NC State (13-5) at Virginia (12-5)
When: Monday, January 20th, 2020
Where: John Paul Jones Arena,
Charlottesville, Virginia
Time: 7:00 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Virginia -2.5/119.5
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The Virginia Cavaliers look to find some offense when they return home for a key conference matchup with the North Carolina State Wolfpack on Monday night. The Cavaliers have the No. 1 defense in the country at 49.5 points a game and rank second in defensive field goal percentage (35.7), but have had an awful time scoring points. The defending national champions snapped a three-game losing streak on Saturday with a 63-58 victory at Georgia Tech. Virginia lost two road games by a combined 11 points and an overtime contest at home against Syracuse prior to the triumph over the Yellow Jackets. North Carolina State will begin a stretch in which it plays five of the next seven on the road after earning two straight victories at home. The Wolfpack are tied with Virginia at 4-3 in ACC play after a 60-54 win over Clemson on Saturday. Virginia has dominated the series of late, winning the last eight meetings and the Wolfpack have managed to cover the spread in only three of those.
N.C. State could be coming into this contest shorthanded with freshman forward Manny Bates (ACC-leading 2.9 blocks) suffering a head injury on Saturday and reserve forward Pat Andree (6.5 points) also leaving the game with an undisclosed injury. The Wolfpack received basically nothing from their bench on Saturday, with four players scoring a combined eight points. Leading scorer CJ Bryce (15.0 points) is averaging 8.5 points in two games since returning from a concussion and has totaled 11 rebounds in the wins over Miami and Clemson. Senior point guard Markell Johnson is second in the ACC with 6.7 assists per game, while averaging 13.1 points. N.C. State will host Georgia Tech later this week.
While Virginia can lock-down opponents on the defensive end, the offense can barely score enough to win games. The Cavaliers score just 55.8 points a game (351st) and shoot an abysmal 26.7 percent from three-point territory. Sophomore point guard Kihei Clark turned the ball over nine times in the loss to Florida State but rebounded with a seven-assist night versus Georgia Tech on Saturday. The team has just two players averaging double-digits in scoring led by senior forward Mamadi Diakite (13.4) and 6’8″ guard Braxton Key (10.4), who also leads the team in rebounding (7.1). Virginia travels to Wake Forest on Sunday to take on the Demon Deacons.
It’s really hard to lay points with this Virginia team, but I just don’t see how N.C. State can find enough offense. In the last eight meetings, the Wolfpack have scored more than 56 points just once and have lost everyone of them.
Pick: Virginia -4
Wolfpack are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite.
Wolfpack are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss.
Wolfpack are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Wolfpack are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Wolfpack are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win.
Cavaliers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog.
Cavaliers are 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 Monday games.
Cavaliers are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games as an underdog.
Cavaliers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
Cavaliers are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games overall.
Cavaliers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Cavaliers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS win.
Cavaliers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Cavaliers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win.
Cavaliers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Under is 4-0 in Wolfpack last 4 overall.
Under is 5-0 in Wolfpack last 5 games as a favorite.
Under is 5-0 in Wolfpack last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Under is 5-1 in Wolfpack last 6 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 4-1 in Wolfpack last 5 games following a straight up win.
Over is 4-1 in Wolfpack last 5 games as a road favorite.
Under is 16-5 in Wolfpack last 21 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Over is 15-7 in Wolfpack last 22 road games.
Under is 5-1 in Cavaliers last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Over is 4-1 in Cavaliers last 5 Monday games.
Under is 4-1 in Cavaliers last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Under is 21-6 in Cavaliers last 27 games as a home underdog.
Under is 9-3 in Cavaliers last 12 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
Under is 20-7 in Cavaliers last 27 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Under is 37-14 in Cavaliers last 51 games as an underdog.
Over is 5-2 in Cavaliers last 7 overall.
Under is 5-2 in Cavaliers last 7 games following a ATS win.
Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
Home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
