LSU (8-0) at Alabama (8-0)
When: Saturday, November 9th 2019
Where: Bryant-Denny Stadium,
Tuscaloosa, AL
Time: 3:30 ET | TV: CBS
Opening Odds: Alabama -6/63
The first College Football Playoff rankings came out earlier this week, and for many teams, things just got real. These are the rankings that really matter and only the top four earn a chance to play the last game of the season in January. Teams, coaches, and fans shouldn’t overreact, however, as there are many games left to be played and all you can do is just keep winning and things will work out – in theory. Ohio State grabbed the top spot in the initial rankings, but they’ll probably drop after No. 2 plays No. 3 this Saturday in Tuscaloosa, as the Alabama Crimson Tide host the LSU Tigers in a big SEC showdown. The big question this week is the availability of Bama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (ankle) playing in this contest, and head coach Nick Saban said there was “a good chance” the junior quarterback, who underwent surgery on Oct. 19, will be under center. Tagovailoa – a Heisman Trophy candidate – has passed for 2,166 yards, 27 touchdowns and two interceptions on the season. LSU has a Heisman contender of their own in senior quarterback Joe Burrow, who has thrown for 2,805 yards, 30 touchdowns and four interceptions in revitalizing the Tigers offense. LSU has lost eight straight meetings with Alabama, have scored 17 points or less in nine straight, and have only put up 10 total points in the last three encounters. The road team has covered the spread in four of the last five meetings.
With all the talk surrounding LSU’s offensive firepower, the defense in Baton Rouge is still pretty solid, ranking 23rd overall (316.5 yards per game), 23rd in scoring (20.0) and 14th against the run (99.0). The unit is led by freshman cornerback Derek Stingley Jr., who has a team-best four interceptions, and junior linebacker Jacob Phillips (team-high 64 tackles). The offense is averaging 46.8 points per game (fourth in FBS) and Burrow has completed more than 70 percent of his passes in each game and thrown four or more touchdown passes five times. He has plenty of weapons to throw to including junior Justin Jefferson (55 receptions, 819 yards and nine scores), sophomore Ja’Marr Chase (43 for 749, nine TDs) and sophomore Terrace Marshall Jr. (22 for 333, seven). LSU will wrap-up their road schedule next week at Ole Miss.
Alabama’s defense has been slightly better than LSU’s, ranking ninth in points allowed (15.2) and 16th overall (307.9). Junior safety Xavier McKinney (team-high 56 tackles), senior linebacker Anfernee Jennings (48 tackles, four sacks) and junior linebacker Terrell Lewis (team-best six sacks) are the leaders of a unit that has surrendered less points than any other SEC team other than Georgia. Backup quarterback Mac Jones filled in for Tagovailoa two weeks ago against a poor Arkansas team and completed 18-of-22 passes for 235 yards and two touchdowns. The wide receiving unit is one of the best in the country with Jerry Jeudy (52 receptions, 682 yards, eight TDs) and DeVonta Smith (43, 721, nine) leading the way. Running back Najee Harris leads the rushing attack with 642 yards and five scores. Alabama will be at Mississippi State next week.
I can’t wait to watch this game. A lot will be on the line and the two teams, I believe, are pretty equal. The road team has covered four of the past five meetings and the Tigers are a perfect 5-0 ATS away from home dating back to last season. I expect this game to be decided by around three points, so I’ll take the underdog here.
Pick: LSU +6 (More Week 11 Free Picks)
Betting Trends:
Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Tigers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Tigers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS loss.
Tigers are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Tigers are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 conference games.
Tigers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Tigers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Crimson Tide are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a bye week.
Crimson Tide are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win.
Crimson Tide are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Crimson Tide are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Crimson Tide are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Crimson Tide are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
Crimson Tide are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Over is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 3-0-1 in Tigers last 4 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Tigers last 5 road games.
Over is 4-1 in Tigers last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Under is 15-5-1 in Tigers last 21 games in November.
Over is 8-3 in Tigers last 11 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 7-3-1 in Tigers last 11 games overall.
Under is 4-0 in Crimson Tide last 4 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 8-1 in Crimson Tide last 9 games following a bye week.
Over is 8-1-1 in Crimson Tide last 10 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 5-1 in Crimson Tide last 6 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Crimson Tide last 5 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 6-2-1 in Crimson Tide last 9 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
Over is 3-1-1 in Crimson Tide last 5 games following a ATS win.
Over is 6-2-1 in Crimson Tide last 9 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Under is 20-8-1 in Crimson Tide last 29 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Under is 7-3 in Crimson Tide last 10 games in November.
Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.
Favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Tigers are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Alabama.
Tigers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
