Illinois (2-0) at South Florida (2-0)
When: Friday, September 15th 2017
Where: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
Time: 7:00 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: South Florida -18.5/51
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The South Florida Bulls finally get back on the playing field and take on an Illinois Fighting Illini team that is off to a nice 2-0 start. The two undefeated teams will take the field at Raymond James Stadium on Friday night – a site familiar to Illini coach Lovie Smith, who used to coach the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Illinois knocked off Ball State and Western Kentucky while giving up a total of 28 points in their first two games with a young defense that will be tested against a South Florida team that has scored at least 30 points in 19 straight games. The Bulls had last week’s game at Connecticut cancelled due to complications with Hurricane Irma and haven’t been really sharp in its first two games. The Bulls did not practice over the weekend after the UConn game was canceled and will have to brush off some rust as they prepare for their second-to-last non-conference matchup of the season.
Three freshmen have started on defense for Smith’s squad, including linemen Bobby Roundtree (three sacks) and Isaiah Gay (one sack), while junior linebacker Del’Shawn Phillips leads the way with 22 tackles and a half-sack. Illinois has allowed just 28 points in two games including just seven to a Louisiana Tech team that scored a ton of points last season. Junior wide receiver Mike Dudek, who has missed the last two seasons after suffering two torn ACLs in his left knee, is off to a good start with eight catches for 93 yards and a score. Fellow wideout Malik Turner has seven receptions for 70 yards and has caught at least one pass in 22 straight games. Junior quarterback Chayce Crouch has thrown for 252 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions in the first two games while freshman running back Mike Epstein has rushed for 165 yards and two TDs.
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Quarterback Quinton Flowers has 398 yards passing and four touchdowns with just one interception in the first two games, but his accuracy (55.6%) needs to get better. Flowers is tied with Andre Hall for the second-most rushing yards in school history at 2,731, and owns 50 career TD passes. Senior wide receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling has caught 10 balls for 106 yards in the first two games. The Bulls rushing attack is off to a slow start with just 153 yards in the close win against FCS member Stony Brook last time out. Senior D’Ernest Johnson had 99 yards in the opener against San Jose State, but stumbled to 15 against Stony Brook. USF’s defense is led by linebackers Nico Sawtelle and Auggie Sanchez, who have picked off five passes in two games.
Illinois is off to a nice start, but this is a young team that hasn’t been tested yet and has a long way to go. South Florida might be a little rusty and haven’t really shown much in their first two games. I think the Illini has enough to keep this one close.
Pick: Illinois +17.5
TRENDS:
- Fighting Illini are 8-18 ATS in their last 26 road games.
- Fighting Illini are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games.
- Fighting Illini are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in September.
- Fighting Illini are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Fighting Illini are 3-8 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Fighting Illini are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games following a ATS win.
- Fighting Illini are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Fighting Illini are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
- Fighting Illini are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
- Bulls are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Bulls are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big Ten.
- Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Bulls are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Bulls are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss.
- Bulls are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 home games.
- Bulls are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games on grass.
- Bulls are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games in September.
- Bulls are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
- Bulls are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Bulls are 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 games following a bye week.
- Bulls are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
- Bulls are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Bulls are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.
- Under is 4-0 in Fighting Illini last 4 games following a bye week.
- Under is 7-1 in Fighting Illini last 8 non-conference games.
- Under is 7-1 in Fighting Illini last 8 games in September.
- Under is 4-1 in Fighting Illini last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Fighting Illini last 5 games following a ATS win.
- Under is 19-7 in Fighting Illini last 26 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 24-9 in Fighting Illini last 33 games on grass.
- Under is 5-2 in Fighting Illini last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Under is 7-3 in Fighting Illini last 10 games following a straight up win.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Bulls last 5 vs. Big Ten.
- Over is 10-1 in Bulls last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-1 in Bulls last 6 games following a bye week.
- Over is 9-2 in Bulls last 11 home games.
- Over is 4-1 in Bulls last 5 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 8-2 in Bulls last 10 games on grass.
- Over is 4-1 in Bulls last 5 games following a ATS loss.
- Over is 5-2 in Bulls last 7 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 5-2 in Bulls last 7 games following a straight up win.
- Over is 10-4 in Bulls last 14 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 11-5 in Bulls last 16 games overall.
