Miami (1-1) at Boston (1-1)
When: Saturday, May 21st, 2022
Where: TD Garden,
Boston, MA
Time: 8:30 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Boston -6/208.5
The blowouts in this year’s NBA Playoffs has continued into the Eastern Conference finals, as the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics have traded easy wins during the first two games of their best-of-seven series. The scene shifts to TD Garden on Saturday night, with Miami losing homecourt advantage after Thursday’s 127-102 setback against the Celtics at home in Game 2. That was a big bounce back from a Boston team that manhandled in the third quarter of Game 1 and went on to lose by 11. The biggest difference in Game 2 was the return of Marcus Smart (foot) and Al Horford (COVID-19 protocol) back into the Celtics lineup after missing the opener. Boston led by 29 late in the second half and 70-45 at halftime.
There really hasn’t been any homecourt advantage between these teams the last two seasons. Since the beginning of the 2020-21 campaign, the road team has won six of the eight matchups and are 6-2 ATS in that span. These teams have also played a lot of high-scoring games, with the total going Over in nine of the last 12. The total for each game has gone up. It was 203.5 in Game 1, 206 in Game 2 and now is set at 207.5 for Saturday’s Game 3. Boston is a 6.5-point favorite in this contest and when they are favored by 6-6.5 points, they are 6-3 ATS, while Miami is 1-2 ATS when getting this many points.
Miami looked like a completely different team in Game 2 and were thoroughly outplayed. Jimmy Butler led the Heat with 29 points on 11-of-18 shooting, but the team only connected 44.2 percent of their shots from the field and 10-of-34 from long range. Gabe Vincent and Victor Oladipo added 14 points apiece while Tyler Herro chipped in 11. However, Herro recorded a team-worst -33 rating while on the floor. Miami is 18-8 ATS in their last 26 games as a road underdog.
Jayson Tatum led the Celtics with 27 points in Game 2, but it was Smart with the huge game in his return. Smart recorded an impressive 24 points, 12 assists, nine rebounds and three steals in 40 minutes. He also connected on five 3-pointers and committed just one turnover. Jaylen Brown also had 24 points to go along with eight rebounds, while Grant Williams contributed 19 points in 32 minutes off the bench. Boston is 7-2 ATS in their last nine games on one day of rest.
I still think these teams are evenly matched with Boston having a slight edge. I think 6.5 points is a little too much of an advantage and I fully expect Butler to have a big bounce back game. I’ll take the points.
Check out who Bobby Babowski has on his Free NBA Picks page for today.
Pick: Heat +6.5
