Louisville (4-1, 1-1) at North Carolina State (4-1, 2-0)
When: Thursday, October 5th 2017
Where: Carter-Finley Stadium, Raleigh, NC
Time: 8:00 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Louisville -3.5/62
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The North Carolina State Wolfpack look for their fifth straight victory when they host the Louisville Cardinals on Thursday night in Raleigh. The Wolfpack knocked off then No. 12 Florida State two weeks ago and will vie for their first 3-0 conference start since 2002. NC State followed their upset of the Seminoles with a 33-25 win over Syracuse last week and gave them their first 2-0 start in the ACC since 2006, leaving them as only one of two schools (Clemson) without a setback in the ACC’s Atlantic Division. They will also have revenge on their minds as the Cardinals humiliated the ‘Pack 54-13 last season as Louisville raced out to a 44-0 halftime advantage. The Cardinals have outscored a pair of inferior opponents (Kent State and FCS foe Murray State) 97-13 since their demoralizing 47-21 loss to No. 2 Clemson on September 16th and have won six of the seven meetings versus N.C. State, including all three since joining the ACC. The Cardinals allowed a combined 230 yards to Kent State and Murray State, the lowest two-game total allowed by Louisville since 1960.
Reigning Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson, who is 13 yards away from becoming the seventh player in conference history to reach 10,000 total career yards, posted his 16th 100-yard rushing game while also breaking Chris Redman’s school mark (538) for career scoring (554) last week. Wide receiver Dez Fitzpatrick is Jackson’s top target and finished with two touchdowns on four catches against Murray State. Fitzpatrick has scored six times on only 16 receptions, leaving him one TD catch shy of Arnold Jackson (1997) and Mario Urrutia (2005) for the most by a freshman receiver in Louisville history. Preseason All-American cornerback Jaire Alexander, who suffered a knee injury in the season opener, practiced last week and is day-to-day, according to coach Bobby Petrino. Louisville has been good against the run, ranking 20th in the country at 104.6 yards a contest.
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Quarterback Ryan Finley owns the longest active streak of consecutive attempts without an interception at 257 and ranks 23rd in the nation in passing yards per game (280.6) and ninth in FBS in completion percentage (71.9). Former track All-American Nyheim Hines, has been used as a flex player in the past but is now the main running option this season. He ranks fifth in the conference in rushing (411 yards) after setting a career high in rushing yards in each of the last three weeks. Defensive end Bradley Chubb leads the conference with league-best 12 tackles for loss after 3.5 last week against Syracuse, increasing his career total to 46 and moving him into second place in school history behind the great Mario Williams (55.5). The Wolfpack are even better than Louisville at stopping the run, ranking seventh in the nation (85.6).
WEEK 6 COLLEGE FOOTBALL FREE PICKS
I really like NC State’s defense right now, especially against the run. Louisville is basically a one-man show and if the Wolfpack can slow down Jackson, they’ll do enough on offense to win this game. These weeknight games tend to favor the home team, so I’ll stick with that trend here.
Pick: NC State +3.5
- Cardinals are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
- Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Cardinals are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.
- Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Cardinals are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games in October.
- Cardinals are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
- Cardinals are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Cardinals are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Cardinals are 0-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Cardinals are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Cardinals are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Cardinals are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Wolfpack are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.
- Wolfpack are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Wolfpack are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Wolfpack are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
- Wolfpack are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
- Wolfpack are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games.
- Over is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 10-3 in Cardinals last 13 conference games.
- Over is 12-4 in Cardinals last 16 games following a straight up win.
- Under is 18-7-1 in Cardinals last 26 games in October.
- Over is 5-2 in Cardinals last 7 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 5-2 in Cardinals last 7 games on grass.
- Over is 7-3 in Cardinals last 10 road games.
- Under is 14-6 in Cardinals last 20 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Over is 7-3 in Cardinals last 10 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Under is 17-8-1 in Cardinals last 26 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 7-0 in Wolfpack last 7 conference games.
- Under is 16-1-1 in Wolfpack last 18 Thursday games.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Wolfpack last 8 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Wolfpack last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Wolfpack last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 18-7 in Wolfpack last 25 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Under is 5-2 in Wolfpack last 7 games following a straight up win.
- Under is 13-6-1 in Wolfpack last 20 games in October.
- Over is 15-7-1 in Wolfpack last 23 games following a ATS loss.
