Jacksonville (4-8) at Tennessee (6-6)
When: Thursday, December 6th 2018
Where: Nissan Stadium,
Nashville, Tennessee
Time: 8:20 ET | TV: FOX
Opening Odds: Tennessee -3.5/38
Two AFC South rivals will get the Week 14 schedule going when the Tennessee Titans host the Jacksonville Jaguars on Thursday Night Football from the Music City. The Jaguars have been one of the more disappointing teams in the entire league this season, going from the AFC Championship Game to a dismal 4-8 mark and have already changed their offensive coordinator and starting quarterback. Jacksonville snapped a seven-game losing streak with a 6-0 win over the Indianapolis Colts last week at home, finally showing off the dominant defense that almost got them to the Super Bowl last year. The offense, however, was held to just 211 yards and two field goals, as Cody Kessler won for the first time in nine career starts. He has stepped in for the benched Blake Bortles, who’s tenure in Jacksonville could be coming to an end. The Houston Texans pretty much have the AFC South wrapped-up but the Titans are still battling several teams for a possible Wild Card berth. At 6-6, Tennessee is tied with four teams, all of whom are one-game behind the Baltimore Ravens for the coveted spot. The Titans avoided disaster last week with a comeback win over the lowly New York Jets, scoring a touchdown with 36 seconds left to cap the 26-22 victory. Tennessee has won three straight meetings and five of six after a 9-6 win back in Week 3. The home team is 5-2-1 against the spread (ATS) in the past eight meetings.
The Week 3 setback to the Titans was Jacksonville’s only loss in September but that was without star running back Leonard Fournette, who also sat out Sunday’s victory while serving a one-game suspension. He will be back to help take some pressure off Kessler, who threw for 150 yards while completing 18-of-24 against Indianapolis. The running game managed only 79 yards in the absence of Fournette, who rushed for 190 yards and three touchdowns in his previous two games. The Jaguars, who held Tennessee to 233 yards of total offense in the first matchup, is ranked third overall, allowing 315.6 yards a game.
Marcus Mariota came off the bench to lift Tennessee over Jacksonville in Week 3 despite playing hurt and produced another comeback last week by leading the Titans to 13 points in the fourth quarter. Wide receiver Taywan Taylor returned from a three-game absence with three receptions for 104 yards last week – all in the fourth quarter. The offense is ranked just 28th in points scored at 18.4, but the defense has been the strong-suite this season, allowing a sixth-best 20.4 a contest, but have allowed 22 or more in three-straight.
I don’t know how the Jaguars won last week with just two field goals against a Colts team that was averaging 33 points a game in their previous eight. With short rest, I expect the Jacksonville offense to continue to struggle, while Mariota and company break this defense. Thursday night’s have been good to favorites, especially home team favorites. I’ll lay the points.
Pick: Titans -4
Betting Trends:
- Jaguars are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games in December.
- Jaguars are 8-17-1 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Jaguars are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Jaguars are 1-3-2 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC.
- Jaguars are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Jaguars are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC South.
- Jaguars are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
- Jaguars are 1-5-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
- Jaguars are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Jaguars are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 road games.
- Titans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
- Titans are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 home games.
- Titans are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. AFC South.
- Titans are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games on grass.
- Titans are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Titans are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Titans are 16-35-2 ATS in their last 53 games following a straight up win.
- Titans are 15-33-3 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
- Titans are 19-45-4 ATS in their last 68 vs. AFC.
- Titans are 8-20-2 ATS in their last 30 games in December.
- Titans are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Titans are 13-42-2 ATS in their last 57 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Titans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.
- Titans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 14.
- Under is 5-0 in Jaguars last 5 games on grass.
- Over is 5-1 in Jaguars last 6 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Under is 5-1 in Jaguars last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Jaguars last 5 games following a straight up win.
- Under is 4-1 in Jaguars last 5 vs. AFC South.
- Under is 4-1 in Jaguars last 5 games following a ATS win.
- Over is 4-1 in Jaguars last 5 games in Week 14.
- Under is 14-6 in Jaguars last 20 vs. AFC.
- Under is 4-0 in Titans last 4 games in Week 14.
- Under is 6-1 in Titans last 7 vs. AFC South.
- Under is 4-1 in Titans last 5 games following a straight up win.
- Over is 4-1 in Titans last 5 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Titans last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 7-2 in Titans last 9 vs. AFC.
- Over is 5-2 in Titans last 7 Thursday games.
- Over is 5-2 in Titans last 7 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 5-2 in Titans last 7 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 5-2 in Titans last 7 games on grass.
- Over is 39-18-3 in Titans last 60 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Favorite is 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
- Home team is 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
- Jaguars are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
