Washington (52-45) at Atlanta (59-41)
When: Sunday, July 21st, 2019
Where: SunTrust Park,
Cumberland, GA
Time: 7:05 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: OFF
The Washington Nationals came into this weekend’s key four-game series with the Atlanta Braves just 6.5 games back in the National League East and have a chance to pull within 4.5 games with a win in the series finale on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball. Of course, a loss would put them right back where they started on Thursday, but the Nats have been playing really good baseball over the last two months after a terrible start. After Saturday’s 5-3 win, the Nats are 33-14 since May 24th and recently surpassed the Phillies for second place in the division, while holding down the top NL Wild Card spot. Trea Turner went 2-for-5 with a double and scored twice, raising his average lifetime against the Braves to .348 in 58 career games, while Adam Eaton went 3-for-5 with three runs scored and two RBI. The Braves finished 1-for-9 with runners in scoring position and left 10 runners on base, losing for the fourth time in their past five games. Center fielder Ronald Acuna Jr. became the first Atlanta player since Jason Heyward in 2012 to reach 20 homers and 20 stolen bases in the same season and extended his on-base streak to 26 games. He went 2-for-4 with a walk and a run scored and stole two bases – his sixth and seventh swipes in the past five games. Washington leads the season series 5-3 and have won five of their past six games in Atlanta dating to last season. They will meet again for a three-game set in Washington at the end of the month.
Pitchers: Nationals – Joe Ross (0-1, 11.05 ERA) | Braves – Kevin Gausman (2-5, 6.21)
Washington was expected to go with Austin Voth in the place of the injured Max Scherzer (inflamed bursa sac below his right shoulder), but Voth is dealing with tenderness in his shoulder and the Nats will give the ball to Joe Ross, who they flew in from Triple-A Fresno Saturday. Ross made 48 career starts for the Nationals from 2015-18, but all 17 of his appearances this season have come out of the bullpen where he owns an 11.05 ERA in 14.2 innings. He has made five career starts against Atlanta, allowing three runs or more in four of them.
10 CENT MLB LINES & 1% CASH BACK
Kevin Gausman makes his first start since June 10th when he landed on the injured list with right plantar fasciitis. After helping lead Atlanta to an NL East title in 2018 by posting a 2.87 ERA in 10 starts after being acquired from Baltimore at last season’s trade deadline, he allowed four runs or more in seven of his 13 starts to begin this season. Gausman gave up one unearned run in six innings at Double-A Mississippi on July 11th and struck out 10 over seven innings for Triple-A Gwinnett in his rehab stints.
The Nationals are playing a little better than the Braves right now, but I’m giving the edge to Gausman over Ross here. Ross has been really bad out of the bullpen and probably won’t go too deep in this. He’s also not had great success against Atlanta. The Braves really need this one or the Nats will be right on their heels.
Check out who Bobby Babowski has on his Free MLB Picks page for Sunday. He is 96-64 +2183 units on the season after an 10-3 run!
Pick: Braves -147
10 CENT MLB LINES & 1% CASH BACK
BETTING TRENDS:
Nationals are 6-1 in their last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Nationals are 13-3 in their last 16 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Nationals are 6-2 in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Nationals are 6-2 in their last 8 Sunday games.
Nationals are 24-8 in their last 32 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Nationals are 20-7 in their last 27 overall.
Nationals are 20-7 in their last 27 games on grass.
Nationals are 19-7 in their last 26 vs. National League East.
Nationals are 13-5 in their last 18 road games.
Nationals are 7-3 in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Nationals are 9-4 in their last 13 vs. a team with a winning record.
Nationals are 9-4 in their last 13 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Nationals are 13-6 in their last 19 games following a win.
Nationals are 8-3 in Ross’ last 11 starts vs. National League East.
Nationals are 13-6 in Ross’ last 19 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Nationals are 1-4 in Ross’ last 5 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Braves are 4-1 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Braves are 9-3 in their last 12 games following a loss.
Braves are 22-8 in their last 30 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Braves are 20-8 in their last 28 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Braves are 5-2 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Braves are 15-6 in their last 21 home games.
Braves are 36-15 in their last 51 Sunday games.
Braves are 7-3 in their last 10 during game 4 of a series.
Braves are 11-5 in their last 16 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Braves are 21-10 in their last 31 vs. National League East.
Braves are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Braves are 1-4 in their last 5 overall.
Braves are 1-4 in their last 5 games on grass.
Braves are 0-4 in their last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Braves are 4-1 in Gausman’s last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Braves are 9-3 in Gausman’s last 12 home starts.
Braves are 2-6 in Gausman’s last 8 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 4-0 in Nationals last 4 Sunday games.
Under is 4-0 in Nationals last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 6-0 in Nationals last 6 games following a win.
Under is 8-1 in Nationals last 9 road games.
Under is 8-1 in Nationals last 9 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 8-1 in Nationals last 9 vs. National League East.
Under is 7-1-1 in Nationals last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 6-1 in Nationals last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Under is 6-1 in Nationals last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 5-1 in Nationals last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Under is 13-3 in Nationals last 16 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 18-7-1 in Nationals last 26 overall.
Under is 18-7-1 in Nationals last 26 on grass.
Under is 5-2 in Nationals last 7 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 7-3-2 in Nationals last 12 during game 4 of a series.
Under is 4-1 in Ross’ last 5 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 14-5-1 in Ross’ last 20 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 5-2 in Ross’ last 7 starts vs. National League East.
Under is 10-4-1 in Ross’ last 15 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 11-0 in Braves last 11 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 6-0 in Braves last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Under is 9-1-1 in Braves last 11 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 6-1-1 in Braves last 8 games following a loss.
Over is 5-1-1 in Braves last 7 during game 4 of a series.
Under is 4-1-1 in Braves last 6 home games.
Under is 4-1-1 in Braves last 6 vs. National League East.
Under is 7-2 in Braves last 9 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 8-3-1 in Braves last 12 overall.
Under is 8-3-1 in Braves last 12 on grass.
Over is 13-5-1 in Braves last 19 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 9-4 in Braves last 13 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 4-0 in Gausman’s last 4 starts on grass.
Over is 4-0 in Gausman’s last 4 starts overall.
Over is 6-1 in Gausman’s last 7 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 5-1-2 in Gausman’s last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 3-1-1 in Gausman’s last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 3-1-1 in Gausman’s last 5 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Nationals are 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Atlanta.
Nationals are 4-1 in Ross’ last 5 starts vs. Braves.
Over is 4-1 in Ross’ last 5 starts vs. Braves.
Nationals are 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
