Washington (32-22) at Atlanta (32-23)
When: Thursday, May 31st 2018
Where: SunTrust Park, Cumberland, GA
Time: 7:35 ET | TV: MASN2, FS Southeast
Opening Odds: Atlanta -106/9
It took two full months, but the Washington Nationals are finally back atop the National League East standings – as predicted by just about everyone out there. They look to extend their lead when they visit the second-place Atlanta Braves in the opener of a key four-game series Thursday night at SunTrust Park. The Braves, who are way ahead of schedule in their rebuilding process, are only a half-game behind the Nationals and are coming off a 4-1 setback to the New York Mets on Wednesday, with the lone run coming on a Johan Camargo homer in the seventh. It was Atlanta’s 101st run of the season scored in the seventh inning or later, which leads the National League. The Braves split the four-game series with New York and won the two games in walk-off fashion, and have won eight games this season in their final at-bat. The Nationals stumbled out of the gate, going 11-16 in April while posting a -4 run differential, but Washington has turned things around in May and comes to Atlanta on a six-game winning streak after Wednesday’s 2-0 victory at Baltimore. Washington is 19-6 this month and has allowed just 2.7 runs per game. Superstar slugger Bryce Harper is hitting just .238 on the season but blasted his NL-leading 18th homer Wednesday. Braves star first baseman Freddie Freeman extended his hitting streak to 12 games with two hits Wednesday, and is batting .388 during his streak. Atlanta and Washington have split their first six meetings of the season, with the Braves outscoring the Nationals 27-24.
Pitchers: Nationals – Tanner Roark (2-4, 3.17 ERA) | Braves – Sean Newcomb (5-1, 2.75)
Tanner Roark made his season debut on April 2nd against Atlanta and bested them, holding the Braves to just one run on four hits with six strikeouts in seven innings to improve to 7-3 with a 2.77 ERA lifetime against their division-foes. Roark has had some tough luck this season, posting a 3.39 ERA and limiting opponents to a .202 average in his nine starts since the Atlanta game, but is just 1-4 in that stretch. Roark has a 2.14 ERA in this last three outings with 17 strikeouts in 21 innings.
Sean Newcomb was having a player of the month type start to May before struggling Saturday at Boston, giving up three runs with four walks while throwing 88 pitches in just three innings. Newcomb won his first four starts of the month while posting a 0.36 ERA and a .110 opponents batting average. He opened his season April 2nd opposite Roark and took the loss, allowing five earned runs in 4.1 innings.
I’ve been impressed with this Braves team all season as they have the hitting and pitching working right now. I like Newcomb in this matchup since he’s been better than Roark this season and the Braves are at home and have been anticipating this matchup for a month and a half. It should be the series to watch this weekend.
Pick: Braves -118
BETTING TRENDS:
- Nationals are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. National League East.
- Nationals are 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Nationals are 7-1 in their last 8 during game 1 of a series.
- Nationals are 20-6 in their last 26 overall.
- Nationals are 20-6 in their last 26 games on grass.
- Nationals are 16-5 in their last 21 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Nationals are 20-8 in their last 28 road games.
- Nationals are 43-19 in their last 62 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Nationals are 6-1 in Roark’s last 7 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Nationals are 4-1 in Roark’s last 5 Thursday starts.
- Nationals are 6-2 in Roark’s last 8 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Nationals are 2-5 in Roark’s last 7 starts vs. National League East.
- Nationals are 2-7 in Roark’s last 9 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Nationals are 2-8 in Roark’s last 10 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Braves are 5-0 in their last 5 Thursday games.
- Braves are 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Braves are 4-1 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
- Braves are 4-1 in their last 5 home games.
- Braves are 13-5 in their last 18 vs. National League East.
- Braves are 5-1 in Newcomb’s last 6 starts.
- Braves are 4-1 in Newcomb’s last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Braves are 4-1 in Newcomb’s last 5 starts on grass.
- Braves are 6-2 in Newcomb’s last 8 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Braves are 2-5 in Newcomb’s last 7 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Braves are 3-10 in Newcomb’s last 13 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Braves are 0-6 in Newcomb’s last 6 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0 in Nationals last 4 overall.
- Under is 4-0 in Nationals last 4 on grass.
- Under is 9-3-3 in Nationals last 15 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 6-2-2 in Nationals last 10 Thursday games.
- Under is 9-3 in Nationals last 12 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 15-5-6 in Nationals last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Under is 32-14-6 in Nationals last 52 road games.
- Under is 32-15-5 in Nationals last 52 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 31-15-6 in Nationals last 52 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 5-0 in Roark’s last 5 Thursday starts.
- Under is 9-1-2 in Roark’s last 12 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 14-3 in Roark’s last 17 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Under is 4-1 in Roark’s last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Under is 8-2-1 in Roark’s last 11 road starts.
- Under is 20-5-2 in Roark’s last 27 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 18-6-2 in Roark’s last 26 starts on grass.
- Under is 18-6-2 in Roark’s last 26 starts overall.
- Under is 15-5-1 in Roark’s last 21 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 5-0 in Braves last 5 Thursday games.
- Under is 4-0 in Braves last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 4-0 in Braves last 4 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 4-1 in Braves last 5 overall.
- Under is 4-1 in Braves last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 4-1 in Braves last 5 on grass.
- Under is 4-1 in Braves last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-1 in Braves last 5 home games.
- Over is 3-1-2 in Braves last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
- Under is 12-5-1 in Braves last 18 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Under is 7-3 in Braves last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-0 in Newcomb’s last 4 Thursday starts.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Newcomb’s last 4 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Newcomb’s last 4 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 8-2 in Newcomb’s last 10 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Over is 5-2 in Newcomb’s last 7 starts on grass.
- Under is 5-2-1 in Newcomb’s last 8 starts vs. National League East.
- Under is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings.
- Under is 4-1-1 in Roark’s last 6 road starts vs. Braves.
- Nationals are 9-3 in Roark’s last 12 starts vs. Braves.
- Under is 8-3-1 in Roark’s last 12 starts vs. Braves.
- Nationals are 42-20 in the last 62 meetings.
