth with a win on Wednesday and some help, but they haven’t won more than two in a row since mid-January. They are currently on a two-game streak with wins over non-playoff teams the Memphis Grizzlies and L.A. Lakers. The pressure will be high as the Timberwolves have not qualified for the postseason since 2004. The Nuggets are streaking into this contest with wins in the last six games and have been playing playoff-type basketball for two weeks now. Denver managed to overcome an 11-point, second-half deficit and earn an 88-82 victory on Monday to stay alive (as we predicted), while holding Portland to 13 points in the fourth quarter. Denver snapped a four-game losing streak in the series with a 100-96 win last Thursday and is looking for its first victory at Minnesota since November of 2016.
Denver center Nikola Jokic has been a force during the Nuggets’ recent surge and recorded 15 points, 20 rebounds and 11 assists in Monday’s win for his second straight triple-double and 10th of the season. Jokic is averaging 23.7 points, 16 rebounds and 8.2 assists during the six-game winning streak but endured his worst shooting night of the stretch in the home win over Minnesota on Thursday, going 6-of-20 from the floor. Shooting guard Gary Harris is back from a knee injury that had him sidelined for 11 games but returned on Monday and collected 12 points in 18 minutes off the bench.
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Veteran swingman Jimmy Butler returned from knee surgery to help Minnesota win their last two games. Butler played 23 minutes against the Lakers and the Grizzlies and averaged 16.5 points while going a combined 10-of-18 from the floor. Center Karl-Anthony Towns has been a double-double machine all season and recorded his eighth in nine games on Monday, scoring 24 on 11-of-14 shooting and bringing down 18 rebounds. Towns had 26 points and 13 boards in last Thursday’s meeting with Denver. Power forward Taj Gibson (neck) was limited to eight minutes on Monday and is questionable for Wednesday.
The Nuggets are really hot right now and they’re even winning games away from home. Denver is 5-1 against the spread in their last six road games and have covered 20 of the last 25 meetings in Minneapolis. I expect a very close, back-and-forth contest here tonight, but the Nuggets are the better team right now and will cover the three points or win the game outright.
Pick: Nuggets +3
- Nuggets are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. NBA Northwest.
- Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.
- Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Nuggets are 9-4-2 ATS in their last 15 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Nuggets are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
- Timberwolves are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
- Timberwolves are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 Wednesday games.
- Timberwolves are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Northwest.
- Timberwolves are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
- Timberwolves are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.
- Timberwolves are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 1 days rest.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Nuggets last 4 road games.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Nuggets last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 9-1-1 in Nuggets last 11 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Under is 16-5 in Nuggets last 21 vs. NBA Northwest.
- Under is 6-2-1 in Nuggets last 9 games following a straight up win.
- Over is 9-3-1 in Nuggets last 13 games following a ATS win.
- Over is 10-4 in Nuggets last 14 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
- Over is 22-9-1 in Nuggets last 32 overall.
- Over is 11-5 in Nuggets last 16 vs. Western Conference.
- Under is 4-0 in Timberwolves last 4 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.
- Over is 10-2 in Timberwolves last 12 games playing on 1 days rest.
- Under is 5-1 in Timberwolves last 6 vs. Western Conference.
- Under is 4-1 in Timberwolves last 5 overall.
- Over is 8-2 in Timberwolves last 10 Wednesday games.
- Under is 4-1 in Timberwolves last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
- Over is 10-3 in Timberwolves last 13 home games.
- Over is 8-3 in Timberwolves last 11 vs. NBA Northwest.
- Over is 5-2 in Timberwolves last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Nuggets are 20-5-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings in Minnesota.
- Under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.
- Underdog is 20-7 ATS in the last 27 meetings.
- Road team is 38-13-1 ATS in the last 52 meetings.
