On January 20, 2025, Donald Trump was sworn in for a second, non-consecutive term. Since then, one question keeps popping up in policy circles and the gambling industry alike: is illegal gambling finally being pushed back, or is it still gaining ground?
The honest answer is that it depends on what you mean by “illegal gambling.” The traditional image of a backroom bookie is only a slice of today’s market. In practice, the illegal economy includes offshore online casinos, unlicensed online sportsbooks, and a huge universe of unregulated machines sometimes labeled “skill games.” When you look at that broader picture, the evidence suggests illegal gambling is not disappearing. It is changing shape.
The best snapshot we have says the illegal market is still massive
In 2025, the American Gaming Association (AGA) published a major study estimating that Americans wager over $673 billion a year with illegal and unregulated operators, generating about $53.9 billion in annual revenue for those operators and costing states an estimated $15.3 billion in lost taxes.
This is not a “since Trump” time series in the strict sense, but it is the clearest nationwide measurement taken during his current term, and it strongly indicates the black market remains deeply entrenched.
Legal betting keeps expanding, but illegal operators keep finding daylight
One of the big arguments for legalization is that regulated sportsbooks and iGaming should pull consumers away from illegal options. “There is some truth to that, and even the AGA notes improvements in channeling parts of sports betting into legal markets,” as reported by Lucas from ListOfAllBookmakers.com.
But the same AGA research also frames a stubborn reality: illegal and unregulated gambling still captures nearly a third of the overall market in revenue terms. That is why, even with more states regulating more products, policymakers are not treating illegal gambling as a problem that is naturally fading away.
Enforcement pressure is real, and it is getting louder
During 2025, state officials publicly urged stronger federal action against offshore gambling. For example, Nevada’s attorney general joined a bipartisan effort asking the US Department of Justice to help address illegal offshore gaming, pointing to tools like the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act (UIGEA) to disrupt access and payments.
The FBI also issued a public warning about illegal offshore betting and casino sites, emphasizing consumer risks and organized crime connections.
Those signals matter because they suggest governments believe the problem remains large enough to warrant escalation, not a victory lap.
A key complication: the market is mutating into legal gray zones
Since early 2025, prediction markets offering event-based contracts have become a major flashpoint, with states arguing that some offerings amount to illegal gambling under state law.
Even if some of this activity is not “illegal” under federal commodities rules, the growth of these products adds a new channel where gambling-like behavior can expand faster than the usual regulatory playbook.
So is illegal gambling going up or down since Trump became president?
If you want a simple arrow, up or down, the data does not responsibly allow it yet. Trump’s current term began in January 2025, and comprehensive national estimates are periodic rather than monthly.
What we can say, based on the strongest available evidence, is this:
- Illegal and unregulated gambling remains extremely large in 2025, with AGA estimating $673.6B in annual wagers and nearly one-third market share.
- Policymakers and federal law enforcement are still sounding alarms and pushing enforcement, which strongly implies they do not see illegal gambling as retreating on its own.
- The market appears to be shifting rather than collapsing, with offshore platforms and new “gray” products complicating the idea that legalization automatically kills the black market.
If you tell me whether you mean illegal sports betting, illegal online casinos, or unregulated machines, I can tighten this into a sharper piece focused on that segment, with more specific numbers from the AGA report.
