Purdue vs Saint Mary’s CA Trends and Free Pick [3/16/2012]

Purdue (21-12) vs Saint Mary’s CA (27-5)
When: Friday, March 16th, 2012
Where: Centurylink Center, Omaha, NE
Time: 7:25 ET
TV: truTV

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The point spread for Friday’s 2nd round battle between the Purdue Boilermakers and Saint Mary’s CA Gaels opened up at -2 in favor of the Boilermakers at Sportsbook on Selection Sunday and the total was set at 139. As of Thursday night the line has been been moved all the way to -1.5 in favor of Saint Mary’s and the total has inched up to 140. So far, 68% of the betting public is on the Gaels and 55% are on the under. Here are the latest trends for this game:

Boilermakers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss.

Boilermakers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5.

Gaels are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 neutral site games as a favorite.

Gaels are 33-15-1 ATS in their last 49 non-conference games.

Under is 6-1 in Boilermakers last 7 non-conference games.

Over is 6-1 in Boilermakers last 7 neutral site games.

Over is 5-1 in Gaels last 6 neutral site games as a favorite.

Over is 6-2-1 in Gaels last 9 Friday games.

My Prediction: Purdue’s Robbie Hummel is the type of player who can take over a tournament game like this, but his last 3 games have not gone well. He’s only averaging 10 points a game in those three and Purdue lost 2 of them. I really like teams that finished strong and win their Conference Tournament like Saint Mary’s did. The Gaels held off Gonzaga in the WCC Final and I just saw Gonzaga crush West Virginia. The Gaels have a very experienced team that plays well on the road and in neutral site games. Matthew Dellavedova will be the difference in this close game.

Saint Mary’s CA -1.5

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