Notre Dame (2-1) at Michigan State (2-0)
When: Saturday, September 23rd 2017
Where: Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, MI
Time: 8:00 ET | TV: FOX
Opening Odds: Notre Dame -7.5/54
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Long time rivals meet Saturday night when the Michigan State Spartans host the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in what is a must-win game for Brian Kelly and the Irish. Kelly has been on the hot seat for a few years now and Irish fans are growing tired of losing. Notre Dame comes into this contest as favorites, which makes the pressure even greater to pull out a victory on the road. The Spartans earned home victories over Bowling Green and Western Michigan prior to a bye week, while the Irish are coming off a victory over Boston College last weekend. Michigan State will look to dominate Notre Dame on the ground like they did last season, when the Spartans held the ball for 37:57 and recorded 260 yards on 52 carries. LJ Scott (125 yards, one TD) is off to a slow start as their leading rusher is quarterback Brian Lewerke (151). The Irish defense has held opponents to 151.7 rushing yards a game and has recorded six sacks this season, compared to 14 for all of last year. Notre Dame’s offense is led by a nice ground game with running back Josh Adams (443 yards, two TDs, 7.9 yards per carry) and quarterback Brandon Wimbush (314, six, 6.4) both averaging more than 100 yards a game. Michigan State ranks second among opponents in all-time victories (29) over Notre Dame, trailing only USC (37).
Wimbush had high expectations coming into this season and has so far lived up to them. The junior became the first QB in Notre Dame history to put together a 200-yard rushing performance with his 207 against Boston College, and he was the first Irish player period to score four rushing touchdowns since October 1994. Kelly still thinks of Wimbush as a passer first, and he’s expecting to put him in more of a position to use his arm than his legs going forward. Notre Dame is 15-of-15 in scoring in the red zone this season, tied with 19 other teams in the FBS.
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The Michigan State defense has been terrific early on, not allowing a single offensive touchdown in the first two games and leading FBS schools in third-down defense (10.7%) and are ranked second in yards allowed (203.5). Wimbush will be a difficult challenge for the Spartans, however. Michigan State defensive players have talked about needing to play more containment and keep Wimbush in the pocket rather than taking shots at him that might miss, allowing him to get out into the open field. Lewerke ranks fourth in the Big Ten in total offense, averaging 280.5 yards a game.
TCU VS OKLAHOMA STATE PREVIEW AND PREDICTION
This Notre Dame team and Kelly have a lot of pressure on them to win, and win now. They’re taking care of the easy teams on the schedule, but they have a lot of tough games being an independent. They’re actually road favorites in this one and I don’t think they should be. Michigan State had a terrible year in 2016, but Dantonio is a good coach and it appears they’ll be better this year. I like the Spartans outright in this one, so I’ll take the points.
Pick: Michigan State +3
TRENDS:
- Fighting Irish are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a bye week.
- Fighting Irish are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Fighting Irish are 9-23 ATS in their last 32 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Fighting Irish are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games on grass.
- Fighting Irish are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Fighting Irish are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Fighting Irish are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Fighting Irish are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
- Fighting Irish are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win.
- Fighting Irish are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. Big Ten.
- Spartans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games.
- Spartans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
- Spartans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
- Spartans are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Spartans are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up win.
- Spartans are 35-15-2 ATS in their last 52 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Spartans are 34-15-2 ATS in their last 51 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Spartans are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Spartans are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.
- Spartans are 2-5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Spartans are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. INDEP.
- Under is 4-0 in Fighting Irish last 4 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 5-1 in Fighting Irish last 6 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Fighting Irish last 5 games overall.
- Over is 4-1 in Fighting Irish last 5 non-conference games.
- Over is 4-1 in Fighting Irish last 5 games in September.
- Over is 4-1 in Fighting Irish last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Under is 17-5-1 in Fighting Irish last 23 games following a bye week.
- Over is 6-2 in Fighting Irish last 8 road games.
- Under is 6-2 in Fighting Irish last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-2 in Fighting Irish last 7 games on grass.
- Under is 11-5 in Fighting Irish last 16 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Under is 35-17-1 in Fighting Irish last 53 games following a straight up win.
- Under is 4-0 in Spartans last 4 home games.
- Over is 6-1 in Spartans last 7 games following a bye week.
- Under is 6-1 in Spartans last 7 non-conference games.
- Under is 5-1 in Spartans last 6 games following a straight up win.
- Under is 5-1 in Spartans last 6 games in September.
- Under is 4-1 in Spartans last 5 games overall.
- Over is 4-1 in Spartans last 5 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Spartans last 5 games on grass.
- Under is 4-1 in Spartans last 5 vs. INDEP.
- Under is 6-2 in Spartans last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 11-4 in Spartans last 15 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 5-2 in Spartans last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Over is 12-5 in Spartans last 17 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Fighting Irish are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Michigan State.
- Road team is 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 meetings.
- Underdog is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
- Fighting Irish are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
