Gonzaga (10-1) at Arizona (10-1)
When: Saturday, December 14th, 2019
Where: McKale Center,
Tuscon, Arizona
Time: 10:00 ET | TV: ESPN2
Opening Odds: Arizona -1/151
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The Gonzaga Bulldogs might get knocked for dominating a weak conference, but the school doesn’t shy away from big non-conference games. Gonzaga is in the middle of a tough stretch of games against ranked teams and will be at No. 14 Arizona on Saturday night before hosting North Carolina on Wednesday. The Wildcats pose a challenge with freshmen Nico Mannion, Josh Green and Zeke Nnaji – all top 14 pro prospects according to 247sports. The Zags recruited at least three Wildcats: Duke transfer forward Chase Jeter, UC Irvine grad transfer Max Hazzard and sophomore guard Brandon Williams, who is out for the season with a knee injury. Arizona is 101-8 in its last 109 games at McKale Center, including 61-1 in its last 62 non-conference tilts. The Wildcats bounced back from their first loss of the season – a 63-58 setback at Baylor – and dominated Nebraska-Omaha 99-49. The Zags bring the nation’s longest active road winning streak (10) into Tuscon. Gonzaga lost at McKale Center in 2000 (101-87) and in 2014 (66-63 in overtime). but beat the Wildcats 91-74 in last year’s Maui Invitational. The Bulldogs have eight consecutive wins against Pac-12 teams after defeating then No. 11 Oregon and then No. 22 Washington earlier this season.
Gonzaga boasts forwards Filip Petrusev and Killian Tillie, the team’s top two scorers that produce nearly 30 points per game, and freshmen Drew Timme and Anton Watson, who combine for another 17 points. Sophomore guard Joel Ayayi (10.1 scoring average) has stepped up and scored in double digits in five of the past six games and is averaging 13.5 points, 6.5 rebounds and 3.8 assists during the stretch. Petrusev leads the Bulldogs in scoring (15.8), rebounding (8.5) and blocked shots (13 total) while junior forward Corey Kispert and Tillie are tied for second (13.7). The Zags are fifth in the nation in scoring (85.9).
The Wildcats defense limits opponents to 36.7% shooting (16th nationally), including 32.2% beyond the arc. The offense is led by 6’10” center Chase Jeter and Nnaji, a 6’11” freshman who had a streak of 17 consecutive made field goals earlier this season. Nnaji leads the team in scoring (15.9), rebounding (6.7), field goal percentage (70.7), and blocks (1.0) but he’s only hit one 3-pointer in five attempts. Top recruits Mannion (14.9 points, 6.2 assists) and Green (12.9 points, 5.1 rebounds) will have a big test ahead of them on Saturday.
Both teams have been tested already and lost, but this is by far the biggest challenge. Gonzaga is a little more prepared for this and has the coaching edge in Mark Few. The Wildcats have been strong defensively, but its come against a pretty weak schedule. Look for the Bulldogs to outscore Arizona in a close battle.
Pick: Gonzaga +3
Bulldogs are 22-10-1 ATS in their last 33 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game.
Wildcats are 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
Wildcats are 12-5-3 ATS in their last 20 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Wildcats are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
Wildcats are 17-37-2 ATS in their last 56 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Wildcats are 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 Saturday games.
Wildcats are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game.
Wildcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Wildcats are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog.
Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win.
Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Over is 5-0 in Bulldogs last 5 overall.
Over is 4-0 in Bulldogs last 4 games following a straight up win.
Over is 5-0 in Bulldogs last 5 games as a favorite.
Over is 5-1 in Bulldogs last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Over is 13-5 in Bulldogs last 18 Saturday games.
Over is 5-2 in Bulldogs last 7 games following a ATS win.
Under is 5-2 in Bulldogs last 7 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Under is 4-0 in Wildcats last 4 Saturday games.
Under is 9-1-1 in Wildcats last 11 games as a home underdog.
Under is 9-2 in Wildcats last 11 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
Over is 8-2 in Wildcats last 10 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Wildcats last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Under is 4-1 in Wildcats last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Over is 4-1 in Wildcats last 5 home games.
Over is 3-1-1 in Wildcats last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
Under is 5-2 in Wildcats last 7 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Under is 7-3 in Wildcats last 10 games following a ATS win.
