Seattle (37-22) at Houston (37-24)
When: Tuesday, June 5th 2018
Where: Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX
Time: 8:10 ET | TV: ROOT Northwest, SportsNet Southwest
Opening Odds: Houston -135/7.5
The defending World Series champion Houston Astros got the better of the Seattle Mariners the first time the teams met this season, but its the surging M’s that have overtaken Houston atop the American League West standings. The clubs will begin a brief two-game series at Minute Maid Park on Tuesday night with lefties James Paxton going up against Dallas Keuchel. The Astros outscored the Mariners 21-6 while winning three of four in Seattle from April 16-19. We fast forward to June, and Seattle holds a one-game lead over Houston after winning 13 of its last 16 games, while the Astros have dropped six of their last nine. The Mariners have won four in a row to overtake Houston and stand a season-high 15 games above .500. Paxton, who went 3-0 with a 1.67 ERA in May (including a no-hitter), starts in the opener for the Mariners against Keuchel, who is winless in three starts. The Astros have allowed 49 runs during their 3-6 stretch – giving up at least five in all six defeats – but still lead the majors with a 2.82 ERA. Jose Altuve is just 2-for-12 this month after going 17-for-31 over his last seven games in May. Mariners DH Nelson Cruz, who is batting .333 with four homers in 33 career at-bats against Keuchel, is 11-for-27 with two HRs and eight RBIs over his last seven games.
Pitchers: Mariners – James Paxton (4-1, 3.13 ERA) | Astros – Dallas Keuchel (3-7, 3.65)
Not only did Paxton’s month of May included a no-hitter, but he also recorded a 16-strikeout effort against Oakland as he K’d 51 batters and allowed just 21 hits over 43 innings. Paxton has given up three runs or less in nine of his 12 starts and is holding opponents to a .190 batting average. He outdueled Keuchel on April 16th, when he allowed one run and three hits over six innings to improve to 4-3 with a 3.16 ERA in nine career outings against Houston.
Keuchel is looking to get back on track after allowing 10 runs on 21 hits and six walks in 16 innings while losing two of his last three starts. Keuchel is just 1-3 with a 4.06 ERA at Minute Maid Park this season, well off his career numbers of 37-24, 3.01 ERA. He allowed two runs and six hits over eight innings in the April 16th loss to Seattle and is 8-6 with a 2.67 ERA in 16 career appearances (15 starts) against the Mariners.
I really like Seattle in this one. Paxton has emerged as the true ace of this staff over Felix Hernandez. I expect a close, low-scoring game and the Mariners have been winning most of those type of contests this season.
Pick: Mariners +115
BETTING TRENDS:
- Mariners are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 1 of a series.
- Mariners are 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Mariners are 6-1 in their last 7 games following a win.
- Mariners are 5-1 in their last 6 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Mariners are 5-1 in their last 6 Tuesday games.
- Mariners are 13-3 in their last 16 overall.
- Mariners are 13-3 in their last 16 games on grass.
- Mariners are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Mariners are 4-1 in their last 5 games following an off day.
- Mariners are 8-2 in their last 10 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Mariners are 9-3 in their last 12 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Mariners are 11-5 in their last 16 road games.
- Mariners are 1-4 in their last 5 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Mariners are 4-0 in Paxton’s last 4 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Mariners are 7-1 in Paxton’s last 8 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Mariners are 9-2 in Paxton’s last 11 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Mariners are 4-1 in Paxton’s last 5 road starts.
- Mariners are 4-1 in Paxton’s last 5 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Mariners are 6-2 in Paxton’s last 8 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Mariners are 8-3 in Paxton’s last 11 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Mariners are 7-3 in Paxton’s last 10 starts.
- Astros are 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Astros are 4-1 in their last 5 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Astros are 26-10 in their last 36 vs. American League West.
- Astros are 18-7 in their last 25 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Astros are 10-4 in their last 14 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Astros are 37-16 in their last 53 home games.
- Astros are 47-22 in their last 69 during game 1 of a series.
- Astros are 21-8 in Keuchel’s last 29 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Astros are 10-4 in Keuchel’s last 14 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Astros are 37-16 in Keuchel’s last 53 home starts.
- Astros are 18-8 in Keuchel’s last 26 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Astros are 37-18 in Keuchel’s last 55 starts vs. American League West.
- Astros are 2-6 in Keuchel’s last 8 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Astros are 3-9 in Keuchel’s last 12 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Astros are 1-4 in Keuchel’s last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 road games.
- Under is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 10-1 in Mariners last 11 games following a win.
- Under is 12-2 in Mariners last 14 overall.
- Under is 12-2 in Mariners last 14 on grass.
- Under is 13-3 in Mariners last 16 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Mariners last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Mariners last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 6-2 in Mariners last 8 vs. American League West.
- Under is 21-8 in Mariners last 29 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 10-4-2 in Mariners last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 53-23-4 in Mariners last 80 Tuesday games.
- Under is 8-1 in Paxton’s last 9 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Under is 8-1 in Paxton’s last 9 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 7-1 in Paxton’s last 8 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 5-1-1 in Paxton’s last 7 Tuesday starts.
- Under is 5-1 in Paxton’s last 6 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 5-1 in Paxton’s last 6 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Paxton’s last 5 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Over is 4-1 in Paxton’s last 5 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 3-1-1 in Paxton’s last 5 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 8-3-2 in Paxton’s last 13 road starts.
- Over is 5-2 in Paxton’s last 7 starts on grass.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Astros last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Over is 5-0 in Astros last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 7-0-1 in Astros last 8 vs. American League West.
- Under is 7-1-2 in Astros last 10 games following an off day.
- Over is 8-2-1 in Astros last 11 overall.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Astros last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
- Over is 8-2-1 in Astros last 11 on grass.
- Over is 4-1 in Astros last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
- Over is 4-1 in Astros last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 4-1-1 in Astros last 6 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 19-7-1 in Astros last 27 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 8-3-1 in Astros last 12 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1-1 in Keuchel’s last 6 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Keuchel’s last 6 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 7-2-1 in Keuchel’s last 10 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 3-1-1 in Keuchel’s last 5 starts on grass.
- Over is 3-1-1 in Keuchel’s last 5 starts overall.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Keuchel’s last 5 home starts.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Keuchel’s last 5 starts vs. American League West.
- Under is 11-4-2 in Keuchel’s last 17 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 11-5-1 in Keuchel’s last 17 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0 in Paxton’s last 4 starts vs. Astros.
- Astros are 5-1 in Keuchel’s last 6 home starts vs. Mariners.
- Under is 5-1 in Keuchel’s last 6 starts vs. Mariners.
- Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Houston.
- Astros are 4-1 in Keuchel’s last 5 starts vs. Mariners.
- Under is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings.
- Mariners are 10-26 in the last 36 meetings.
- Mariners are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings in Houston.
