Michigan (5-1) at Penn State (6-0)
When: Saturday, October 19th 2019
Where: Beaver Stadium,
State College, PA
Time: 7:30 ET | TV: ABC
Opening Odds: Penn State -7.5/45
People seemed to have given up on the Michigan Wolverines, especially after they were dominated at Wisconsin last month, but they still control their own destiny in the Big Ten East and can make a statement this Saturday night. The 5-1 Wolverines travel to State College to take on the seventh-ranked Penn State Nittany Lions, where ESPN GameDay will setup shop in anticipation of this key matchup. Michigan has bounced back from that Wisconsin loss by winning their last three including a 42-25 triumph at Illinois last week, but they’ll be hard-pressed to come close to the 295 rushing yards they recorded against the Illini. The Wolverines defense has limited some of the worst offenses in the conference, but they will be tested against a Penn State team averaging 42 points a contest. The Nittany Lions are 6-0 for the second time in three years after a hard-fought 17-12 win at then-No. 18 Iowa last week and will come home in front of their annual ‘White-Out’ game this Saturday. They hosted Michigan two years ago in a White-Out and throttled the Wolverines 42-13 behind Trace McSorley and Saquon Barkley. Michigan has won four of the last five meetings and the home team has covered six of the last seven.
After limiting Rutgers and Iowa to three total points in back-to-back weeks, the Wolverines defense let up a bit against Illinois, but are still ranked 15th in FBS in points allowed (17.5) and ninth against the pass (160.5). Senior linebacker Jordan Glasgow leads the unit with 47 tackles and four sacks, while junior lineman Kwity Paye tops the team with 4.5 sacks, but is questionable after missing last week. Quarterback Shea Patterson threw for 194 yards and three touchdowns against the Fighting Illini, while Hassan Haskins led the ground game with a personal-best 125 yards. True freshman Zach Charbonnet recorded 116 and leads the team with 376 yards rushing, but Michigan still ranks 80th in the country at 156.8 per game. The Wolverines will host Notre Dame next week.
Penn State got through the easy part of their schedule and passed their first big test with Iowa last week, but up next is Michigan, Michigan State, 6-0 Minnesota and eventually Ohio State. Noah Cain seems to have taken over as the primary running back with back-to-back 100-yard games and scored the decisive fourth-quarter touchdown at Iowa. Sophomore quarterback Sean Clifford completed just 12 passes for 117 yards against Iowa, but ran for over 50 yards for the fourth time this year. The defense has been dominant, ranking fourth in the country in total yards allowed (259.7), third against the run (53.8) and second in points (8.2).
The Michigan offensive line is not going to be able to slow down this Penn State defensive attack, which could make this game another blowout in the series. The home team has won by at least 29 points in the last three meetings and I can see a similar outcome here.
Pick: Penn State -9 (More Week 8 Free Picks)
Betting Trends:
Wolverines are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in October.
Wolverines are 19-40-2 ATS in their last 61 road games.
Wolverines are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 conference games.
Wolverines are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Wolverines are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Wolverines are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
Wolverines are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
Wolverines are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Wolverines are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.
Wolverines are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Wolverines are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Wolverines are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Wolverines are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
Nittany Lions are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Nittany Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Nittany Lions are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Nittany Lions are 25-7-1 ATS in their last 33 games following a straight up win.
Nittany Lions are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Nittany Lions are 18-6-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Nittany Lions are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games in October.
Nittany Lions are 20-7-2 ATS in their last 29 games on grass.
Nittany Lions are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Nittany Lions are 17-7-2 ATS in their last 26 home games.
Nittany Lions are 28-12-2 ATS in their last 42 games overall.
Nittany Lions are 20-9-1 ATS in their last 30 conference games.
Nittany Lions are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
Nittany Lions are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
Over is 4-0 in Wolverines last 4 road games.
Over is 13-3 in Wolverines last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Over is 4-1 in Wolverines last 5 conference games.
Over is 6-2 in Wolverines last 8 games in October.
Over is 27-9-1 in Wolverines last 37 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 6-2 in Wolverines last 8 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 19-7 in Wolverines last 26 games following a ATS loss.
Over is 8-3 in Wolverines last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 36-16-1 in Wolverines last 53 games overall.
Under is 4-0 in Nittany Lions last 4 games overall.
Under is 4-0 in Nittany Lions last 4 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Under is 4-0 in Nittany Lions last 4 games following a straight up win.
Under is 6-0 in Nittany Lions last 6 conference games.
Over is 4-1 in Nittany Lions last 5 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Nittany Lions last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Over is 11-5 in Nittany Lions last 16 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Penn State.
Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
Favorite is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Home team is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
Wolverines are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Wolverines are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Penn State.
