Kentucky vs Mississippi St Trends and Free Pick [2/21/2012]

Kentucky (26-1, 12-0) at Mississippi State (19-8, 6-6)
When: Tuesday, February 21st, 2012
Where: Humphrey Coliseum, Starkville, MS
Time: 9:00 ET

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The point spread for Tuesday’s SEC battle between the #1 ranked Kentucky Wildcats and Mississippi State Bulldogs opened up at -10.5 in favor of the Wildcats at Bovada Sportsbook and the total was set at 139.5. As of Tuesday morning the line was bet down to -9.5 and the total has not moved. So far, 51% of the betting public is on Kentucky and 51% are on the over. Here are the latest trends for this game:

Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Wildcats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.

Bulldogs are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games.

Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.

Under is 3-0-1 in Wildcats last 4 games following a ATS loss.

Under is 10-1 in Wildcats last 11 road games.

Over is 5-1 in Bulldogs last 6 Tuesday games.

Over is 4-1 in Bulldogs last 5 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.

Wildcats are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings.

Underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.

My Prediction: The Wildcats bring their perfect SEC record into Starkville to face the Mississippi State Bulldogs. The Bulldogs have fallen on hard times the last week and a half losing 3 straight including a bad home loss to Georgia. They’ve also failed to cover in 6 of their last 7 games overall. Obviously Kentucky is the far superior team, but they still have to show up. Mississippi State is 15-2 at home this year and their fans will be jacked up for this one. There’s more pressure on teams that are trying to finish the season undefeated in conference play. I think this is a good spot for the Bulldogs to keep this one close.

Mississippi State +9.5

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